Hydrologic Outlook
Issued by NWS Twin Cities/Chanhassen, MN
 Print this page Close this Window

NOTE: This product is more than 24 hours old.
000 FGUS73 KMPX 292011 ESFMSP MNC003-009-013-015-019-023-037-049-053-073-079-103-123-127-129-139- 141-143-145-153-163-171-173-WIC011-035-091-093-109-312359- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 211 PM CST FRI JAN 29 2016 ...SPRING FLOOD PROBABILITIES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...ABOVE NORMAL IN WESTERN WISCONSIN... IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. ...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 01/31/2016 - 04/30/2016 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL : CHANCES OF EXCEEDING : FLOOD CATERGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE (%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :REDWOOD RIVER REDWOOD FALLS 6.0 15.0 16.0 : 18 22 <5 <5 <5 <5 :COTTONWOOD RIVER NEW ULM 11.0 13.0 16.0 : 55 31 16 17 5 9 :MINNESOTA RIVER MONTEVIDEO 14.0 16.0 17.5 : 32 36 14 24 6 13 GRANITE FALLS 888.5 893.5 896.5 : 6 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 MANKATO 22.0 25.0 30.0 : <5 11 <5 8 <5 <5 HENDERSON 732.0 736.0 739.5 : 11 19 <5 8 <5 <5 JORDAN 25.0 28.0 34.0 : 33 24 6 13 <5 <5 SAVAGE 702.0 710.0 712.0 : 65 50 9 12 <5 9 :LONG PRAIRIE RIVER LONG PRAIRIE 7.0 8.0 10.0 : 17 21 <5 6 <5 <5 :SAUK RIVER ST CLOUD 6.0 7.0 9.0 : 14 18 <5 10 <5 <5 :SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER MAYER 11.0 15.0 16.0 : 16 22 <5 11 <5 9 DELANO 16.5 17.5 18.5 : 9 14 6 13 <5 11 :CROW RIVER ROCKFORD 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 12 17 7 12 <5 8 :MISSISSIPPI RIVER ST CLOUD 9.0 10.0 11.0 : 6 20 <5 12 <5 <5 MINNEAPOLIS 16.0 16.5 17.0 : <5 7 <5 7 <5 6 ST PAUL 14.0 15.0 17.0 : 11 17 10 13 6 11 HASTINGS L/D#2 15.0 17.0 18.0 : 28 31 10 14 8 12 RED WING L/D#3 680.5 681.5 683.0 : 15 15 10 10 <5 9 RED WING 14.0 15.0 16.0 : 14 14 9 9 6 9 :ST CROIX RIVER STILLWATER 87.0 88.0 89.0 : 14 14 8 11 6 9 :EAU CLAIRE RIVER FALL CREEK 11.0 14.0 17.0 : 24 22 12 10 <5 <5 :CHIPPEWA RIVER EAU CLAIRE 773.0 776.0 778.0 : 22 23 8 7 <5 <5 DURAND 13.0 15.5 17.0 : 47 40 18 12 6 5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. ...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID PERIOD: 01/31/2016 - 04/30/2016 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :REDWOOD RIVER REDWOOD FALLS 2.8 3.0 3.5 4.4 5.4 7.5 10.6 :COTTONWOOD RIVER NEW ULM 7.7 8.1 9.4 11.1 12.6 13.5 16.0 :MINNESOTA RIVER MONTEVIDEO 7.2 8.9 10.9 12.5 14.8 16.5 19.5 GRANITE FALLS 882.4 882.9 883.7 884.2 885.4 887.0 889.7 MANKATO 10.0 11.4 13.5 15.7 18.0 19.8 21.8 HENDERSON 723.6 725.2 726.9 728.9 730.5 732.0 734.1 JORDAN 16.0 18.5 21.3 23.9 25.4 26.9 29.0 SAVAGE 695.6 698.3 701.0 703.8 706.6 709.3 711.5 :LONG PRAIRIE RIVER LONG PRAIRIE 4.2 4.5 5.5 6.0 6.7 7.5 7.8 :SAUK RIVER ST CLOUD 3.0 3.5 4.2 4.7 5.7 6.1 6.8 :SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER MAYER 4.9 5.5 6.9 8.1 10.2 11.8 14.0 DELANO 9.6 10.2 11.6 12.8 15.1 16.1 17.8 :CROW RIVER ROCKFORD 4.0 4.6 5.4 6.6 8.8 10.4 12.4 :MISSISSIPPI RIVER ST CLOUD 5.9 6.2 6.7 7.5 8.3 8.9 9.8 MINNEAPOLIS 6.8 7.6 8.5 9.7 11.3 13.3 14.1 ST PAUL 5.1 6.6 7.9 10.0 12.6 15.0 17.6 HASTINGS L/D#2 7.6 9.2 10.8 13.1 15.4 17.0 19.0 RED WING L/D#3 673.5 674.3 676.1 676.9 678.5 681.6 682.6 RED WING 7.4 8.0 9.2 10.3 11.8 14.9 16.5 :ST CROIX RIVER STILLWATER 79.4 80.1 82.5 83.8 85.0 87.6 89.9 :EAU CLAIRE RIVER FALL CREEK 6.1 6.8 7.9 8.5 10.6 14.6 15.1 :CHIPPEWA RIVER EAU CLAIRE 765.1 765.5 767.3 770.0 772.7 775.0 776.5 DURAND 8.9 9.4 10.9 12.9 14.6 16.4 17.1 IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. ...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID PERIOD: 01/31/2016 - 04/30/2016 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :REDWOOD RIVER REDWOOD FALLS 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 :COTTONWOOD RIVER NEW ULM 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 :MINNESOTA RIVER MONTEVIDEO 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.8 GRANITE FALLS 880.6 880.6 880.6 880.6 880.5 880.4 880.4 MANKATO 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0 HENDERSON 714.0 714.0 713.8 713.4 713.2 712.9 712.9 JORDAN 5.5 5.5 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.5 SAVAGE 687.5 687.5 687.4 687.4 687.4 687.4 687.4 :LONG PRAIRIE RIVER LONG PRAIRIE 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 :SAUK RIVER ST CLOUD 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 :SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER MAYER 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.9 DELANO 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.8 5.8 :CROW RIVER ROCKFORD 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 :MISSISSIPPI RIVER ST CLOUD 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.0 MINNEAPOLIS 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.3 ST PAUL 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 HASTINGS L/D#2 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 RED WING L/D#3 667.4 667.3 667.2 667.0 667.0 667.0 667.0 RED WING 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8 :ST CROIX RIVER STILLWATER 75.3 75.3 75.3 75.2 75.2 75.2 75.2 :EAU CLAIRE RIVER FALL CREEK 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 :CHIPPEWA RIVER EAU CLAIRE 759.1 759.0 759.0 758.9 758.9 758.9 758.9 DURAND 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 WHILE SNOWFALL THIS WINTER HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE AREA...EARLY WINTER RAINFALL CAUSED SOIL MOISTURE TO REACH VERY HIGH LEVELS BEFORE THE WINTER FROST SET IN. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE GREATEST DRIVER FOR POTENTIAL SPRING FLOODING IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN WOULD BE HEAVY SPRING RAINFALL OVER THE FROZEN AND/OR SATURATED SOILS. THE PROBABILITIES IN THE TABLES ABOVE ARE CALCULATED USING HISTORICAL/NORMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SHOULD RAINFALL BE HEAVIER OR EARLIER THAN NORMAL...THE PROBABILITY OF SPRING FLOODING WILL INCREASE. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS AS WE HEAD INTO SPRING FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. FIND US ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TWINCITIES (LOWER CASE) OR AT HTTP://INNOVATION.SRH.NOAA.GOV/NWSWIDGET ON YOUR MOBILE DEVICE. THE NEXT SCHEDULED OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED IN LATE FEBRUARY. $$

Close this window


The National Weather Service prepares its forecasts and other services in collaboration with agencies like the US Geological Survey, US Bureau of Reclamation, US Army Corps of Engineers, Natural Resource Conservation Service, National Park Service, ALERT Users Group, Bureau of Indian Affairs, and many state and local emergency managers across the country. For details, please click here.

National Weather Service
Twin Cities/Chanhassen Weather Forecast Office
1733 Lake Drive West
Chanhassen, MN 55317-8581
(952) 361-6708
Page last modified: 29-Jan-2016 8:11 PM
Disclaimer
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities