Hydrologic Outlook
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
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000 FGUS73 KGRB 022008 ESFGRB WIC125-085-041-037-075-069-067-083-073-115-125-078-029-141-097- 135-087-061-009-137-139-015-071-040000- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 145 pm CST THU MAR 2 2017 ...Spring Flood and Water Resource Outlook 2... This flood outlook is for the NWS Green Bay service area. It covers the time period from March 5th to June 3rd. This includes the following rivers...Yellow...Wisconsin...Wolf...Little Wolf...Waupaca...Fox...Oconto and Menominee. ...Forecast... After a cold start for the start of March...temperatures are expected to climb back above normal the latter half of this weekend into early next week and then near normal for much of next week. The next chance for widespread precipitation will be toward next Monday. The outlook for March into May indicates slightly above normal for each temperatures and precipitation. ...Surface Conditions... Soil conditions remain saturated. A significant warm up mid February which produce a rapid snow melt, followed with colder temperatures and snow late February into March 1st, led to a widely varied frost depth. Frost depth still remains around 8 to 20 inches, however some locations are reporting a thawed region in that frost depth. Due to recent snowfall events...snow depth ranged from 3 to 8 inches across the region...with locally higher amounts across far North Central Wisconsin. Snow water content of the snow was less than an inch...but locally higher 1 to 2 inches over North Central Wisconsin ...Current Streamflow conditions... Above normal precipitation over North Central Wisconsin in 2016 which included late fall...combined with runoff from the robust January and February thaws have reduce the snow pack but were producing above normal stream flows. ...Flood summary and potential threats... The periods of above normal temperatures for each January and February have reduced the snowpack across the region. Runoff from recent snowfall and any future heavy snowfall will cause area rivers to rise again, however assuming warming temperatures, flooding concerns may eventually begin to focus more on excessive rainfall this spring. Assuming conditions listed above...there is 25 to 50 percent chance of minor flooding this spring again for part of the Wolf river from Shawano to Lake Poygan and the Yellow River in Wood County as well as the Menominee River. -------------------------------- In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/05/2017 - 06/03/2017 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Wisconsin River Merrill 11.0 13.5 15.0 : 7 17 <5 5 <5 <5 Rothschild 25.0 27.0 28.0 : 6 16 <5 7 <5 <5 Wisconsin Rapids 12.0 13.5 14.5 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Yellow River Babcock 12.0 15.9 16.6 : 38 71 <5 13 <5 8 :Oconto River Oconto 9.0 12.0 14.0 : 14 16 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Upper Wolf River Langlade 11.5 12.5 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Wolf River Shiocton 12.0 13.5 15.0 : 25 35 6 10 <5 <5 New London 9.0 10.5 11.1 : 45 48 <5 5 <5 <5 :Little Wolf River Royalton 5.0 8.0 10.0 : 31 41 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Waupaca River Waupaca 6.0 7.5 9.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Fox River Appleton 8.4 9.0 10.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Menominee River Florence 9.0 11.0 13.0 : 26 31 8 10 <5 <5 Niagara 13.0 15.0 16.0 : 20 28 7 7 <5 <5 Vulcan 15.0 17.0 19.0 : 14 25 <5 6 <5 <5 McAllister 15.0 18.0 19.0 : 48 55 7 9 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/05/2017 - 06/03/2017 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Wisconsin River Merrill 7.5 7.9 8.3 8.9 9.8 10.3 11.8 Rothschild 18.3 19.1 19.8 21.3 22.4 23.7 25.4 Wisconsin Rapids 5.5 5.7 6.0 7.3 8.1 9.9 10.3 :Yellow River Babcock 5.9 7.0 8.2 10.9 13.3 15.2 15.6 :Oconto River Oconto 6.8 6.8 7.3 7.7 8.5 9.5 10.4 :Upper Wolf River Langlade 9.1 9.2 9.5 9.7 10.0 10.4 10.5 :Wolf River Shiocton 9.7 9.9 10.6 11.5 12.0 13.0 13.7 New London 7.7 8.0 8.4 8.9 9.4 9.9 10.1 :Little Wolf River Royalton 3.2 3.3 3.7 4.3 5.1 5.8 6.8 :Waupaca River Waupaca 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.5 4.1 4.5 4.9 :Fox River Appleton 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.3 7.7 7.9 7.9 :Menominee River Florence 6.1 6.6 7.3 8.0 9.1 10.6 11.1 Niagara 9.3 10.1 10.7 11.6 12.8 14.7 15.3 Vulcan 9.7 10.5 11.3 12.4 13.9 15.8 16.9 McAllister 12.8 13.3 14.3 14.9 16.1 17.3 18.9 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/05/2017 - 06/03/2017 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Wisconsin River Merrill 5.3 5.3 5.3 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.6 Rothschild 14.2 14.1 14.1 13.7 13.5 13.3 12.6 Wisconsin Rapids 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.1 1.4 1.3 :Yellow River Babcock 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 :Oconto River Oconto 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.7 :Upper Wolf River Langlade 8.1 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.8 :Wolf River Shiocton 6.8 6.6 5.8 4.7 4.0 3.6 3.5 New London 4.3 4.1 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.2 2.2 :Little Wolf River Royalton 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 :Waupaca River Waupaca 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 :Fox River Appleton 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.9 :Menominee River Florence 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 Niagara 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.5 Vulcan 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.5 McAllister 9.7 9.7 9.6 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.2 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction service. Visit our web site weather.gov/grb for more weather and water information. Additional web sites and information. Latest snowpact from NOHRCS www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa Current streamflows. waterdata.usgs.gov/wi/nwis/rt Long term forecast information. www.cpc.noaa.gov An optional flood outlook may be issued later March if needed. $$

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Green Bay Weather Forecast Office
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Green Bay, WI 54313
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Page last modified: 2-Mar-2017 8:08 PM
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