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Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
320 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024
...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2...
This outlook applies to the Wichita Hydrologic Service area (HSA)
which includes the Arkansas River...Smoky Hill River...Verdigris
River and Neosho River and their tributaries in central...south
central and southeast Kansas.
...The chances for river flooding over central, south central, and
southeast Kansas will have a near normal risk of flooding this
Spring...
Outlooks are routinely issued in February and March to give
advanced notice of possible flooding. They are based on soil
moisture, snowpack magnitude and streamflow at the time the outlook
is issued. The vast majority of flood events in the Wichita Service
Area result from short periods of higher intensity precipitation or
longer periods of excessive precipitation.
This outlook is valid from February 29th through March 13th, 2024.
The outlook is based on current climatological conditions. However,
heavy rainfall at any time can lead to flooding even when the
snowmelt flood potential is low. Convection, not snowmelt is often
the primary driver of spring flooding in the service area.
Recent Conditions:
No snowpack exists over the service area at this time. Most of the
service area received near normal to around 200 percent of its normal
seasonal snowfall.
This winter season we saw a two week period of deep frozen soils
around 8 to 12 inches across the area. Currently soils are not frozen
nor do we expect any future occurrences. Therefore this will not play
a factor in spring runoff.
The 90-day precipitation was above normal across the service area.
The percent of normal precipitation varied from 110 to 200 percent of
normal. This relates to departures mainly being at 0.75 to 2.25
inches above normal with slightly higher values of 2.25 to 3 inches
across the Flint Hills.
However, these last two weeks have been fairly dry. The service area
has received less than 25 percent of its normal precipitation.
Soil moisture across the HSA is near normal. CPC continues to show
soil moisture ranked between the 30th to 70th percentile over the
area. The relative soil moisture data did show an area across the
Flint Hills have slightly elevated soil moisture.
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor issued the 29th of February 2024,
shows no change in drought conditions from 2 weeks ago. Small areas
of Severe Drought (D2) are located around Reno and Chautauqua
Counties in south central Kansas and southeast Kansas. Moderate
Drought (D1) conditions are present surrounding the smaller areas of
D2 which are slightly more expansive along with Abnormally Dry
conditions. A group of south central Kansas counties are drought-
free. Drought conditions have greatly improved from this time last
year.
(http://www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu)
The U.S. Geological Survey 28-day average streamflow map
shows streams across southeast Kansas are experiencing above normal
to much above normal flows. Basins across central and south central
Kansas show a mix of below normal, normal, and above normal flows.
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov)
The U.S. Corps of Engineers data indicate reservoir storage is
slightly below normal. Reservoirs currently have near 100 percent of
their flood-control storage available for runoff from heavy rainfall
events.
Future Conditions:
The U.S. Seasonal Drought outlook valid through the end of May 2024,
indicates an improvement in drought conditions during the period.
Large areas within current drought is expected to dissipate with the
remaining drought areas to remain but improve by at least 1 category.
There are slight chances for precipitation this evening into tonight
over southeast Kansas. Looking at sprinkles and light rain showers.
Thereafter, dry conditions until a possible system moving in for the
end of next week into the next weekend which could bring a better
chance of precipitation to the area.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Outlook for the 3 month period
March-April-May shows equal chances of above normal, normal, or below
normal temperatures across Kansas. Precipitation-wise there is a lean
toward above normal precipitation for the service area.
The 8-14 day Outlook for the period March 8th through the 14th...
(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) CPC indicates a 40-50 percent
probability of above normal temperatures and the same chances for
above normal precipitation for the HSA.
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 02/29/2024 - 05/27/2024
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Arkansas River
Great Bend 12.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Hutchinson 8.0 13.0 19.0 : 6 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Haven 10.0 11.0 12.0 : 9 11 7 8 5 5
Derby 12.0 15.0 16.2 : 12 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
Mulvane 16.5 19.0 21.0 : 13 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
Oxford 17.0 20.0 23.0 : 20 15 10 6 <5 <5
Arkansas City 11.0 17.0 21.0 : 29 23 7 5 <5 <5
:Walnut Creek
Albert 24.0 25.0 25.7 : 6 <5 5 <5 <5 <5
:Cow Creek
Lyons 18.0 22.0 24.7 : 5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
Hutchinson 9.5 10.5 12.5 : 32 20 22 7 <5 <5
:Little Arkansas River
Alta Mills 22.0 25.0 27.0 : 14 18 10 12 <5 <5
Halstead 25.0 27.0 29.0 : 12 14 7 9 <5 <5
Sedgwick 22.0 25.0 26.0 : 11 12 5 6 <5 <5
:Cowskin Creek
Wichita At 119th 18.0 22.0 24.0 : 13 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Ninnescah South Fork
Murdock 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 16 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Ninnescah River
Peck 17.0 21.0 26.0 : 12 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
Belle Plaine 23.0 24.5 26.0 : 9 7 6 <5 <5 <5
:Slate Creek
Wellington 19.0 22.0 23.5 : 51 37 27 13 6 <5
:Whitewater River
Towanda 22.0 25.0 28.0 : 19 14 9 9 <5 <5
Augusta 21.0 25.0 30.0 : 9 11 6 6 <5 <5
:West Branch Walnut River
El Dorado 21.0 22.0 24.0 : 9 10 9 8 8 5
:Walnut River
El Dorado 19.0 23.0 25.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Augusta 23.0 28.0 36.0 : 11 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
Winfield 18.0 22.0 29.0 : 28 24 18 17 6 6
Arkansas City 18.0 22.0 28.0 : 16 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Chikaskia River
Corbin 10.0 19.0 28.0 : 34 39 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Fall River
Fredonia 17.0 27.0 36.0 : 35 26 8 9 <5 <5
:Verdigris River
Altoona 19.0 21.0 26.0 : 20 23 6 6 <5 <5
Independence 30.0 47.6 53.0 : 30 35 <5 <5 <5 <5
Coffeyville 18.0 23.0 26.5 : 14 27 <5 6 <5 <5
:Cottonwood River
Florence 22.0 27.0 32.0 : 28 18 6 <5 <5 <5
Cottonwood Falls 9.0 11.0 18.0 : 29 25 19 17 <5 <5
Plymouth 32.0 34.0 37.0 : 25 26 9 7 <5 <5
:Neosho River
Iola 15.0 21.0 27.0 : 29 30 <5 9 <5 <5
Chanute 23.0 28.5 35.0 : 31 40 14 20 <5 5
Erie 29.0 32.0 36.0 : 30 38 20 28 11 15
Parsons 21.0 23.0 32.0 : 44 50 29 40 <5 <5
Oswego 17.0 20.0 25.0 : 43 46 29 31 7 8
:Salt Creek
Barnard 21.0 23.3 24.9 : 8 23 <5 18 <5 <5
:Saline River
Lincoln 30.0 36.0 38.5 : 13 22 <5 9 <5 <5
:Smoky Hill River
Lindsborg 21.0 29.0 33.9 : 17 35 6 5 <5 <5
Mentor 20.0 24.0 28.0 : 12 30 8 12 <5 <5
:Mulberry Creek
Salina 24.0 26.0 27.4 : 17 33 11 29 5 6
:Smoky Hill River
New Cambria 27.0 30.0 33.1 : 21 34 17 25 6 9
Russell 18.0 20.0 38.0 : <5 9 <5 5 <5 <5
Ellsworth 20.0 24.0 27.0 : 6 9 <5 6 <5 <5
:Saline River
Russell 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 02/29/2024 - 05/27/2024
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Arkansas River
Great Bend 0.7 0.7 1.2 3.1 5.3 8.0 9.2
Hutchinson 1.0 1.1 1.6 2.5 3.7 5.1 8.8
Haven 1.9 2.4 3.3 4.6 5.9 9.7 12.3
Derby 1.4 1.6 3.3 4.4 7.0 13.1 13.6
Mulvane 6.0 6.4 8.1 9.3 12.4 17.8 18.4
Oxford 8.3 9.0 10.7 11.7 15.7 20.1 21.3
Arkansas City 3.9 4.8 6.9 8.0 11.6 15.7 18.6
:Walnut Creek
Albert 3.7 3.8 3.9 8.7 13.9 21.8 25.3
:Cow Creek
Lyons 3.9 3.9 3.9 9.4 13.3 16.9 18.2
Hutchinson 1.7 1.7 4.7 7.5 10.3 11.1 11.8
:Little Arkansas River
Alta Mills -0.1 0.0 3.9 9.5 15.3 25.3 26.2
Halstead 5.7 5.8 8.6 12.5 17.5 26.7 27.4
Sedgwick 3.1 4.5 6.3 10.3 13.2 23.0 25.2
:Cowskin Creek
Wichita At 119th 7.1 7.1 10.9 12.5 15.6 18.9 19.4
:Ninnescah South Fork
Murdock 3.6 3.6 4.6 5.2 7.1 8.7 9.9
:Ninnescah River
Peck 2.9 3.8 5.3 7.3 12.0 17.8 19.3
Belle Plaine 9.8 10.9 12.8 14.5 17.9 22.9 25.0
:Slate Creek
Wellington 4.3 4.3 8.2 19.8 22.3 22.8 23.7
:Whitewater River
Towanda 1.8 2.7 7.6 11.9 20.2 24.9 26.6
Augusta 3.7 5.1 7.3 9.4 13.7 20.6 26.4
:West Branch Walnut River
El Dorado 6.9 7.1 8.0 10.0 13.8 20.8 33.9
:Walnut River
El Dorado 2.4 2.9 3.6 6.6 10.7 12.8 15.1
Augusta 5.9 6.6 7.6 11.5 18.8 23.3 25.6
Winfield 1.6 2.5 6.1 10.8 19.2 25.7 30.7
Arkansas City 3.1 4.6 7.8 11.2 15.9 19.5 20.5
:Chikaskia River
Corbin 2.4 2.4 4.8 7.6 11.4 14.3 15.9
:Fall River
Fredonia 5.3 7.3 9.5 14.9 18.5 25.8 30.2
:Verdigris River
Altoona 7.2 7.5 10.0 14.8 18.6 19.9 21.5
Independence 9.2 10.8 16.2 22.9 32.2 37.9 40.1
Coffeyville 3.1 3.6 5.0 7.6 15.8 19.0 22.8
:Cottonwood River
Florence 3.1 4.0 6.0 11.8 23.7 26.5 27.2
Cottonwood Falls 1.2 2.0 3.2 5.6 9.8 13.2 14.1
Plymouth 4.9 5.6 11.9 24.5 32.1 34.0 34.3
:Neosho River
Iola 8.0 9.0 9.7 12.9 15.4 18.0 19.4
Chanute 9.5 12.1 15.8 20.5 23.9 30.3 34.8
Erie 15.0 15.6 20.8 25.2 30.1 36.8 41.5
Parsons 10.7 11.2 16.9 20.2 23.7 27.2 28.9
Oswego 8.8 9.3 11.4 15.7 20.9 24.2 26.1
:Salt Creek
Barnard 4.0 4.0 4.0 7.0 8.6 20.3 22.8
:Saline River
Lincoln 10.6 10.6 11.1 14.1 24.7 31.6 35.0
:Smoky Hill River
Lindsborg 6.4 6.4 7.0 8.0 14.2 23.5 29.5
Mentor 3.8 3.8 4.4 5.9 12.1 20.7 27.3
:Mulberry Creek
Salina 3.8 3.8 4.0 6.1 16.0 26.3 27.2
:Smoky Hill River
New Cambria 7.2 10.5 13.4 20.9 24.9 31.5 33.7
Russell 3.7 3.7 4.3 6.5 10.3 13.7 16.6
Ellsworth 1.3 1.4 3.5 5.8 9.5 16.4 21.6
:Saline River
Russell 4.2 4.2 4.4 6.5 8.7 15.6 17.9
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.
Based upon the above information, there is a near normal chance of
flooding across the HSA this spring. A substantial part of this
assessment is factoring in the soil moisture conditions and the
seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks. Any flooding that
does occur this Spring will be largely dependent on the intensity and
placement of precipitation and thunderstorms.
The next Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook will be issued on
March 14th.
$$
Salazar
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