Hydrologic Outlook
Issued by NWS Twin Cities/Chanhassen, MN
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000 FGUS73 KMPX 051734 ESFMSP MNC003-009-013-015-019-023-037-049-053-073-079-103-123-127-129-139- 141-143-145-153-163-171-173-WIC011-035-091-093-109-142359- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1135 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015 ...FLOOD PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL MN AND EASTERN WI... IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. ALL CURRENT PROBABILITIES ARE AT OR BELOW THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE FOR EACH LOCATION. ...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 3/9/2015 - 6/7/2015 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL : CHANCES OF EXCEEDING : FLOOD CATERGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE (%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :REDWOOD RIVER REDWOOD FALLS 6.0 15.0 16.0 : <5 24 <5 <5 <5 <5 :COTTONWOOD RIVER NEW ULM 11.0 13.0 16.0 : 10 33 <5 18 <5 9 :MINNESOTA RIVER MONTEVIDEO 14.0 16.0 17.5 : 21 40 <5 23 <5 10 GRANITE FALLS 888.5 893.5 896.5 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 MANKATO 22.0 25.0 30.0 : <5 15 <5 7 <5 <5 HENDERSON 732.0 736.0 739.5 : <5 18 <5 7 <5 <5 JORDAN 25.0 28.0 34.0 : 6 26 <5 16 <5 <5 SAVAGE 702.0 710.0 712.0 : 16 60 <5 12 <5 7 :LONG PRAIRIE RIVER LONG PRAIRIE 7.0 8.0 10.0 : <5 20 <5 6 <5 <5 :SAUK RIVER ST CLOUD 6.0 7.0 9.0 : <5 16 <5 9 <5 <5 :SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER MAYER 11.0 15.0 16.0 : 6 27 <5 9 <5 7 DELANO 16.5 17.5 18.5 : <5 16 <5 12 <5 10 :CROW RIVER ROCKFORD 10.0 12.0 14.0 : <5 18 <5 10 <5 6 :MISSISSIPPI RIVER ST CLOUD 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 29 <5 13 <5 <5 MINNEAPOLIS 16.0 16.5 17.0 : <5 7 <5 7 <5 6 ST PAUL 14.0 15.0 17.0 : <5 21 <5 16 <5 10 HASTINGS L/D#2 15.0 17.0 18.0 : 6 38 <5 16 <5 13 RED WING L/D#3 680.5 681.5 683.0 : <5 24 <5 15 <5 7 RED WING 14.0 15.0 16.0 : <5 16 <5 12 <5 7 :ST CROIX RIVER STILLWATER 87.0 88.0 89.0 : <5 20 <5 15 <5 9 :EAU CLAIRE RIVER FALL CREEK 11.0 14.0 17.0 : 13 27 9 16 <5 <5 :CHIPPEWA RIVER EAU CLAIRE 773.0 776.0 778.0 : 10 21 <5 7 <5 <5 DURAND 13.0 15.5 17.0 : 29 47 6 12 <5 6 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. ...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID PERIOD: 3/9/2015 - 6/7/2015 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :REDWOOD RIVER REDWOOD FALLS 1.9 2.1 2.5 3.1 3.6 5.3 6.0 :COTTONWOOD RIVER NEW ULM 4.8 5.1 6.2 7.2 9.1 11.6 14.6 :MINNESOTA RIVER MONTEVIDEO 7.1 7.9 9.7 11.4 13.4 14.9 16.5 GRANITE FALLS 882.5 882.9 883.5 884.0 884.6 885.6 887.0 MANKATO 7.3 7.9 9.3 11.2 14.4 17.7 19.5 HENDERSON 718.8 719.7 721.4 723.8 726.6 729.1 730.8 JORDAN 10.0 11.0 13.2 16.4 20.5 24.0 25.6 SAVAGE 688.5 688.9 691.6 696.0 700.3 704.7 706.6 :LONG PRAIRIE RIVER LONG PRAIRIE 2.8 3.0 3.6 4.5 5.6 6.3 6.7 :SAUK RIVER ST CLOUD 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.4 3.9 5.1 5.6 :SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER MAYER 3.0 3.1 3.6 4.8 7.4 9.7 12.0 DELANO 7.0 7.1 7.7 9.6 11.9 14.5 16.0 :CROW RIVER ROCKFORD 2.8 2.9 3.2 4.4 5.5 7.4 9.7 :MISSISSIPPI RIVER ST CLOUD 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.8 6.7 8.0 8.4 MINNEAPOLIS 5.0 5.2 5.7 6.9 8.1 11.1 13.4 ST PAUL 3.0 3.2 4.2 5.8 7.4 10.4 12.5 HASTINGS L/D#2 5.2 5.4 6.4 8.4 10.5 13.8 15.6 RED WING L/D#3 670.4 670.6 672.2 673.8 675.1 678.2 679.5 RED WING 4.5 4.6 6.5 7.7 8.6 11.4 12.8 :ST CROIX RIVER STILLWATER 76.3 76.4 78.0 80.1 82.1 85.2 87.5 :EAU CLAIRE RIVER FALL CREEK 5.9 6.1 6.9 7.9 9.4 13.7 16.1 :CHIPPEWA RIVER EAU CLAIRE 764.3 765.2 766.6 768.5 770.6 773.3 774.1 DURAND 8.6 9.1 10.1 11.6 13.3 15.3 15.8 IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. ...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE...OR LOW-FLOW...PROBABILITIES... CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID PERIOD: 3/9/2015 - 6/7/2015 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :REDWOOD RIVER REDWOOD FALLS 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 :COTTONWOOD RIVER NEW ULM 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.0 :MINNESOTA RIVER MONTEVIDEO 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 2.7 2.5 2.4 GRANITE FALLS 880.9 880.8 880.8 880.8 880.3 880.2 880.0 MANKATO 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.3 HENDERSON 712.9 712.9 712.9 712.9 712.7 712.1 711.6 JORDAN 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.3 4.0 SAVAGE 687.4 687.4 687.4 687.4 687.4 687.4 687.4 :LONG PRAIRIE RIVER LONG PRAIRIE 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.2 :SAUK RIVER ST CLOUD 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.6 :SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER MAYER 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.6 DELANO 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.1 4.9 4.8 :CROW RIVER ROCKFORD 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.5 :MISSISSIPPI RIVER ST CLOUD 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 MINNEAPOLIS 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.7 3.3 ST PAUL 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 HASTINGS L/D#2 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 RED WING L/D#3 667.0 667.0 667.0 667.0 667.0 667.0 667.0 RED WING 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 :ST CROIX RIVER STILLWATER 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 74.8 :EAU CLAIRE RIVER FALL CREEK 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 :CHIPPEWA RIVER EAU CLAIRE 758.7 758.7 758.7 758.7 758.7 758.7 758.7 DURAND 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 WINTER PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A BELOW NORMAL CHANCE OF FLOODING. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW FLOW ISSUES THIS SUMMER IF BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL PATTERNS CONTINUE THROUGH THE SPRING AND SUMMER. MOST OF THE AREA IS CONSIDERED ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/...WITH A SMALL REGION OF INITIAL DROUGHT /D1/ IN WESTERN MINNESOTA. THE OUTLOOK CALLS FOR THIS PATTERN TO PERSIST INTO THE SPRING. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT MONITOR PLEASE REFERENCE WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML FOR INFORMATION ON STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS FOR USGS LOCATIONS PLEASE REFERENCE FOR MINNESOTA WWW.WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/MN/NWIS/RT FOR WISCONSIN WWW.WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/WI/NWIS/RT FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON STREAM FLOW CONIDITIONS AT MN DNR LOCATIONS PLEASE REFERENCE WWW.DNR.STATE.MN.US/WATERS/CSG/INDEX.HTML OR CLIMATE.UMN.EDU/DOW/WEEKLY_STREAM_FLOW/STREAM_FLOW_WEEKLY.ASP FOR A QUICK REFERENCE MAP OF THE RISK OF MINOR...MODERATE MAJOR FLOODING PLEASE REFERENCE WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/NCRFC/?N=SPROUTLOOKCURRENT ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TWINCITIES (LOWER CASE) THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED IN LATE MARCH $$

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National Weather Service
Twin Cities/Chanhassen Weather Forecast Office
1733 Lake Drive West
Chanhassen, MN 55317-8581
(952) 361-6708
Page last modified: 5-Mar-2015 5:34 PM
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