Hydrologic Outlook
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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000 FGUS73 KICT 021518 ESFICT KSC01-009-015-017-019-035-049-053-073-077-079-095-099-105-113-115- 125-133-155-159-167-169-173-191-205-207-032300- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Wichita KS 920 AM CST THU MAR 2 2017 ...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2... This outlook applies to the Wichita Hydrologic Service area (HSA) which includes the Arkansas River...Smoky Hill River...Verdigris River and Neosho River and their tributaries in central...south central and southeast Kansas. ...There is a normal potential of flooding along most streams and rivers this spring... Outlooks are routinely issued in February and March to give advanced notice of possible flooding. They are based on soil moisture, snowpack magnitude and streamflow at the time the outlook is issued. The vast majority of flood events in the Wichita Service Area result from short periods of higher intensity precipitation or longer periods of excessive precipitation. This outlook is valid from March 2nd through March 16th, 2017. The outlook is based on current climatological conditions. However, heavy rainfall at any time can lead to flooding even when the snowmelt flood potential is low. Convection, not snowmelt is often the primary driver of spring flooding in the service area. Scattered light snow accumulations of 1 inch or less fell across parts of central KS this past Sunday but quickly melted-off by that afternoon. There has been no big snowfall event this season. Snowfall this winter has been below normal. There is no current snowpack across the entire service area. Over the winter months, frozen soils have been minimal in depth and occurrence. Soils are not frozen at this time. Precipitation over the last 3 months has been 50 to 90 percent of its normal value over southeast KS. While central KS has received a variance between 25 to 110 percent of its normal precipitation. However in contrast, south central KS has seen slightly above normal precipitation. This area has received near normal moisture to 200 percent of its normal values. During the last month, central and southeast KS received less than 50 percent of its normal precipitation. While south central KS saw between 50 to 130 percent of its normal precipitation. Departure from normal precipitation over the last two weeks has run from 0.30 to 1.20 inches below normal in southeast KS and 0.30 to 0.50 inches below normal in central KS. Near normal precipitation to 1 inch above normal amounts were seen over south central KS. In other words, this equates to both central and southeast KS receiving less than 25 percent of their normal precipitation and south central KS receiving between 100 to 200 percent of its normal values. Above normal temperatures have been noted across the region over the past two weeks especially during February 16th-22nd when temperatures were 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Soil moisture February anomaly data shows levels are near normal over most of the service area with slight dryness in extreme southeast KS. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor issued March 2nd 2017... (http://www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu) shows the drought conditions becoming Moderately Dry (D1) in parts of southeast KS with the rest of the southeast service area maintaining Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions. Otherwise, drought is not present across most of the remainder of the service area except in Russell County. Light precipitation fell across central and southeast KS this past Sunday and convective rains of mainly less than a quarter of an inch scattered across southeast KS and south central KS on Tuesday evening. Not much moisture was added to the soils to improve any of the dry conditions. The Climate Prediction Center`s (CPC) U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook valid through end of May 2017, indicates no drought development likely across eastern KS. The U.S. Geological Survey 28-day average streamflow conditions map shows near normal flows across the entire service area. (http://waterwatch.usgs.gov). The area reservoirs are slightly in their flood control pools. The U.S. Corps of Engineers data indicates that the Corps reservoirs currently have an average of 99 percent of their flood-control storage available at this time. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Outlook for the 3 month period March-April-May, calls for equal chances of normal, above normal, and below normal precipitation. Stronger probabilities of above normal temperatures are favored across the area during this period. The 8-14 day CPC Outlook (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) indicates over a 70 percent probability of above normal temperatures. Slightly below normal precipitation is favored over the western sections of the service area with the remainder of the area calling for equal chances of normal, above normal, and below normal precipitation. A warming trend is expected into the weekend with relatively dry conditions. High temperatures are expected to be 10 to 20 degrees above normal for the start of the weekend into next week. In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/2/2017 - 05/24/2017 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Arkansas River Great Bend 12.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Hutchinson 8.0 13.0 19.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 Haven 10.0 11.0 12.0 : 12 7 8 5 <5 <5 Derby 12.0 15.0 16.2 : 16 9 7 <5 <5 <5 Mulvane 16.5 19.0 21.0 : 19 10 15 <5 12 <5 Oxford 17.0 20.0 23.0 : 29 15 13 7 <5 <5 Arkansas City 11.0 17.0 21.0 : 42 35 11 8 <5 <5 :Walnut Creek Albert 24.0 25.0 25.7 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cow Creek Lyons 18.0 22.0 24.7 : 6 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 Hutchinson 9.5 10.5 12.5 : 40 23 28 8 <5 <5 :Little Arkansas River Alta Mills 22.0 25.0 27.0 : 18 17 9 10 <5 <5 Halstead 25.0 27.0 29.0 : 13 10 7 5 <5 <5 Sedgwick 22.0 25.0 26.0 : 15 12 10 5 8 <5 :Cowskin Creek Wichita At 119th 18.0 22.0 24.0 : 19 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Ninnescah South Fork Murdock 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 38 18 17 <5 <5 <5 :Ninnescah River Peck 17.0 21.0 26.0 : 20 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 Belle Plaine 23.0 24.5 26.0 : 16 7 9 <5 5 <5 :Whitewater River Towanda 22.0 25.0 28.0 : 24 13 13 8 <5 <5 Augusta 21.0 25.0 30.0 : 11 9 7 5 <5 <5 :West Branch Walnut River El Dorado 21.0 22.0 24.0 : <5 7 <5 6 <5 <5 :Walnut River El Dorado 19.0 23.0 25.6 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Augusta 23.0 28.0 36.0 : 10 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 Winfield 18.0 22.0 29.0 : 27 23 18 13 6 5 Arkansas City 18.0 22.0 28.0 : 17 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Chikaskia River Corbin 10.0 19.0 28.0 : 48 37 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Fall River Fredonia 17.0 27.0 36.0 : 18 22 5 5 <5 <5 :Verdigris River Altoona 19.0 21.0 26.0 : 16 19 <5 <5 <5 <5 Independence 30.0 47.6 53.0 : 23 29 <5 <5 <5 <5 Coffeyville 18.0 23.0 26.5 : 13 21 <5 5 <5 <5 :Cottonwood River Florence 22.0 27.0 32.0 : 31 18 <5 <5 <5 <5 Cottonwood Falls 9.0 11.0 18.0 : 28 24 18 16 <5 <5 Plymouth 32.0 34.0 37.0 : 30 26 20 11 <5 <5 :Neosho River Iola 15.0 21.0 27.0 : 20 24 <5 7 <5 <5 Chanute 23.0 28.5 35.0 : 29 35 13 17 <5 <5 Erie 29.0 32.0 36.0 : 33 38 23 29 13 16 Parsons 21.0 23.0 32.0 : 45 51 34 41 <5 <5 Oswego 17.0 20.0 25.0 : 45 47 32 35 7 9 :Salt Creek Barnard 21.0 23.3 24.9 : 14 19 13 17 <5 <5 :Saline River Lincoln 30.0 36.0 38.5 : 31 33 8 8 <5 <5 :Smoky Hill River Lindsborg 21.0 29.0 33.9 : 28 33 <5 <5 <5 <5 Mentor 20.0 24.0 28.0 : 18 28 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Mulberry Creek Salina 24.0 26.0 27.4 : 33 39 22 26 <5 <5 :Smoky Hill River New Cambria 27.0 30.0 33.1 : 32 40 19 28 10 10 Russell 18.0 20.0 38.0 : <5 7 <5 6 <5 <5 Ellsworth 20.0 24.0 27.0 : 6 13 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Saline River Russell 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 8 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/2/2017 - 05/24/2017 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Arkansas River Great Bend 1.3 1.3 1.5 2.7 4.6 6.2 8.5 Hutchinson 1.2 1.3 1.7 2.6 3.8 4.8 7.9 Haven 2.3 2.6 3.6 5.6 7.1 10.6 11.7 Derby 2.0 3.2 3.8 5.6 9.1 14.4 15.5 Mulvane 7.0 8.0 8.6 10.5 13.6 22.1 23.7 Oxford 8.4 9.2 11.3 13.6 17.7 20.8 21.5 Arkansas City 4.5 5.3 7.5 9.7 14.2 17.3 19.0 :Walnut Creek Albert 2.9 3.0 3.1 6.8 10.5 14.7 17.8 :Cow Creek Lyons 4.5 4.5 8.6 12.9 15.4 17.3 18.5 Hutchinson 1.9 2.3 5.0 8.8 10.8 11.2 12.0 :Little Arkansas River Alta Mills 0.4 1.1 6.2 13.5 19.9 24.8 26.0 Halstead 6.1 6.6 10.0 16.1 21.4 26.2 27.7 Sedgwick 3.5 4.5 7.4 11.9 16.9 25.1 28.8 :Cowskin Creek Wichita At 119th 7.6 7.6 12.4 13.9 17.2 19.5 19.9 :Ninnescah South Fork Murdock 3.9 4.3 5.1 6.7 9.4 10.6 11.2 :Ninnescah River Peck 3.8 4.3 6.6 10.5 16.4 18.5 20.4 Belle Plaine 10.9 11.4 13.5 16.3 21.3 24.3 26.3 :Whitewater River Towanda 2.7 6.0 9.0 13.1 21.9 25.8 27.0 Augusta 5.4 6.6 8.0 10.0 15.1 21.8 27.2 :West Branch Walnut River El Dorado 6.3 7.3 8.4 10.3 14.6 18.7 21.0 :Walnut River El Dorado 2.6 2.9 3.7 6.6 10.4 12.9 13.9 Augusta 6.3 6.9 7.8 11.9 18.2 23.1 25.2 Winfield 3.5 5.1 7.4 12.1 18.6 25.9 30.3 Arkansas City 4.8 6.2 8.6 12.0 16.1 19.8 20.7 :Chikaskia River Corbin 2.6 3.8 6.7 9.8 12.6 15.6 18.6 :Fall River Fredonia 5.2 6.0 8.1 12.5 15.1 19.2 27.4 :Verdigris River Altoona 6.2 7.2 9.1 12.7 18.5 19.5 20.1 Independence 8.3 10.0 14.9 20.2 29.3 36.6 37.9 Coffeyville 2.2 2.6 5.0 7.6 14.4 18.9 22.2 :Cottonwood River Florence 3.9 4.8 6.8 14.2 24.7 26.3 26.6 Cottonwood Falls 1.6 2.5 3.6 6.0 9.5 13.0 14.2 Plymouth 5.2 8.8 12.4 25.0 33.8 34.4 34.6 :Neosho River Iola 9.0 9.1 9.5 10.8 13.4 18.3 19.7 Chanute 12.8 13.4 15.2 18.6 24.1 30.1 32.8 Erie 17.1 17.7 20.0 24.5 31.3 37.4 38.9 Parsons 12.6 13.4 15.6 20.1 24.6 27.0 28.6 Oswego 10.1 10.4 11.1 16.0 21.6 24.3 26.0 :Salt Creek Barnard 4.8 4.8 7.3 9.6 13.8 23.8 24.3 :Saline River Lincoln 11.4 11.8 16.6 24.6 31.2 34.6 38.3 :Smoky Hill River Lindsborg 6.4 6.5 7.9 17.0 22.2 27.0 27.9 Mentor 4.2 4.7 5.4 13.3 18.4 22.3 22.8 :Mulberry Creek Salina 2.9 3.5 4.9 12.6 25.0 26.6 26.9 :Smoky Hill River New Cambria 13.3 15.8 19.4 22.7 28.8 33.1 33.3 Russell 3.5 3.5 4.0 6.2 9.4 12.1 13.9 Ellsworth 1.4 2.2 3.6 7.2 11.0 15.4 20.7 :Saline River Russell 6.0 6.0 8.1 9.6 12.8 17.4 19.2 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/2/2017 - 05/24/2017 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Salt Creek Barnard 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 :Saline River Lincoln 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.0 10.9 10.9 :Smoky Hill River Lindsborg 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 Mentor 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 :Mulberry Creek Salina 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 :Smoky Hill River New Cambria 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 Russell 3.4 3.4 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Ellsworth 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 :Saline River Russell 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Based upon the above information, there is a normal risk of spring flooding across the Wichita Service Area. This will be the last Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook this year. Visit our home page at www.weather.gov/wichita for more weather and flood information. $$ Salazar

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National Weather Service
Wichita Weather Forecast Office
2142 South Tyler Road
Wichita, KS 67209
(316) 942-3102
Page last modified: 2-Mar-2017 3:18 PM
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