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FGUS73 KFGF 151708
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Eastern North Dakota/Grand Forks ND
1108 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018
...DEVILS LAKE OUTLOOK FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL...
Devils and Stump Lakes
Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook
Due to the continued dry conditions, the threat for significant and
impactful snowmelt flooding remains low across the Devils Lake basin.
Abnormally dry conditions have persisted across the basin since
February 2017 and may continue into spring 2018. Soil moisture, base
streamflow, and current snowpack across the basin remain near to
below normal. The remaining winter and early spring should remain
cooler than normal with precipitation near average.
The National Weather Service is providing long-range probabilistic
hydrologic outlooks for Devils and Stump lakes between January
and September. They will not be provided between October and
The AHPS graphics associated with this outlook will be on the web
no later than 10:30 AM this Friday under the experimental
long-range flood risk tab at...
Depending on the season, the high or low water probabilities may
be omitted due to their applicability to the hydrologic situation.
Refer to the scheduling section farther on in this message.
.Chances of Devils and Stump Lakes rising above given lake levels...
The probability of exceeding a given lake level is the percentage
of maximum lake level rises that are above that level for all the
years that were run through the model using the precipitation
and temperatures for those years during the valid period of the
Interpretation Aid...There is a 50 percent chance that Devils
Lake will rise above 1450.3 feet during the valid period and
only a 5 percent chance that it will rise above 1451.3 feet.
Probabilities for exceeding listed lake levels
FROM FEBRUARY 11, 2018 TO SEPTEMBER 30, 2018
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
CREEL BAY 1450.1 1450.1 1450.2 1450.3 1450.5 1450.9 1451.3
EAST STUMP LAKE 1450.1 1450.1 1450.2 1450.3 1450.5 1450.9 1451.3
.Current and previous record high lake levels...
* The current height of Devils Lake at Creel Bay is 1449.57 feet
* The current height of Stump Lake near Lakota is 1449.58 feet
* The most recent USGS provisional record daily average height
for Devils Lake at the Creel Bay gage:
...1454.30 feet on June 27 of 2011
* Previous records:
...1452.05 feet on June 27 of 2010
...1450.93 feet on June 27 of 2009
...1449.20 feet on May 9 of 2006
...1449.18 feet on June 17 of 2004
...1449.17 feet on August 2 of 2005
* For more high water marks...see the USGS flood tracking charts at:
- Between January and May, only the high water exceedances will be
provided with valid periods ending at the end of September.
- Special Spring Flood and Water Management Outlooks will be issued
in late February and, two weeks later, in early March.
- For June and July, both high-water and low-water exceedances
will be provided.
- For August and September, only the low-water exceedances will be
provided with valid periods ending at the end of November.
- No probability of exceedance/non-exceedance information will be
given from October through December, since lake freeze-up
levels will be given in the fall outlooks previously issued.
Wind and Wave forecasts for Devils and Stump lakes are available for
a seven day period when the lakes are sufficiently ice-free at:
The long-range probabilistic outlook is based on high and low lake
levels that were calculated for the valid period using multiple
scenarios of temperature and precipitation from 1949 to 2012 and
current conditions of the lake, snowcover (in winter), and soil
A YouTube video on "How to Interpret River Outlook Products" is at:
By providing the complete range of lake level probabilities, the
amount of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can
be determined. These probabilistic outlooks are part of Noah`s
National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
This outlook is also presented as probability graphs of lake height
for the full period as well as weekly probabilities. The outlook
graphics and explanations that help in interpreting these outlooks
are available from...the NWS Grand Forks AHPS web page at:
When available (see schedule above) the AHPS graphics for monthly
outlooks should be available by mid-morning or early afternoon.
Monthly probabilistic outlooks are issued on the Friday of the week
following the first Thursday after the 15th of the month. Special
spring flood and water management outlooks are issued on Thursday
afternoons in late February and then again, two weeks later in
March to coincide with the spring snow melt. Due to the lake
freeze-up will not be issued from October through December.
If you have any questions, contact the NWS at 701-772-0720
You can follow us on Facebook at: www.facebook.com/NWSGrandForks
and on Twitter at: @NWSGrandForks.
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