Hydrologic Outlook
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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000 FGUS75 KBOU 251800 ESFBOU COC001-031-035-057-059-069-087-115-123-302359- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 1159 AM MDT WED JUN 25 2014 IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. ...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 6/28/2014 - 9/30/2014 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL : CHANCES OF EXCEEDING : FLOOD CATERGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE (%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :SOUTH PLATTE RIVER SOUTH PLATTE 7.0 9.0 11.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 DENVER 11.0 12.5 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 HENDERSON 10.0 11.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 KERSEY 10.0 11.5 12.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 WELDONA 10.0 11.0 13.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 BALZAC 10.0 11.0 13.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 JULESBURG 10.0 12.0 13.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :PLUM CREEK SEDALIA 8.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BEAR CREEK MORRISON 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 SHERIDAN 8.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :CLEAR CREEK GOLDEN 10.0 13.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 DERBY 9.0 10.5 11.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :N FK BIG THOMPSON RIVER DRAKE 6.0 7.0 8.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER FORT COLLINS 9NW 7.5 9.0 10.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 FORT COLLINS 10.5 11.5 13.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 GREELEY 8.0 9.5 11.0 : 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :NORTH PLATTE RIVER NORTHGATE 8.0 9.5 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. ...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID PERIOD: 6/28/2014 - 9/30/2014 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :SOUTH PLATTE RIVER SOUTH PLATTE 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.1 DENVER 4.4 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.6 6.1 6.6 HENDERSON 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.9 7.3 7.9 8.2 KERSEY 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.6 6.3 7.2 9.0 WELDONA 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.5 5.1 5.8 7.7 BALZAC 3.4 3.4 3.4 4.0 5.5 7.1 8.5 JULESBURG 4.4 4.4 4.7 5.8 6.7 7.7 8.2 :PLUM CREEK SEDALIA 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.9 5.2 :BEAR CREEK MORRISON 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.1 SHERIDAN 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.8 4.0 :CLEAR CREEK GOLDEN 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.5 DERBY 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.2 :N FK BIG THOMPSON RIVER DRAKE 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.5 :CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER FORT COLLINS 9NW 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.8 FORT COLLINS 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.8 4.6 7.1 GREELEY 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 4.0 4.9 8.2 :NORTH PLATTE RIVER NORTHGATE 4.8 4.8 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.6 5.9 THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE. ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/BOU. THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TOWARD THE END OF JULY. $$ TH

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