Hydrologic Outlook
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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000 FGUS73 KICT 242018 ESFICT KSC001-009-015-017-021-035-053-079-095-099-111-115-125-133-155-159- 167-169-173-191-205-251800- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 315 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014 In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 7/24/2014 - 10/23/2014 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Arkansas River Great Bend 12.0 16.0 18.3 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Hutchinson 8.0 13.0 19.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Haven 10.0 11.0 12.0 : 7 6 5 <5 <5 <5 Derby 12.0 15.0 16.2 : 8 8 <5 5 <5 <5 Mulvane 16.5 19.0 21.0 : 9 8 5 5 <5 <5 Oxford 17.0 20.0 23.0 : 12 9 6 6 <5 <5 Arkansas City 17.0 23.0 27.0 : 21 21 5 6 <5 <5 :Walnut Creek Albert 24.0 25.0 25.7 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cow Creek Lyons 18.0 22.0 24.7 : 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Little Arkansas River Alta Mills 22.0 25.0 27.0 : 15 16 10 9 <5 <5 Halstead 25.0 27.0 29.0 : 11 9 5 5 <5 <5 Sedgwick 22.0 25.0 26.0 : 12 14 7 8 6 7 :Cowskin Creek Wichita At 119th 18.0 22.0 24.0 : 15 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Ninnescah South Fork Murdock 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 16 16 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Ninnescah River Peck 17.0 21.0 26.0 : 5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 Belle Plaine 23.0 24.5 26.0 : <5 6 <5 5 <5 <5 :Whitewater River Towanda 22.0 25.0 28.0 : 14 15 7 7 <5 <5 Augusta 21.0 25.0 30.0 : 13 12 6 6 <5 <5 :West Branch Walnut River El Dorado 21.0 22.0 24.0 : 9 8 8 6 6 <5 :Walnut River El Dorado 19.0 23.0 25.6 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Augusta 23.0 28.0 36.0 : 12 12 5 <5 <5 <5 Winfield 18.0 22.0 29.0 : 21 23 15 17 7 8 Arkansas City 18.0 22.0 28.0 : 13 17 6 7 <5 <5 :Chikaskia River Corbin 10.0 19.0 28.0 : 25 27 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Fall River Fredonia 17.0 27.0 36.0 : 19 10 8 6 <5 <5 :Verdigris River Altoona 19.0 21.0 26.0 : 12 11 7 5 <5 <5 Independence 30.0 47.6 53.0 : 18 15 <5 <5 <5 <5 Coffeyville 18.0 23.0 26.5 : 14 9 5 <5 <5 <5 :Cottonwood River Florence 22.0 27.0 32.0 : 12 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 Cottonwood Falls 9.0 11.0 18.0 : 15 21 9 14 <5 <5 Plymouth 32.0 34.0 37.0 : 18 25 9 9 <5 <5 :Neosho River Iola 15.0 21.0 27.0 : 18 17 <5 5 <5 <5 Chanute 23.0 28.5 35.0 : 30 23 17 15 <5 <5 Erie 29.0 32.0 36.0 : 28 20 21 16 12 12 Parsons 21.0 23.0 32.0 : 28 24 21 19 <5 <5 Oswego 17.0 20.0 25.0 : 30 24 20 17 6 7 :Salt Creek Barnard 21.0 23.3 24.9 : 7 14 <5 5 <5 <5 :Saline River Lincoln 30.0 36.0 38.5 : <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Smoky Hill River Lindsborg 21.0 29.0 33.9 : 6 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 Mentor 20.0 24.0 28.0 : 6 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Mulberry Creek Salina 24.0 26.0 27.4 : 11 21 9 15 <5 <5 :Smoky Hill River New Cambria 27.0 30.0 33.1 : 10 19 6 17 <5 <5 :Gypsum Creek Gypsum 15.0 19.0 22.0 : 15 19 6 7 <5 <5 :Smoky Hill River Russell 18.0 20.0 38.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Ellsworth 20.0 24.0 27.0 : 12 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Saline River Russell 18.0 20.0 23.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 7/24/2014 - 10/23/2014 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Arkansas River Great Bend 2.0 2.4 2.6 3.5 4.7 7.3 8.2 Hutchinson 1.4 1.7 2.2 3.3 4.6 6.1 7.8 Haven 2.5 3.0 4.0 5.5 6.9 9.2 11.0 Derby 2.0 2.3 3.1 4.9 7.6 11.1 14.5 Mulvane 7.7 7.9 8.4 9.8 12.6 16.5 19.0 Oxford 8.3 8.4 9.4 11.5 14.6 17.6 20.9 Arkansas City 10.1 10.4 11.3 13.1 16.3 19.7 23.0 :Walnut Creek Albert 3.3 3.4 5.4 8.0 12.0 18.1 23.0 :Cow Creek Lyons 4.6 5.0 9.1 14.6 16.5 17.7 18.1 :Little Arkansas River Alta Mills 0.2 0.3 4.7 10.3 17.2 25.1 26.3 Halstead 5.8 5.8 8.5 12.7 18.1 25.6 27.2 Sedgwick 2.9 3.8 6.7 10.5 16.1 23.3 27.1 :Cowskin Creek Wichita At 119th 7.1 7.1 9.7 12.6 15.7 19.4 20.8 :Ninnescah South Fork Murdock 3.9 4.0 4.5 5.2 6.9 8.9 9.8 :Ninnescah River Peck 3.7 3.7 5.1 6.9 11.8 14.5 17.0 Belle Plaine 10.0 10.0 11.1 12.5 16.7 20.2 23.0 :Whitewater River Towanda 2.1 2.7 4.6 7.5 16.5 24.1 26.1 Augusta 4.2 5.0 6.0 10.3 17.8 22.1 26.5 :West Branch Walnut River El Dorado 5.5 5.5 6.9 8.4 11.8 20.1 26.2 :Walnut River El Dorado 1.9 2.0 2.6 3.9 8.2 12.3 16.5 Augusta 5.5 5.5 6.4 9.5 18.7 23.9 28.2 Winfield 1.6 2.2 3.4 8.3 15.7 26.2 31.4 Arkansas City 2.8 3.2 5.3 9.2 15.3 18.9 22.8 :Chikaskia River Corbin 2.1 2.1 3.8 7.3 10.0 12.0 14.9 :Fall River Fredonia 3.3 3.4 4.5 7.9 12.8 25.3 29.7 :Verdigris River Altoona 3.4 3.6 4.8 8.6 13.8 20.1 21.7 Independence 2.7 3.5 7.2 14.9 23.5 39.6 40.6 Coffeyville 0.7 1.0 1.9 4.7 10.7 20.8 23.1 :Cottonwood River Florence 3.2 3.3 3.6 4.9 9.8 23.9 25.4 Cottonwood Falls 0.6 0.6 1.6 2.7 5.4 10.8 13.5 Plymouth 2.7 3.2 7.0 13.0 30.6 33.9 34.6 :Neosho River Iola 7.1 7.2 8.0 10.0 12.3 18.6 20.5 Chanute 8.0 8.7 10.1 14.6 25.2 31.8 34.0 Erie 11.6 12.0 13.6 18.6 30.5 37.1 40.3 Parsons 7.6 8.0 10.3 14.3 21.9 26.2 28.6 Oswego 6.2 6.7 9.2 10.8 18.6 23.2 25.8 :Salt Creek Barnard 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 7.0 10.3 22.3 :Saline River Lincoln 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 12.3 13.1 27.2 :Smoky Hill River Lindsborg 7.4 7.4 7.4 8.5 9.3 13.8 22.7 Mentor 5.0 5.0 5.0 6.3 7.4 13.7 20.8 :Mulberry Creek Salina 4.2 4.2 4.2 5.0 10.5 25.5 26.3 :Smoky Hill River New Cambria 5.7 6.1 9.3 13.8 20.5 27.4 30.4 :Gypsum Creek Gypsum 4.4 4.4 4.4 7.4 10.4 17.5 19.3 :Smoky Hill River Russell 4.0 4.0 4.0 7.3 9.5 13.3 15.9 Ellsworth 1.9 1.9 5.0 7.1 11.3 22.2 23.5 :Saline River Russell 5.0 5.0 5.0 6.8 9.2 9.9 11.6 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction service. Visit our web site weather.gov/ict for more weather and water information. The next outlook will be issued near the 25th of each month. $$

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National Weather Service
Wichita Weather Forecast Office
2142 South Tyler Road
Wichita, KS 67209
(316) 942-3102
Page last modified: 24-Jul-2014 8:18 PM
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