Hydrologic Outlook
Issued by NWS Upton, NY
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289 FGUS71 KOKX 181949 ESFOKX CTC001-007-009-011-NJC003-013-017-031-039-NYC005-047-059-061-071-079- 081-085-087-103-119-011800- WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 250 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 ...Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook... This is the second winter/spring flood potential outlook in a series of routine winter/spring flood potential statements intended to provide insight into the likelihood of river flooding (not flash flooding) over the Lower Hudson River Valley, Northeast New Jersey, Southern Connecticut, New York City and Long Island over the next two weeks. This outlook is based on current assessment of Hydro- Meteorological factors which contribute to river flooding. These factors include recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover and snow water equivalent, river ice, stream flow and future weather conditions. This outlook does not address the severity of any future river flooding. The latest climate prediction center 6 to 10 day outlook valid from January 23rd through January 27th suggests above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation across the Hydrologic Service Area. The 8 to 14 day outlook valid from January 25th January 31st suggests a continuation of above normal temperatures and precipitation across the Hydrologic Service Area. Heavy rainfall is the primary factor which leads to river flooding. It is important to note that heavy rainfall can rapidly cause river flooding any time of the year, even when overall river flooding potential is considered low or below normal. Current flooding - None. Precipitation - Precipitation departures across the Hydrologic Service Area during the last 30 days ending on January 17th were normal to 2 inches below normal. Snow depth and Water equivalent - There is currently 1 to 4 inches of snow on the ground across Northern Lower Hudson River Valley with 0.50 inches of water equivalent. Across northeast New Jersey, Southern Lower Hudson River Valley and Southern Connecticut corridor there is currently a trace to 2 inches of snow on the ground with less than 0.25 inch of water equivalent. Across New York City and Long Island there is up to a trace of snow on the ground with less than a tenth of an inch of water equivalent. River flows - Across the local Hydrologic Service Area, rivers and streams are running below normal. Real-Time Water data can be found by visiting the USGS at www.usgs.gov/water. Soil moisture - Normal to Below normal. Soil moisture and drought related data and charts can be seen at: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov and www.drought.gov. Reservoir conditions - Reservoir levels across the New York City water supply system are 6 percent below normal. Reservoir levels across the combined 13 Northeast New Jersey reservoirs are 16 percent below normal. Summary - Long term models show a system that may impact the area during the first week of the outlook period producing moderate to heavy rainfall. The combination of snowmelt and heavy rainfall will result in possible flooding across the Hydrologic Service. River movement is also likely during this period. Otherwise, expect above normal precipitation and temperatures across the Hydrologic Service Area during this two week outlook period. For complete weather information, visit our web site at: water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=okx You can follow us on Facebook at: www.facebook.com/NWSNewYorkNY You can follow us on Twitter at: @NWSNewYorkNY The next Winter/Spring Flood Outlook will be issued by this office in two weeks, on February 1st, 2018. $$

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National Weather Service
Upton Weather Forecast Office
175 Brookhaven Ave. Bldg. NWS-1
Upton, NY 11973
Page last modified: 18-Jan-2018 7:49 PM
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