Hydrologic Outlook
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
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000 FGUS73 KGRB 012356 ESFGRB WIC125-085-041-037-075-069-067-083-073-115-125-078-029-141-097- 135-087-061-009-137-139-015-071-DDHHMM- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 654 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. ...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 05/01/2016 - 07/30/2016 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL : CHANCES OF EXCEEDING : FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE (%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :WISCONSIN RIVER MERRILL 11.0 13.5 15.0 : 12 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 ROTHSCHILD 25.0 27.0 28.0 : 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 WISCONSIN RAPIDS 12.0 13.5 14.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :YELLOW RIVER BABCOCK 12.0 15.9 16.6 : 25 20 6 6 <5 <5 :OCONTO RIVER OCONTO 9.0 12.0 14.0 : 13 8 5 <5 <5 <5 :UPPER WOLF RIVER LANGLADE 11.5 12.5 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :WOLF RIVER SHIOCTON 12.0 13.5 15.0 : 16 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 NEW LONDON 9.0 10.5 11.1 : 23 16 <5 <5 <5 <5 :LITTLE WOLF RIVER ROYALTON 5.0 8.0 10.0 : 22 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 :WAUPACA RIVER WAUPACA 6.0 7.5 9.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :FOX RIVER APPLETON 8.4 9.0 10.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MENOMINEE RIVER FLORENCE 9.0 11.0 13.0 : 16 24 <5 8 <5 <5 NIAGARA 13.0 15.0 16.0 : 14 21 <5 6 <5 <5 VULCAN 15.0 17.0 19.0 : 8 16 <5 <5 <5 <5 MCALLISTER 15.0 18.0 19.0 : 27 38 <5 <5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. ...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID PERIOD: 05/01/2016 - 07/30/2016 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :WISCONSIN RIVER MERRILL 7.1 7.1 7.3 8.1 9.4 11.1 12.1 ROTHSCHILD 17.0 17.0 17.5 18.8 21.0 23.8 25.4 WISCONSIN RAPIDS 4.7 4.7 5.0 5.9 6.8 9.1 10.4 :YELLOW RIVER BABCOCK 3.4 4.2 6.1 8.9 12.0 14.4 16.5 :OCONTO RIVER OCONTO 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.9 8.1 9.5 12.4 :UPPER WOLF RIVER LANGLADE 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.2 9.5 10.1 10.6 :WOLF RIVER SHIOCTON 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.3 11.7 12.7 13.2 NEW LONDON 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.4 9.0 9.6 10.0 :LITTLE WOLF RIVER ROYALTON 2.1 2.2 2.7 3.9 4.7 5.8 6.4 :WAUPACA RIVER WAUPACA 1.8 2.1 2.5 3.2 4.0 4.5 5.0 :FOX RIVER APPLETON 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.7 7.3 7.9 7.9 :MENOMINEE RIVER FLORENCE 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.1 8.3 9.7 10.3 NIAGARA 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.8 11.8 13.8 14.4 VULCAN 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.6 12.6 14.5 15.5 MCALLISTER 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.8 15.1 16.5 17.4 IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. ...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID PERIOD: 05/01/2016 - 07/30/2016 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :WISCONSIN RIVER MERRILL 5.3 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.4 ROTHSCHILD 14.0 13.8 13.5 13.1 12.6 12.3 12.2 WISCONSIN RAPIDS 3.3 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.3 2.1 2.0 :YELLOW RIVER BABCOCK 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 :OCONTO RIVER OCONTO 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 :UPPER WOLF RIVER LANGLADE 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.7 :WOLF RIVER SHIOCTON 5.5 4.4 4.0 3.7 3.4 3.3 3.1 NEW LONDON 3.6 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.0 :LITTLE WOLF RIVER ROYALTON 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 :WAUPACA RIVER WAUPACA 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 :FOX RIVER APPLETON 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 :MENOMINEE RIVER FLORENCE 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 NIAGARA 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.8 5.8 VULCAN 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.6 MCALLISTER 10.1 9.9 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.3 THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE. VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/GRB FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER INFORMATION. THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TOWARD THE END OF THIS MONTH. $$

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