Hydrologic Outlook
Issued by NWS Upton, NY
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000 FGUS71 KOKX 041711 ESFOKX FGUS71 KOKX 041708 ESFOKX CTC001-007-009-011-NJC003-013-017-031-039-NYC005-047-059-061-071- 079-081-085-087-103-119-181800- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1208 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 ...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...NUMBER 3... THIS IS THE THIRD WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IN A SERIES OF ROUTINE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH FLOODING)OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND. THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO- METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAM-FLOW...FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THE SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING. THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM FEBRUARY 9TH THROUGH THE 13TH SUGGESTS NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM FEBRUARY 11TH THROUGH THE 17TH SUGGESTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND COASTAL CONNECTICUT TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WITH NORMAL PRECIPITATION. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT FLOODING - NONE. PRECIPITATION - IN THE LAST 30 DAYS...PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. RIVER FLOWS - ACROSS THE LOCAL HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...FLOWS ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. REAL- TIME WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING THE USGS AT WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER. SOIL MOISTURE - ABOVE NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE AND DROUGHT RELATED DATA AND CHARTS CAN BE SEEN AT: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND WWW.DROUGHT.GOV. RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM ARE NORMAL. RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE COMBINED 13 NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY RESERVOIRS ARE NEAR 2 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. RIVER ICE - BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS CURRENTLY NO RIVER ICE ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - DURING THE TWO WEEKS OF THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD EXPECT AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL WITH AVERAGE PRECIPITATION NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/WATER/TEXTPRODS/VIEW.PHP?WFO=OKX&PROD=ESF. THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE...ON THURSDAY FEBRUARY 18TH, 2016. $$

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National Weather Service
Upton Weather Forecast Office
175 Brookhaven Ave. Bldg. NWS-1
Upton, NY 11973
Page last modified: 4-Feb-2016 5:11 PM
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