Hydrologic Outlook
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
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000 FGUS73 KGRB 052059 ESFGRB WIC009-015-029-037-041-061-067-069-071-073-075-078-083-085-087-097- 115-125-135-137-139-141-061200- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 300 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015 ...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK... THIS FLOOD OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NWS GREEN BAY SERVICE AREA. IT COVERS THE TIME PERIOD FOR MARCH THROUGH EARLY JUNE 2015. THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...YELLOW...WISCONSIN...MENOMINEE... WOLF...LITTLE WOLF...WAUPACA AND OCONTO. ...FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY... LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NORMAL FOR THE REST OF MARCH. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF MARCH. THE DRIER THAN NORMAL TRENDS SUPPORT ONLY MINOR FLOODING DUE TO SNOWMELT ON A FEW AREA RIVERS AT THIS TIME. ICE JAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING BREAK UP THIS SPRING. A TURN TO A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN WHICH COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS ON A SATURATED OR FROZEN GROUND WOULD SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL RUNOFF AND POSSIBLE URBAN SMALL STREAM FLOODING. ---------------------------------------------------------------- IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. ...TABLE 1 PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 3/9/2015 - 6/7/2015 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :MENOMINEE RIVER FLOW3 9.0 11.0 13.0 41 32 9 10 <5 <5 NIAW3 13.0 15.0 16.0 33 32 10 10 6 <5 VLCM4 15.0 17.0 19.0 26 27 9 9 <5 <5 MCAW3 15.0 18.0 19.0 73 56 10 12 7 <5 :OCONTO RIVER OCTW3 9.0 12.0 14.0 6 13 <5 <5 <5 <5 :WOLF RIVER LGLW3 11.5 12.5 14.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 SHIW3 11.0 13.5 15.0 70 58 <5 9 <5 <5 NEWW3 9.0 10.5 11.1 32 46 <5 <5 <5 <5 :LITTLE WOLF RIVER ROYW3 5.0 8.0 10.0 16 38 <5 <5 <5 <5 :WAUPACA RIVER WPCW3 6.0 7.5 9.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :FOX RIVER APLW3 8.4 9.0 10.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :WISCONSIN RIVER RRLW3 11.0 13.5 15.0 13 13 <5 6 <5 <5 ROTW3 25.0 27.0 28.0 6 13 <5 6 <5 <5 WIRW3 12.0 13.5 14.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :YELLOW RIVER BBCW3 12.0 15.9 16.6 38 70 <5 10 <5 6 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. ...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... : : CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD: 3/9/2015 - 6/7/2015 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :MENOMINEE RIVER FLOW3 7.1 7.3 8.1 8.7 9.8 11.0 11.9 NIAW3 10.3 10.9 11.8 12.7 13.9 15.5 16.3 VLCM4 11.0 11.8 12.8 13.6 15.3 17.2 18.1 MCAW3 13.7 14.1 15.0 15.7 17.5 18.4 19.7 :OCONTO RIVER OCTW3 6.5 6.7 7.0 7.4 7.8 8.8 9.5 :WOLF RIVER LGLW3 9.4 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.4 10.6 10.7 SHIW3 9.8 10.1 10.9 11.4 11.9 13.0 13.4 NEWW3 7.6 7.8 8.2 8.7 9.2 9.7 9.9 :LITTLE WOLF RIVER ROYW3 3.0 3.1 3.5 4.0 4.7 5.3 5.9 :WAUPACA RIVER WPCW3 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.9 3.4 3.7 4.1 :FOX RIVER APLW3 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.8 7.2 7.6 7.8 :WISCONSIN RIVER RRLW3 8.4 8.7 9.1 9.5 10.5 11.2 11.9 ROTW3 18.9 19.3 20.3 21.8 22.7 24.2 25.1 WIRW3 5.6 5.7 6.5 7.2 8.0 9.9 10.2 :YELLOW RIVER BBCW3 6.8 7.3 8.5 10.9 13.1 15.1 15.4 IN TABLE 4 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... : CHANCE OF EXCEEDING FLOWS (KCFS) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD: 3/9/2015 - 6/7/2015 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :MENOMINEE RIVER FLOW3 5.23 5.54 6.84 7.93 9.98 12.76 14.67 NIAW3 6.85 7.86 9.30 10.93 13.64 17.40 19.38 VLCM4 8.13 9.35 11.31 12.86 16.43 20.83 23.13 MCAW3 10.32 11.30 13.52 15.57 20.79 23.77 28.35 .END THESE NUMBERS ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SPRING SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SNOW COVER AND SOIL MOISTURE...AS WELL AS 30 TO 90 DAY OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. ...CONDITIONS AS OF MARCH 5TH 2015... SNOW COVER HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY DUE TO COLD DRY CONDITIONS. SNOW DEPTH RANGED FROM 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER LOCATIONS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 8 WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER VILAS COUNTY. BETWEEN 3 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW COVER IS OVER THE REST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. WATER EQUIVALENT OF THE SNOW ON THE GROUND RANGES FROM 1.0 TO 2.5 INCHES OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MAINLY 1.0 INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. FROST DEPTHS VARY DUE TO SNOW COVER AND SOIL TYPE...BUT DID GO DEEPER IN FEBRUARY DUE TO THE LACK OF SNOW COVER AND COLD TEMPERATURES. AS OF MARCH 5TH FROST DEPTH MAINLY RANGED FROM 22 TO 45 INCHES. ...FORECAST CONDITIONS... FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND MAY TURN ABOVE NORMAL FOR PART OF NEXT WEEK. WEEK CLIPPER SYSTEMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL PRODUCE MINOR ACCUMULATION. FOR THE REST OF MARCH...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED WHILE PRECIPITATION MAY BE NEAR NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR APRIL AND MAY. ACCESS TO LONG TERM FORECAST INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT: CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV ADDITIONAL AHPS INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT: WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB/AHPS WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/NCRFC $$ TH/AW

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National Weather Service
Green Bay Weather Forecast Office
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Green Bay, WI 54313
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Page last modified: 5-Mar-2015 8:59 PM
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