Hydrologic Outlook
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
1 of 2 available versions  First Hydrologic Outlook Previous Hydrologic Outlook  Print this page Close this Window

NOTE: This product is more than 24 hours old.
000 FGUS73 KICT 141403 ESFICT KSC001-009-015-017-019-035-049-053-073-077-079-095-099-105-113-115- 125-133-155-159-167-169-173-191-205-207-282100- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Wichita KS 900 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 ...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 3... This outlook applies to the Wichita Hydrologic Service area (HSA) which includes the Arkansas River...Smoky Hill River...Verdigris River and Neosho River and their tributaries in central...south central and southeast Kansas. ...The chances for river flooding over central, south central, and southeast Kansas have a near normal risk of flooding this Spring. However, there is a slight above normal risk for flooding in far southeast Kansas... Outlooks are routinely issued in February and March to give advanced notice of possible flooding. They are based on soil moisture, snowpack magnitude and streamflow at the time the outlook is issued. The vast majority of flood events in the Wichita Service Area result from short periods of higher intensity precipitation or longer periods of excessive precipitation. This outlook is valid from March 14th through March 28th, 2024. The outlook is based on current climatological conditions. However, heavy rainfall at any time can lead to flooding even when the snowmelt flood potential is low. Convection, not snowmelt is often the primary driver of spring flooding in the service area. Recent Conditions: There is no snowpack across the service area. Most of the HSA area received near normal to around 200 percent of its normal seasonal snowfall. This winter season we saw a two week period of deep frozen soils of around 8 to 12 inches across the area. Soils are not frozen at this time nor do we expect any future occurrences as we jump into spring. Therefore this will not play a factor in spring runoff. The 90-day precipitation was above normal across the service area. The percent of normal precipitation varied from 110 to 200 percent of normal. This relates to departures mainly totaling at 0.75 to 2.25 inches above normal with slightly higher values of 2.25 to 3 inches across the Flint Hills. Over the last two weeks, most of the service area received between 70 to 150 percent of its normal precipitation. Mean temperatures during the last 2 weeks have been above normal over the entire service area. The departure from normal values across central and south central Kansas were 2 to 4 degrees above and warmer in southeast Kansas by 6 to 8 degrees above normal. Soil moisture across the HSA is near normal. CPC continues to show soil moisture ranked between the 30th to 70th percentile over the area. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor issued the 14th of March 2024, shows a slight improvement in drought conditions from 2 weeks ago. This was due to some localized heavy rains that occurred in parts of central and southeast Kansas this past week. However, in south central Kansas abnormal dryness spread where dry weather from the past couple of months combined with warm and windy conditions. Areas of Severe Drought (D2) located around Reno/McPherson and Chautauqua Counties in south central Kansas and southeast Kansas respectively have decreased in drought coverage. The Moderate Drought (D1) conditions surrounding the smaller areas of D2 have decreased in extent over southeast Kansas. Only a few counties, Greenwood and northern Elk, remained free of drought or abnormal dryness. Drought conditions have greatly improved from this time last year. (http://www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu) The U.S. Geological Survey 28-day average streamflow map shows streams across southeast Kansas are experiencing normal to above normal flows. Basins across central and south central Kansas are mainly experiencing below normal flows with a few areas of exception that have near normal flows. http://waterwatch.usgs.gov) The U.S. Corps of Engineers data indicate reservoir storage is near normal. Reservoirs currently have near 100 percent of their flood- control storage available for runoff from heavy rainfall events. Future Conditions: The U.S. Seasonal Drought outlook valid through the end of May 2024, indicates improvements in drought conditions during the period. Expect most drought areas to dissipate with a few drought areas to improve by at least 1 category. There are chances of storms late this afternoon in southeast Kansas depending on the frontal passage. Then expect dry seasonably cool with temperatures near or slightly above normal through mid-week. The next chances of precipitation will be next week in the Wednesday night to Thursday time frame. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Outlook for the 3 month period March-April-May shows equal chances of above, near, or below normal temperatures across Kansas. CPC shows chances of slightly favoring above normal precipitation during the period. The 8-14 day Outlook for the period March 20th through the 26th... (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) CPC indicates equal chances of above, near, or below normal temperatures across Kansas. There is a slight lean toward seeing above normal precipitation over most of the HSA with a small area in south central Kansas along the border counties having a near normal chance of precipitation. In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/14/2024 - 06/10/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Arkansas River Great Bend 12.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Hutchinson 8.0 13.0 19.0 : 5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Haven 10.0 11.0 12.0 : 8 12 7 8 5 5 Derby 12.0 15.0 16.2 : 13 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 Mulvane 16.5 19.0 21.0 : 14 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 Oxford 17.0 20.0 23.0 : 26 18 10 7 <5 <5 Arkansas City 11.0 17.0 21.0 : 36 31 8 5 <5 <5 :Walnut Creek Albert 24.0 25.0 25.7 : 7 <5 5 <5 5 <5 :Cow Creek Lyons 18.0 22.0 24.7 : 5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 Hutchinson 9.5 10.5 12.5 : 42 20 26 7 <5 <5 :Little Arkansas River Alta Mills 22.0 25.0 27.0 : 15 19 9 12 <5 <5 Halstead 25.0 27.0 29.0 : 13 14 6 9 <5 <5 Sedgwick 22.0 25.0 26.0 : 11 14 6 7 <5 <5 :Cowskin Creek Wichita At 119th 18.0 22.0 24.0 : 14 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Ninnescah South Fork Murdock 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 18 10 5 <5 <5 <5 :Ninnescah River Peck 17.0 21.0 26.0 : 10 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 Belle Plaine 23.0 24.5 26.0 : 8 7 5 <5 <5 <5 :Slate Creek Wellington 19.0 22.0 23.5 : 50 39 26 14 7 <5 :Whitewater River Towanda 22.0 25.0 28.0 : 24 16 15 11 6 <5 Augusta 21.0 25.0 30.0 : 16 15 10 9 5 <5 :West Branch Walnut River El Dorado 21.0 22.0 24.0 : 18 14 17 12 15 9 :Walnut River El Dorado 19.0 23.0 25.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Augusta 23.0 28.0 36.0 : 15 14 <5 <5 <5 <5 Winfield 18.0 22.0 29.0 : 28 25 19 19 7 9 Arkansas City 18.0 22.0 28.0 : 16 14 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Chikaskia River Corbin 10.0 19.0 28.0 : 33 39 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Fall River Fredonia 17.0 27.0 36.0 : 32 38 9 11 <5 <5 :Verdigris River Altoona 19.0 21.0 26.0 : 24 26 7 7 <5 <5 Independence 30.0 47.6 53.0 : 32 37 <5 <5 <5 <5 Coffeyville 18.0 23.0 26.5 : 17 28 5 10 <5 <5 :Cottonwood River Florence 22.0 27.0 32.0 : 30 25 7 <5 <5 <5 Cottonwood Falls 9.0 11.0 18.0 : 37 32 24 21 <5 <5 Plymouth 32.0 34.0 37.0 : 31 29 14 11 <5 <5 :Neosho River Iola 15.0 21.0 27.0 : 43 37 <5 9 <5 <5 Chanute 23.0 28.5 35.0 : 44 51 21 22 <5 5 Erie 29.0 32.0 36.0 : 41 47 29 34 15 19 Parsons 21.0 23.0 32.0 : 56 56 40 47 <5 <5 Oswego 17.0 20.0 25.0 : 55 55 35 39 8 10 :Salt Creek Barnard 21.0 23.3 24.9 : 8 24 7 18 <5 <5 :Saline River Lincoln 30.0 36.0 38.5 : 11 22 <5 9 <5 <5 :Smoky Hill River Lindsborg 21.0 29.0 33.9 : 21 38 8 7 <5 <5 Mentor 20.0 24.0 28.0 : 14 36 11 17 <5 <5 :Mulberry Creek Salina 24.0 26.0 27.4 : 21 39 12 36 5 6 :Smoky Hill River New Cambria 27.0 30.0 33.1 : 24 37 17 29 6 9 Russell 18.0 20.0 38.0 : <5 9 <5 5 <5 <5 Ellsworth 20.0 24.0 27.0 : 5 9 <5 6 <5 <5 :Saline River Russell 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/14/2024 - 06/10/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Arkansas River Great Bend 0.7 0.8 1.3 3.5 5.4 7.3 8.7 Hutchinson 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.8 3.8 5.1 8.2 Haven 2.3 2.9 3.8 4.7 6.6 9.4 12.1 Derby 1.9 2.5 3.6 5.3 9.0 12.8 13.9 Mulvane 6.7 7.5 8.4 10.2 14.1 17.5 18.9 Oxford 8.6 9.6 10.7 12.7 17.3 20.2 21.2 Arkansas City 4.5 5.5 7.0 8.7 13.1 16.5 18.4 :Walnut Creek Albert 3.6 3.7 5.7 9.6 15.6 21.4 25.8 :Cow Creek Lyons 3.9 3.9 6.8 10.2 13.6 17.5 18.0 Hutchinson 2.1 3.5 5.9 9.0 10.6 11.2 11.8 :Little Arkansas River Alta Mills 0.2 0.7 6.9 12.2 17.7 24.8 26.1 Halstead 6.0 7.4 10.4 14.8 19.6 26.5 27.3 Sedgwick 4.7 6.0 7.4 10.8 16.5 22.8 25.7 :Cowskin Creek Wichita At 119th 7.1 7.5 10.9 13.6 16.0 19.0 19.5 :Ninnescah South Fork Murdock 3.6 3.6 4.7 5.5 7.3 9.0 10.1 :Ninnescah River Peck 3.0 4.0 5.2 7.5 12.1 17.3 19.1 Belle Plaine 9.8 11.0 12.8 14.5 18.2 22.4 24.6 :Slate Creek Wellington 4.0 5.3 8.8 19.2 22.2 23.2 23.8 :Whitewater River Towanda 1.9 4.1 8.5 12.7 22.0 26.6 28.6 Augusta 3.9 5.8 7.9 9.8 14.8 25.5 30.3 :West Branch Walnut River El Dorado 6.5 7.8 8.1 11.3 15.6 28.2 45.0 :Walnut River El Dorado 2.1 3.3 3.8 7.7 11.5 13.9 17.4 Augusta 6.3 6.9 8.2 13.8 19.7 24.9 27.2 Winfield 1.9 3.1 6.5 11.1 19.2 27.3 30.6 Arkansas City 3.9 5.1 8.2 11.4 15.7 19.7 20.6 :Chikaskia River Corbin 2.3 2.3 4.7 7.5 11.2 13.9 15.7 :Fall River Fredonia 5.7 5.9 9.5 14.1 18.4 26.5 30.0 :Verdigris River Altoona 6.4 7.3 9.7 15.6 18.9 20.5 21.5 Independence 9.3 10.2 15.6 23.3 32.7 38.3 41.6 Coffeyville 3.2 3.5 5.0 8.5 16.4 19.4 23.6 :Cottonwood River Florence 3.6 4.4 6.0 14.9 24.1 26.7 27.4 Cottonwood Falls 1.7 2.2 3.4 7.1 10.8 14.0 14.4 Plymouth 5.8 8.5 15.0 27.9 33.3 34.3 34.6 :Neosho River Iola 8.4 9.1 10.8 14.0 17.5 19.0 19.5 Chanute 10.2 12.3 17.7 21.7 27.2 32.5 34.9 Erie 15.2 16.5 22.5 26.9 33.3 37.6 41.7 Parsons 11.0 12.0 18.9 21.8 25.1 27.5 29.2 Oswego 9.1 9.7 13.5 18.0 21.6 24.5 26.2 :Salt Creek Barnard 4.3 4.3 4.7 7.2 11.0 19.0 24.1 :Saline River Lincoln 10.6 10.6 11.0 13.8 23.7 30.5 34.8 :Smoky Hill River Lindsborg 6.4 6.4 7.4 8.5 16.9 27.5 30.2 Mentor 3.8 4.0 4.8 6.0 16.1 26.0 27.4 :Mulberry Creek Salina 3.8 3.8 4.3 6.9 23.3 26.3 27.2 :Smoky Hill River New Cambria 8.2 10.5 14.8 21.5 25.5 31.9 33.8 Russell 3.7 3.7 3.9 6.4 10.5 13.5 16.8 Ellsworth 1.3 1.4 3.9 6.6 10.0 16.1 21.3 :Saline River Russell 4.1 4.1 4.4 7.0 8.9 15.6 17.8 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Based upon the above information, there is a near normal chance of flooding across most of the HSA this spring with a slightly above normal chance in parts of southeast Kansas. A substantial part of this assessment is factoring in the soil moisture conditions and the seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks. Any flooding that does occur this Spring will be largely dependent on the intensity and placement of precipitation and thunderstorms. This will be the last Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook this year. $$ Salazar

Close this window


The National Weather Service prepares its forecasts and other services in collaboration with agencies like the US Geological Survey, US Bureau of Reclamation, US Army Corps of Engineers, Natural Resource Conservation Service, National Park Service, ALERT Users Group, Bureau of Indian Affairs, and many state and local emergency managers across the country. For details, please click here.

National Weather Service
Wichita Weather Forecast Office
2142 South Tyler Road
Wichita, KS 67209
(316) 942-3102
Page last modified: 14-Mar-2024 2:03 PM
Disclaimer
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities