Hydrologic Outlook
Issued by NWS Twin Cities/Chanhassen, MN
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000 FGUS73 KMPX 222053 ESFMSP MNC003-009-013-015-019-023-037-049-053-073-079-103-123-127-129-139- 141-143-145-153-163-171-173-WIC011-035-091-093-109-312359- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 344 PM CDT WED MAR 22 2017 ...Spring Flood Probabilities For Much of Central and Southern Minnesota...and Western Wisconsin... IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. ...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 03/26/2017 - 06/24/2017 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL : CHANCES OF EXCEEDING : FLOOD CATERGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE (%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :REDWOOD RIVER REDWOOD FALLS 6.0 15.0 16.0 : 39 25 <5 <5 <5 <5 :COTTONWOOD RIVER NEW ULM 11.0 13.0 16.0 : 53 32 27 18 5 10 :MINNESOTA RIVER MONTEVIDEO 14.0 16.0 17.5 : 45 47 23 30 9 18 GRANITE FALLS 888.5 893.5 896.5 : 7 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 MANKATO 22.0 25.0 30.0 : 10 14 5 10 <5 <5 HENDERSON 732.0 736.0 739.5 : 25 22 5 10 <5 <5 JORDAN 25.0 28.0 34.0 : 38 33 15 17 <5 <5 SAVAGE 702.0 710.0 712.0 : 70 61 10 15 <5 9 :LONG PRAIRIE RIVER LONG PRAIRIE 7.0 8.0 10.0 : 12 26 <5 7 <5 <5 :SAUK RIVER ST CLOUD 6.0 7.0 9.0 : 10 21 <5 10 <5 <5 :SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER MAYER 11.0 15.0 16.0 : 28 33 <5 12 <5 10 DELANO 16.5 17.5 18.5 : 16 17 6 14 <5 12 :CROW RIVER ROCKFORD 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 16 21 5 13 <5 8 :MISSISSIPPI RIVER ST CLOUD 9.0 10.0 11.0 : 15 30 8 15 <5 6 MINNEAPOLIS 16.0 16.5 17.0 : <5 10 <5 9 <5 8 ST PAUL 14.0 15.0 17.0 : 18 25 15 20 6 12 HASTINGS L/D#2 15.0 17.0 18.0 : 34 38 17 20 11 16 RED WING L/D#3 680.5 681.5 683.0 : 11 19 <5 17 <5 9 RED WING 14.0 15.0 16.0 : 10 18 <5 14 <5 9 :ST CROIX RIVER STILLWATER 87.0 88.0 89.0 : 9 21 <5 14 <5 11 :EAU CLAIRE RIVER FALL CREEK 11.0 14.0 17.0 : 21 30 11 18 8 7 :CHIPPEWA RIVER EAU CLAIRE 773.0 776.0 778.0 : 10 15 <5 8 <5 5 DURAND 13.0 15.5 17.0 : 24 43 9 14 <5 7 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. ...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID PERIOD: 03/26/2017 - 06/24/2017 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :REDWOOD RIVER REDWOOD FALLS 3.6 3.6 4.0 5.7 7.0 8.5 12.6 :COTTONWOOD RIVER NEW ULM 8.7 8.8 9.3 11.1 13.2 14.8 16.4 :MINNESOTA RIVER MONTEVIDEO 10.4 10.7 11.5 13.6 15.8 17.3 18.7 GRANITE FALLS 883.4 883.5 883.8 884.4 886.0 887.5 889.0 MANKATO 11.7 12.1 13.7 16.1 19.9 22.0 25.8 HENDERSON 725.0 725.4 726.9 728.8 732.0 733.7 736.2 JORDAN 18.2 18.6 21.2 23.5 26.7 28.2 29.8 SAVAGE 698.5 698.6 701.0 704.0 708.0 710.2 710.8 :LONG PRAIRIE RIVER LONG PRAIRIE 4.2 4.3 5.1 5.7 6.5 7.1 7.5 :SAUK RIVER ST CLOUD 3.5 3.5 3.6 4.2 5.1 6.0 6.4 :SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER MAYER 6.4 6.5 7.4 8.7 11.7 13.1 14.1 DELANO 11.1 11.2 12.2 13.5 15.9 17.0 17.6 :CROW RIVER ROCKFORD 5.0 5.1 5.6 7.0 9.1 10.7 12.0 :MISSISSIPPI RIVER ST CLOUD 6.7 6.7 7.0 7.9 8.3 9.7 10.5 MINNEAPOLIS 8.0 8.1 8.7 10.0 11.5 13.8 15.1 ST PAUL 6.8 7.0 8.2 10.1 13.3 16.4 17.1 HASTINGS L/D#2 9.7 9.9 11.3 13.3 16.1 18.1 18.6 RED WING L/D#3 674.1 674.3 675.5 676.5 678.7 680.8 681.5 RED WING 7.8 8.0 8.7 9.8 12.1 13.9 14.7 :ST CROIX RIVER STILLWATER 79.8 80.3 81.8 83.2 84.6 86.8 87.8 :EAU CLAIRE RIVER FALL CREEK 5.0 5.3 6.5 7.8 9.5 14.9 19.0 :CHIPPEWA RIVER EAU CLAIRE 762.6 763.6 765.0 766.4 768.2 773.0 775.7 DURAND 7.2 7.9 9.2 10.9 12.6 15.4 16.3 IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. ...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID PERIOD: 03/26/2017 - 06/24/2017 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :REDWOOD RIVER REDWOOD FALLS 2.4 2.4 2.2 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 :COTTONWOOD RIVER NEW ULM 4.2 3.8 3.3 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.2 :MINNESOTA RIVER MONTEVIDEO 8.6 6.8 5.8 4.4 3.7 3.3 3.1 GRANITE FALLS 882.7 882.3 882.0 881.4 881.0 880.8 880.7 MANKATO 7.9 7.2 5.6 4.6 3.8 3.2 2.9 HENDERSON 720.9 720.1 718.1 716.3 715.0 714.0 713.7 JORDAN 12.5 11.7 9.6 7.9 6.6 5.7 5.4 SAVAGE 694.5 692.9 689.2 688.4 687.7 687.4 687.4 :LONG PRAIRIE RIVER LONG PRAIRIE 3.6 3.3 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.5 :SAUK RIVER ST CLOUD 3.3 3.1 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.5 :SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER MAYER 4.0 3.7 3.3 2.8 2.3 1.6 1.3 DELANO 8.6 8.2 7.7 7.0 6.4 5.7 5.5 :CROW RIVER ROCKFORD 4.0 3.9 3.5 3.1 2.8 2.4 2.3 :MISSISSIPPI RIVER ST CLOUD 6.1 5.8 5.4 5.1 4.7 4.5 4.4 MINNEAPOLIS 7.1 6.7 5.9 5.4 5.0 4.6 4.5 ST PAUL 5.7 5.1 4.0 3.7 3.4 3.3 3.2 HASTINGS L/D#2 8.4 7.5 6.2 5.5 4.8 4.5 4.5 RED WING L/D#3 673.1 672.4 671.1 669.7 668.2 667.1 667.0 RED WING 7.2 6.5 5.0 4.1 2.9 2.2 2.1 :ST CROIX RIVER STILLWATER 78.4 77.6 76.1 75.7 75.4 75.3 75.2 :EAU CLAIRE RIVER FALL CREEK 1.9 1.8 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 :CHIPPEWA RIVER EAU CLAIRE 760.0 759.7 759.4 759.1 758.9 758.8 758.7 DURAND 4.3 4.0 3.3 2.9 2.5 2.3 2.2 Spring flood factors will be based on past precipitation...soil moisture...snowpack...snow water runoff...frost depth...and forecast snow and rainfall amounts in the next couple of months. Our mild winter and dry February has resulted in a nearly nonexistent snow pack for most of the area covered by this outlook. Frost depth is below normal (shallower) or gone for most of the area as well. Soil moisture remains very high...due to much above normal precipitation last fall and early winter. Months of saturated soils have led to most of Minnesota and Wisconsin seeing historically high streamflow for this time of year. Therefore...the main flood threat will be determined by the occurrences of heavy rain events in late March and April. The next two weeks calls for above normal precipitation and above normal temperatures. The seasonal spring outlooks continue this trend...so we will be watching for heavy rainfall events to potentially trigger flooding. Because of the lack of snow pack...the chances of "high end" flooding have decreased since the earlier outlooks February and early March. THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE. ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT ON THE INTERNET AT weather.gov/twincities or water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=mpx THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED IN LATE APRIL $$

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National Weather Service
Twin Cities/Chanhassen Weather Forecast Office
1733 Lake Drive West
Chanhassen, MN 55317-8581
(952) 361-6708
Page last modified: 22-Mar-2017 8:53 PM
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