Hydrologic Outlook
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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000 FGUS73 KICT 161445 ESFICT KSC01-009-015-017-019-035-049-053-073-077-079-095-099-105-113-115- 125-133-155-159-167-169-173-191-205-207-172300- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Wichita KS 845 AM CST THU FEB 16 2017 ...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1... This outlook applies to the Wichita Hydrologic Service area (HSA) which includes the Arkansas River...Smoky Hill River...Verdigris River and Neosho River and their tributaries in central...south central and southeast Kansas. ...There is a normal potential of flooding along most streams and rivers this spring... Outlooks are routinely issued in February and March to give advanced notice of possible flooding. They are based on soil moisture, snowpack magnitude and streamflow at the time the outlook is issued. The vast majority of flood events in the Wichita Service Area result from short periods of higher intensity precipitation or longer periods of excessive precipitation. This outlook is valid from February 16th through March 2nd, 2017. The outlook is based on current climatological conditions. However, heavy rainfall at any time can lead to flooding, even when the snowmelt flood potential is low. Convection, not snowmelt is often the primary driver of spring flooding in the service area. Currently we are snow-free across the entire service area. Snowfall this winter season has been below normal. For the season so far, 2-4 inches of accumulated snow has occurred across central KS and parts of south central KS. Mainly 1-2 inches of snow accumulation fell across the rest of south central KS and southeast KS with a few areas only recording less than an inch. Snowfall deficits are between 5 to 10 inches across the area or only receiving 10 to 25 percent of its normal value. Frozen soils have been minimal during this season. Mid to late December frost depth penetration ranged between 1 to 5 inches and the early part of January soils were frozen by 2 to 5 inches. At this time, soils are not frozen. Precipitation over the long term, the past 6 months, is mainly above normal across the area. Generally the area has received 110 to 150 percent of normal moisture. Precipitation over the last 3 months has been 50 to 70 percent of its normal value over the eastern half of the service area. In contast, the western half of the service area has basked in slightly above normal precipitation. In the very short-term this last month, central and south central KS has received between 200 to 400 percent of its normal January precipitation. Southeast KS has received 125 to 200 percent of its normal precipitation. Temperatures have been mostly above normal over the last couple of months by up to 3 degrees above. January soil moisture anomaly data shows a slight surplus in moisture across south central KS. Otherwise soil moisture levels are near normal over the remainder of the service area. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor issued February 16th 2017... (http://www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu) indicates Abnormally Dry Conditions (D0) cover southeast KS and along the OK border counties in south central KS. Otherwise, no drought is present across the remainder of the service area. Light precipitation fell across the area on Monday this week. The Climate Prediction Center`s (CPC) U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook valid through end of April 2017, indicates no drought development likely across eastern KS. The U.S. Geological Survey 28-day average streamflow conditions map shows near normal flows across central and southeast KS while south central KS is experiencing slightly above normal flows. (http://waterwatch.usgs.gov). The area reservoirs are slightly in their flood control pools. The U.S. Corps of Engineers data indicates that the Corps reservoirs currently have an average of 99 percent of their flood-control storage available at this time. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Outlook for the 3 month period March-April-May, calls for equal chances of normal, above normal, and below normal precipitation. Above normal temperatures are favored across the area. The 8-14 day CPC Outlook (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) indicates stronger probabilities leaning toward above normal temperatures and slightly favored above normal precipitation over the area. In the near future, precipitation chances increase by the end of this weekend into Monday night. Light rain amounts expected. In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 02/16/2017 - 04/26/2017 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Arkansas River Great Bend 12.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Hutchinson 8.0 13.0 19.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Haven 10.0 11.0 12.0 : 6 6 5 <5 <5 <5 Derby 12.0 15.0 16.2 : 8 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Mulvane 16.5 19.0 21.0 : 9 5 7 <5 6 <5 Oxford 17.0 20.0 23.0 : 22 8 11 <5 <5 <5 Arkansas City 11.0 17.0 21.0 : 35 25 6 <5 <5 <5 :Walnut Creek Albert 24.0 25.0 25.7 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cow Creek Lyons 18.0 22.0 24.7 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Hutchinson 9.5 10.5 12.5 : 36 13 26 <5 <5 <5 :Little Arkansas River Alta Mills 22.0 25.0 27.0 : 14 8 7 5 <5 <5 Halstead 25.0 27.0 29.0 : 12 6 5 <5 <5 <5 Sedgwick 22.0 25.0 26.0 : 9 6 6 <5 6 <5 :Cowskin Creek Wichita At 119th 18.0 22.0 24.0 : 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Ninnescah South Fork Murdock 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 20 9 8 <5 <5 <5 :Ninnescah River Peck 17.0 21.0 26.0 : 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Belle Plaine 23.0 24.5 26.0 : 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Whitewater River Towanda 22.0 25.0 28.0 : 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Augusta 21.0 25.0 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :West Branch Walnut River El Dorado 21.0 22.0 24.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Walnut River El Dorado 19.0 23.0 25.6 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Augusta 23.0 28.0 36.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Winfield 18.0 22.0 29.0 : 23 10 8 5 <5 <5 Arkansas City 18.0 22.0 28.0 : 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Chikaskia River Corbin 10.0 19.0 28.0 : 38 27 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Fall River Fredonia 17.0 27.0 36.0 : 16 15 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Verdigris River Altoona 19.0 21.0 26.0 : 11 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 Independence 30.0 47.6 53.0 : 19 17 <5 <5 <5 <5 Coffeyville 18.0 23.0 26.5 : 8 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cottonwood River Florence 22.0 27.0 32.0 : 17 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 Cottonwood Falls 9.0 11.0 18.0 : 16 8 8 <5 <5 <5 Plymouth 32.0 34.0 37.0 : 14 11 7 <5 <5 <5 :Neosho River Iola 15.0 21.0 27.0 : 10 13 <5 <5 <5 <5 Chanute 23.0 28.5 35.0 : 21 19 9 8 <5 <5 Erie 29.0 32.0 36.0 : 22 20 16 15 9 8 Parsons 21.0 23.0 32.0 : 37 34 29 28 <5 <5 Oswego 17.0 20.0 25.0 : 38 31 28 21 5 6 :Salt Creek Barnard 21.0 23.3 24.9 : 14 16 11 15 <5 <5 :Saline River Lincoln 30.0 36.0 38.5 : 27 27 8 8 <5 <5 :Smoky Hill River Lindsborg 21.0 29.0 33.9 : 26 23 <5 <5 <5 <5 Mentor 20.0 24.0 28.0 : 10 18 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Mulberry Creek Salina 24.0 26.0 27.4 : 25 33 16 15 <5 <5 :Smoky Hill River New Cambria 27.0 30.0 33.1 : 26 35 16 19 6 7 Russell 18.0 20.0 38.0 : <5 7 <5 6 <5 <5 Ellsworth 20.0 24.0 27.0 : 7 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Saline River Russell 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 01/26/2017 - 04/26/2017 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Arkansas River Great Bend 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.8 4.1 5.9 6.8 Hutchinson 1.3 1.4 1.8 2.6 3.6 4.7 5.0 Haven 2.6 2.8 3.8 4.8 7.1 8.2 11.2 Derby 2.1 2.7 4.0 5.4 7.9 11.3 14.7 Mulvane 7.1 7.7 8.8 10.2 12.8 16.3 22.8 Oxford 8.7 9.4 10.9 12.5 16.1 20.6 21.0 Arkansas City 4.7 5.5 7.4 9.0 12.4 16.3 17.2 :Walnut Creek Albert 3.5 3.5 3.6 6.1 9.9 15.1 18.4 :Cow Creek Lyons 4.6 5.2 8.1 11.3 15.0 16.4 17.4 Hutchinson 2.2 3.2 5.3 8.0 10.7 11.1 11.3 :Little Arkansas River Alta Mills 1.3 3.7 7.6 11.9 17.1 24.2 25.8 Halstead 6.5 8.0 11.2 14.8 19.4 26.0 27.2 Sedgwick 4.3 5.2 6.8 10.3 14.8 20.9 27.4 :Cowskin Creek Wichita At 119th 7.8 9.4 11.5 13.6 16.5 18.3 19.2 :Ninnescah South Fork Murdock 4.1 4.1 4.6 5.6 7.1 9.8 10.8 :Ninnescah River Peck 4.5 4.5 6.1 9.2 13.9 17.1 19.0 Belle Plaine 11.4 11.4 12.7 14.9 18.4 22.2 24.3 :Whitewater River Towanda 3.0 5.0 7.9 11.6 15.2 23.4 24.4 Augusta 5.2 6.1 7.5 9.4 11.1 16.8 18.4 :West Branch Walnut River El Dorado 6.2 7.4 8.2 9.1 11.5 14.7 17.6 :Walnut River El Dorado 2.8 3.0 3.5 4.4 6.9 10.1 11.3 Augusta 6.4 6.7 7.4 9.1 14.1 18.5 21.5 Winfield 3.3 4.9 7.3 11.4 17.7 21.1 24.0 Arkansas City 4.9 6.2 8.4 10.8 14.5 17.5 18.7 :Chikaskia River Corbin 2.7 3.7 6.1 8.5 11.7 13.9 16.5 :Fall River Fredonia 5.3 5.3 7.8 9.8 13.8 19.4 24.9 :Verdigris River Altoona 4.7 5.1 8.6 10.3 15.4 19.5 20.1 Independence 7.3 7.7 13.6 17.3 26.6 35.3 38.5 Coffeyville 1.7 1.8 3.8 6.3 12.4 17.3 19.3 :Cottonwood River Florence 4.4 4.9 5.7 10.8 18.1 25.6 26.0 Cottonwood Falls 2.1 2.4 3.0 4.7 6.6 10.7 12.0 Plymouth 6.8 7.7 9.4 17.0 26.9 33.9 34.2 :Neosho River Iola 7.6 8.0 9.1 9.9 11.6 15.2 19.1 Chanute 10.1 10.7 13.9 16.9 21.4 27.9 32.1 Erie 13.9 14.6 18.5 22.6 27.4 35.7 38.3 Parsons 10.0 11.1 14.2 18.0 24.1 26.6 27.9 Oswego 8.2 9.3 10.7 13.3 21.1 23.8 25.2 :Salt Creek Barnard 4.9 4.9 7.6 9.3 13.9 23.8 24.3 :Saline River Lincoln 11.3 12.9 13.8 19.7 31.2 34.7 38.4 :Smoky Hill River Lindsborg 6.3 6.9 8.4 13.4 21.2 23.6 27.4 Mentor 4.0 4.6 6.0 10.5 17.8 19.8 22.7 :Mulberry Creek Salina 2.9 3.1 5.2 9.0 23.9 26.4 26.7 :Smoky Hill River New Cambria 11.6 13.5 17.5 22.9 27.4 31.0 33.9 Russell 3.5 3.5 4.0 6.1 9.0 12.0 16.3 Ellsworth 1.5 1.5 3.0 5.9 9.0 15.0 21.1 :Saline River Russell 5.8 5.8 6.5 8.6 11.5 15.4 18.1 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 01/26/2017 - 04/26/2017 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Salt Creek Barnard 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 :Saline River Lincoln 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.1 11.0 10.9 10.9 :Smoky Hill River Lindsborg 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 Mentor 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 :Mulberry Creek Salina 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 :Smoky Hill River New Cambria 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Russell 3.5 3.5 3.4 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Ellsworth 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 :Saline River Russell 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Based upon the above information, there is a normal risk of spring flooding across the Wichita Service Area. The next scheduled Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook will be issued March 2nd. Visit our home page at www.weather.gov/wichita for more weather and flood information. $$ Salazar

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National Weather Service
Wichita Weather Forecast Office
2142 South Tyler Road
Wichita, KS 67209
(316) 942-3102
Page last modified: 16-Feb-2017 2:45 PM
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