Hydrologic Outlook
Issued by NWS Upton, NY
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000 FGUS71 KOKX 191631 ESFOKX CTC001-007-009-011-NJC003-013-017-031-039-NYC005-047-059-061-071- 079-081-085-087-103-119-051645- WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1131 AM EST THU FEB 19 2015 ...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...NUMBER 4... THIS IS THE FOURTH WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IN A SERIES OF ROUTINE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH FLOODING) OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND. THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO- METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAM-FLOW...FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THE SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING. THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM FEBRUARY 24TH THROUGH THE 28TH SUGGESTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM FEBRUARY 26TH THROUGH MARCH 4TH SUGGESTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT FLOODING - NONE. PRECIPITATION - IN THE LAST 30 DAYS...PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NYC ...LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL. RIVER FLOWS - ACROSS THE LOCAL HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...FLOWS ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL. REAL-TIME WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING THE USGS AT WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER. ICE CONDITIONS - STREAMS ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA ARE STILL BEING AFFECTED BY ICE. REAL- TIME WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING THE USGS AT WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER. THE US COAST GUARD REPORTS ICE CONDITION ON THE HUDSON RIVER... SANDY HOOK BAY NO ICE LOWER NEW YORK BAY NO ICE UPPER NEW YORK BAY NO ICE NEWARK BAY NO ICE THROGS NECK BRIDGE NO ICE GEORGE WASHINGTON BRIDGE 80% COVERAGE 4-6" THICKNESS TAPPAN ZEE TO WEST POINT 10% COVERAGE 6-8" THICKNESS WEST POINT TO NEWBURGH 100% COVERAGE 6-14" THICKNESS NEWBURGH TO POUGHKEEPSIE 100% COVERAGE 6-8" THICKNESS SNOW - SNOW DEPTH WAS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. SINCE FEBRUARY 19TH ACROSS NEW YORK CITY SNOW DEPTH RANGED BETWEEN 2 TO 9 INCHES...ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY SNOW RANGED BETWEEN 5 TO 11 INCHES...ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SNOW DEPTH RANGED BETWEEN 10 TO 17 INCHES...ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT SNOW DEPTH RANGED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 INCHES. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT - ACROSS THE AREA THERE IS BETWEEN 1 1/2 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK. BASIN-AVERAGE WATER EQUIVALENT ESTIMATES CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV. SOIL MOISTURE - NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE. SOIL MOISTURE AND DROUGHT RELATED DATA AND CHARTS CAN BE SEEN AT: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND WWW.DROUGHT.GOV. RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM WERE 11 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE COMBINED 13 NORTHEAST NJ RESERVOIRS WERE AROUND 3 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - DURING THE TWO WEEKS OF THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH A FEW STORMS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...WITH SNOW/MIXED PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE DURING THIS TWO WEEK OUTLOOK PERIOD WITH NORMAL TO ABOVE PRECIPITATION. FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/WATER/TEXTPRODS/VIEW.PHP?WFO=OKX&PROD=ESF. THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE..ON THURSDAY MARCH 5TH, 2015. $$

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National Weather Service
Upton Weather Forecast Office
175 Brookhaven Ave. Bldg. NWS-1
Upton, NY 11973
Page last modified: 19-Feb-2015 4:31 PM
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