Hydrologic Outlook
Issued by NWS Twin Cities/Chanhassen, MN
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549 FGUS73 KMPX 162135 ESFMSP Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 330 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 ...Spring Flood Probabilities For Much of Central and Southern Minnesota...and Western Wisconsin... In table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is greater than HS, the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 02/19/2017 - 05/20/2017 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : As a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (ft) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Redwood River Redwood Falls 6.0 15.0 16.0 : 35 22 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cottonwood River New Ulm 11.0 13.0 16.0 : 48 31 23 18 6 10 :Minnesota River Montevideo 14.0 16.0 17.5 : 62 41 23 24 10 13 Granite Falls 888.5 893.5 896.5 : 8 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 Mankato 22.0 25.0 30.0 : 8 11 <5 8 <5 <5 Henderson 732.0 736.0 739.5 : 16 19 <5 8 <5 <5 Jordan 25.0 28.0 34.0 : 33 26 13 16 <5 <5 Savage 702.0 710.0 712.0 : 72 56 15 13 7 9 :Long Prairie River Long Prairie 7.0 8.0 10.0 : 25 24 10 7 <5 <5 :Sauk River St Cloud 6.0 7.0 9.0 : 15 19 <5 10 <5 <5 :South Fork Crow River Mayer 11.0 15.0 16.0 : 25 25 <5 11 <5 9 Delano 16.5 17.5 18.5 : 14 15 5 13 <5 12 :Crow River Rockford 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 22 19 7 13 <5 9 :Mississippi River St Cloud 9.0 10.0 11.0 : 37 26 21 15 8 5 Minneapolis 16.0 16.5 17.0 : 9 9 7 8 6 8 St Paul 14.0 15.0 17.0 : 28 24 23 18 15 12 Hastings L/D#2 15.0 17.0 18.0 : 40 36 27 21 16 16 Red Wing L/D#3 680.5 681.5 683.0 : 21 18 19 16 7 9 Red Wing 14.0 15.0 16.0 : 21 18 17 14 14 9 :St Croix River Stillwater 87.0 88.0 89.0 : 20 19 17 14 11 11 :Eau Claire River Fall Creek 11.0 14.0 17.0 : 26 26 12 13 <5 <5 :Chippewa River Eau Claire 773.0 776.0 778.0 : 20 15 11 8 7 5 Durand 13.0 15.5 17.0 : 60 43 16 14 10 7 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 Below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 02/19/2017 - 05/20/2017 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Redwood River Redwood Falls 3.2 3.3 4.1 5.4 7.0 9.0 10.7 :Cottonwood River New Ulm 8.5 8.7 9.4 10.9 13.0 14.5 17.1 :Minnesota River Montevideo 10.5 10.8 13.0 14.8 16.0 17.5 19.4 Granite Falls 883.7 883.8 884.4 885.4 886.5 887.9 889.6 Mankato 11.1 11.9 13.1 15.7 18.9 21.5 23.6 Henderson 724.4 725.2 726.4 728.5 731.2 733.7 735.3 Jordan 16.4 17.6 19.9 23.4 25.9 28.4 29.9 Savage 698.0 699.7 701.6 704.7 708.3 711.3 712.8 :Long Prairie River Long Prairie 5.2 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 8.0 8.3 :Sauk River St Cloud 4.1 4.2 4.5 5.0 5.4 6.4 6.9 :South Fork Crow River Mayer 6.2 6.5 7.6 9.1 11.0 12.8 13.8 Delano 11.0 11.4 12.4 13.8 15.4 16.7 17.5 :Crow River Rockford 5.4 5.5 6.2 7.3 9.0 11.2 12.7 :Mississippi River St Cloud 7.5 7.7 8.0 8.5 9.6 10.6 12.2 Minneapolis 8.9 9.1 10.2 11.3 13.7 15.7 18.3 St Paul 6.7 7.8 9.0 10.6 14.8 18.2 19.5 Hastings L/D#2 9.6 10.9 12.3 13.9 17.2 19.4 20.4 Red Wing L/D#3 674.2 675.0 676.4 677.2 679.9 682.7 683.5 Red Wing 7.9 8.4 9.5 10.4 13.2 16.5 17.6 :St Croix River Stillwater 80.3 81.3 82.8 83.8 85.9 89.3 90.4 :Eau Claire River Fall Creek 7.7 7.8 8.2 8.9 11.7 14.7 15.2 :Chippewa River Eau Claire 765.7 766.1 767.7 769.5 772.6 776.5 779.4 Durand 9.9 10.7 11.8 13.7 14.9 17.1 17.8 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 02/19/2017 - 05/20/2017 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Redwood River Redwood Falls 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.2 :Cottonwood River New Ulm 5.1 5.0 4.3 3.8 3.3 3.0 2.9 :Minnesota River Montevideo 8.7 7.3 6.4 4.9 4.1 3.6 3.3 Granite Falls 883.1 882.7 882.2 881.6 881.2 880.9 880.7 Mankato 8.0 7.4 6.2 5.1 4.3 3.6 3.5 Henderson 721.2 720.4 718.7 717.1 715.7 714.7 714.6 Jordan 12.2 11.2 9.4 7.7 6.4 5.5 5.4 Savage 693.0 692.9 690.0 688.9 688.2 687.8 687.7 :Long Prairie River Long Prairie 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 :Sauk River St Cloud 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.3 2.2 2.0 :South Fork Crow River Mayer 4.8 4.2 3.8 3.3 2.9 2.4 2.2 Delano 9.4 8.8 8.3 7.7 7.1 6.6 6.2 :Crow River Rockford 4.5 4.3 3.9 3.5 3.2 2.9 2.8 :Mississippi River St Cloud 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.5 Minneapolis 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.5 5.2 4.8 St Paul 4.7 4.7 4.4 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.4 Hastings L/D#2 7.0 6.9 6.7 5.9 5.4 5.0 4.9 Red Wing L/D#3 671.4 671.4 671.4 670.6 669.7 668.7 668.3 Red Wing 5.3 5.3 5.3 4.7 4.1 3.1 2.9 :St Croix River Stillwater 76.3 76.3 76.3 76.0 75.7 75.5 75.4 :Eau Claire River Fall Creek 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.1 :Chippewa River Eau Claire 759.7 759.6 759.6 759.5 759.3 759.0 759.0 Durand 4.4 4.3 4.2 3.8 3.4 3.1 2.9 Spring flood factors will be based on past precipitation...soil moisture snowpack...snow water runoff...frost depth...and forecast snow and rainfall amounts in the next couple of months. Our mild winter so far has resulted in a low to nonexistent snow pack for central Minnesota...and only up to a half foot in western Wisconsin. Southern Minnesota remained snow free. Frost depth is near to below normal (shallower) which has little effect one way or another for Spring flooding. Soil moisture remained very high...due to above normal precipitation that went well into the last half of December. Months of saturated soils have led to most of Minnesota and Wisconsin seeing historically high streamflow for this time of year. Therefore...the main flood threat will be determined by the occurrences (or lack of) heavy snow events in March and/or heavy rain events in March and April. The next two weeks calls for above normal precipitation...near or above normal temperatures. The next 3 to 4 weeks calls for a cooler period with no strong signal for above or below normal precipitation. For additional information on stream flow conditions for USGS for Minnesota... WWW.WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/MN/NWIS/RT For Wisconsin... WWW.WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/WI/NWIS/RT For a historical context of the year round maintained river gauges by Minnesota USGS... MN.WATER.USGS.GOV/FLOOD/DURATION/INDEX.HTML For additional information on stream flow conditions at the Minnesota DNR... WWW.DNR.STATE.MN.US/WATERS/CSG/INDEX.HTML or CLIMATE.UMN.EDU/DOW/WEEKLY_STREAM_FLOW/STREAM_FLOW_WEEKLY.ASP For a quick reference map of the risk of Minor...Moderate or Major flooding... WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/NCRFC/?N=SPROUTLOOKCURRENT For a map of the current snow depths... WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/MPX/RTPDISPLAY.PHP?MAP=SNOWDEPTH All of this information is also available in graphical format HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TWINCITIES The next outlook will be issued March 4th. $$

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National Weather Service
Twin Cities/Chanhassen Weather Forecast Office
1733 Lake Drive West
Chanhassen, MN 55317-8581
(952) 361-6708
Page last modified: 16-Feb-2017 9:35 PM
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