Hydrologic Outlook
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
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000 FGUS73 KGRB 192211 ESFGRB WIC009-015-029-037-041-061-067-069-071-073-075-078-083-085-087-097- 115-125-135-137-139-141-201200- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 400 PM CST THU FEB 19 2015 ...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK... THIS FLOOD OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NWS GREEN BAY SERVICE AREA. IT COVERS THE TIME PERIOD FOR LATE FEBRUARY THROUGH MAY 2015. THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...YELLOW...WISCONSIN...MENOMINEE... WOLF...LITTLE WOLF...WAUPACA AND OCONTO. ...FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY... DUE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL TRENDS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF FEBRUARY AND EVEN INTO MUCH OF MARCH...ICE BREAK UP FOR AREA RIVERS WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED DEEPER INTO MARCH...AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO EARLY APRIL FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN RIVERS AND STREAMS. ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS LATE FALL INTO EARLY WINTER DID PRODUCE MINOR ICE JAMS ON SEVERAL NORTHEAST WISCONSIN RIVERS. THE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION LATER WINTER HAD DIMINISHED THIS ICE JAM THREAT...BUT THE POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE AGAIN THIS SPRING DURING BREAK UP. THE COLD AND DRY TRENDS SUPPORT ONLY MINOR FLOODING DUE TO SNOWMELT ON A FEW AREA RIVERS AT THIS TIME. ---------------------------------------------------------------- IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. ...TABLE 1 PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 2/23/2015 - 5/24/2015 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :MENOMINEE RIVER FLOW3 9.0 11.0 13.0 50 32 9 10 <5 <5 NIAW3 13.0 15.0 16.0 50 32 13 10 7 <5 VLCM4 15.0 17.0 19.0 29 27 12 9 <5 <5 MCAW3 15.0 18.0 19.0 72 55 15 12 10 <5 :OCONTO RIVER OCTW3 9.0 12.0 14.0 10 13 <5 <5 <5 <5 :WOLF RIVER LGLW3 11.5 12.5 14.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 SHIW3 11.0 13.5 15.0 73 56 <5 9 <5 <5 NEWW3 9.0 10.5 11.1 38 44 <5 <5 <5 <5 :LITTLE WOLF RIVER ROYW3 5.0 8.0 10.0 21 36 <5 <5 <5 <5 :WAUPACA RIVER WPCW3 6.0 7.5 9.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :FOX RIVER APLW3 8.4 9.0 10.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :WISCONSIN RIVER RRLW3 11.0 13.5 15.0 21 16 <5 6 <5 <5 ROTW3 25.0 27.0 28.0 13 15 <5 6 <5 <5 WIRW3 12.0 13.5 14.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :YELLOW RIVER BBCW3 12.0 15.9 16.6 58 69 9 10 <5 6 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. ...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... : : CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD: 2/23/2015 - 5/24/2015 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :MENOMINEE RIVER FLOW3 7.0 7.1 8.0 9.2 9.9 11.2 12.3 NIAW3 10.1 10.6 11.9 13.0 14.0 15.7 16.8 VLCM4 10.8 11.6 12.6 14.2 15.4 17.4 18.5 MCAW3 13.6 14.1 15.0 16.2 17.4 19.3 20.0 :OCONTO RIVER OCTW3 6.5 6.7 7.1 7.5 8.2 9.1 9.6 :WOLF RIVER LGLW3 9.4 9.5 9.8 10.1 10.4 10.7 10.8 SHIW3 9.9 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.3 13.4 13.7 NEWW3 7.9 8.1 8.5 8.8 9.4 10.0 10.2 :LITTLE WOLF RIVER ROYW3 3.2 3.3 3.7 4.2 4.9 6.1 6.4 :WAUPACA RIVER WPCW3 2.4 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.5 3.9 4.2 :FOX RIVER APLW3 6.3 6.4 6.5 7.0 7.4 7.9 7.9 :WISCONSIN RIVER RRLW3 8.5 8.7 9.3 10.0 10.9 12.2 12.7 ROTW3 19.5 20.0 21.0 22.3 24.2 25.6 27.7 WIRW3 5.8 6.5 6.9 7.9 9.6 10.8 12.3 :YELLOW RIVER BBCW3 7.1 8.0 9.9 12.4 14.8 16.0 16.4 IN TABLE 4 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... : CHANCE OF EXCEEDING FLOWS (KCFS) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD: 2/23/2015 - 5/24/2015 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :MENOMINEE RIVER FLOW3 5.01 5.29 6.64 8.81 10.24 13.06 15.64 NIAW3 6.50 7.38 9.47 11.66 13.72 17.79 20.62 VLCM4 7.88 9.04 10.89 14.00 16.70 21.46 24.08 MCAW3 10.10 11.41 13.53 16.99 20.64 26.73 29.27 .END THESE NUMBERS ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SPRING SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SNOW COVER AND SOIL MOISTURE...AS WELL AS 30 TO 90 DAY OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. ...CONDITIONS AS OF FEBRUARY 19TH 2015... AS OF FEBRUARY 19TH...SNOW DEPTH RANGED FROM 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER LOCATIONS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 8 WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER VILAS COUNTY. BETWEEN 3 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW COVER IS OVER THE REST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. WATER EQUIVALENT OF THE SNOW ON THE GROUND RANGES FROM 1.0 TO 2.0 INCHES OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...LESS THAN 1.0 INCHES ELSEWHERE. FROST DEPTHS VARY DUE TO SNOW COVER AND SOIL TYPE...BUT MAINLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 35 INCHES. DUE TO A SERIES OF COLD ARCTIC INTRUSIONS OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FEBRUARY...FROST DEPTHS WILL LIKELY GO DEEPER IN THE COMING WEEKS IF SNOWFALL REMAINS LIGHT. ...FORECAST CONDITIONS... FOR THE REST OF FEBRUARY...WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED. FOR MARCH...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED WHILE PRECIPITATION MAY BE NEAR NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR APRIL AND MAY. ACCESS TO LONG TERM FORECAST INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT: CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV ...NEXT FLOOD REPORT ISSUANCE... THE NEXT OFFICIAL FLOOD REPORT WILL BE MARCH 5TH 2015. ADDITIONAL AHPS INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT: WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB/AHPS WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/NCRFC $$ TH/AW

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Green Bay Weather Forecast Office
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Green Bay, WI 54313
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Page last modified: 19-Feb-2015 10:11 PM
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