Hydrologic Outlook
Issued by NWS Upton, NY
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000 FGUS71 KOKX 191548 ESFOKX CTC001-007-009-011-NJC003-013-017-031-039-NYC005-047-059-061-071- 079-081-085-087-103-119-021600- WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1045 AM EST THU JAN 19 2017 ...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK... THIS IS THE FIRST WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IN A SERIES OF ROUTINE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH FLOODING)OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEWJERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND. THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO- METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAM-FLOW...FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THE SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING. THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM JANUARY 24TH THROUGH THE 28TH SUGGESTS ABOVE TEMPERATURES AND ABOVENORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. THE 8 TO 14DAY OUTLOOK FROM JANUARY 26TH THROUGH FEBRUARY 1ST SUGGESTS NORMALTO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THEHYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT FLOODING - NONE. PRECIPITATION - FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS...PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES HAVE BEEN NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON RIVERVALLEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND ANDBELOW NORMAL ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY. RIVER FLOWS - ACROSS THE LOCAL HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...FLOWS ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL. REAL- TIMEWATER DATA CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING THE USGS AT WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER. SOIL MOISTURE - NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL. RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT HAVE PUT A DENT IN THE LONG TERM DROUGHT ACROSS THE LOCALAREA. SOIL MOISTURE AND DROUGHT RELATED DATA AND CHARTS CAN BE SEENAT: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND WWW.DROUGHT.GOV. RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM ARE AROUND 15 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. RESERVOIRLEVELS ACROSS THE COMBINED 13 NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY RESERVOIRS AREAROUND 10 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - DURING THE TWO WEEKS OF THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD EXPECT AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO BE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/WATER/TEXTPRODS/VIEW.PHP?WFO=OKX&PROD=ESF. THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY FEBRUARY 2ND, 2017. $$

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National Weather Service
Upton Weather Forecast Office
175 Brookhaven Ave. Bldg. NWS-1
Upton, NY 11973
Page last modified: 19-Jan-2017 3:48 PM
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