Hydrologic Outlook
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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000 FGUS73 KPAH 051745 ESFPAH ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181- 185-191-193-199-INC051-125-129-147-163-173-KYC007-033-035-039-047- 055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-149-157-177-219-221-225- 233-MOC017-023-031-035-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-191200- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1045 AM CST THU MAR 05 2015 ...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2... This outlook is for the NWS Paducah service area. It covers the time period for March through May. It includes the mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio Rivers and their tributaries for southwest Indiana, southern Illinois, west Kentucky and southeast Missouri. ...Flood Outlook Highlights... Flood potential is average or normal for this time of year. Minor flooding is expected due to rain and snow melt. Flooding in this region occurs mainly due to conditions of ground moisture, river flows, and expected precipitation. Ice jams are rarely a factor in flooding in this part of the country. ...Current Conditions... Snow...Frost and Soil Conditions...On March 4, heavy rain, with totals of 2-3 inches, melted most of the President`s Day snow. Heavy snows fell on the backside of this storm system. Four to 8 inches of snow fell northwest of a line from Poplar Bluff, Missouri to McLeansboro, Illinois to Winslow, Indiana. Southeast of this line, up to 18 inches of snow fell with the most snow recorded along a swath from Mayfield to Madisonville, Kentucky. Soil moisture is above normal with the recent snow melt and heavy rain. Frost depths are 1 inch or less. For the winter, most locations have been colder and drier. For the period December through February the region was up to 4 degrees below normal and precipitation was up to 2 inches below normal. Paducah, Kentucky recorded the second coldest February on record. With recent rains and snow melt, stream flows are running near or above normal for this time of year. ...Probabilistic Outlooks... In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 3/2/2015 - 5/31/2015 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Ohio River Evansville 42.0 48.0 52.0 : 29 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Golconda 40.0 50.0 55.0 : 49 <5 7 <5 <5 <5 Mount Vernon 35.0 45.0 52.0 : 81 <5 9 <5 <5 <5 Newburgh Dam 38.0 48.0 56.0 : 89 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 Owensboro 40.0 45.0 49.0 : 40 <5 8 <5 <5 <5 Shawneetown 33.0 43.0 53.0 : 91 <5 39 <5 6 <5 J.T. Myers Dam 37.0 50.0 60.0 : 85 <5 8 <5 <5 <5 :Wabash River New Harmony 15.0 20.0 23.0 : 82 <5 23 <5 <5 <5 :Green River Calhoun 23.0 26.0 32.0 : 48 <5 32 <5 7 <5 Paradise 380.0 386.0 400.0 : 90 <5 41 <5 21 <5 :Little Wabash River Carmi 27.0 32.0 35.0 : 66 <5 37 <5 19 <5 :Patoka River Princeton 18.0 20.0 22.0 : 57 <5 40 <5 22 <5 :Skillet Fork River Wayne City 15.0 17.0 20.0 : 44 <5 36 <5 23 <5 :Black River Poplar Bluff 16.0 19.0 21.0 : <20 <20 <20 <20 <20 <20 :Current River Doniphan 13.0 18.0 22.0 : <20 <20 <20 <20 <20 <20 Van Buren 20.0 23.0 27.0 : <20 <20 <20 <20 <20 <20 :St. Francis River Fisk 20.0 22.0 26.0 : <20 <20 <20 <20 <20 <20 Patterson 16.0 25.0 32.0 : 33 33 <20 <20 <20 <20 :Big Muddy River Plumfield 20.0 25.0 34.0 : 33 35 10 7 <5 <5 Murphysboro 22.0 28.0 36.0 : 60 64 24 29 9 7 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 3/2/2015 - 5/31/2015 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Ohio River Evansville 30.6 34.6 37.9 40.3 42.4 44.1 46.0 Golconda 34.3 36.1 37.8 40.0 42.6 47.4 52.3 Mount Vernon 29.7 33.2 36.5 39.0 41.5 44.5 47.4 Newburgh Dam 32.6 37.9 41.6 43.2 44.3 46.4 48.3 Owensboro 29.5 34.0 37.1 39.3 41.1 44.4 46.4 Shawneetown 30.5 33.9 37.8 41.4 45.2 49.4 53.9 J.T. Myers Dam 32.7 36.2 39.1 42.1 44.8 48.4 52.8 :Wabash River New Harmony 11.2 13.6 16.4 18.1 19.9 20.9 21.8 :Green River Calhoun 17.2 17.6 18.4 22.7 27.3 31.3 32.8 Paradise 379.4 380.0 380.7 384.7 388.6 394.7 397.6 :Little Wabash River Carmi 18.5 20.3 25.5 29.9 34.2 36.3 37.5 :Patoka River Princeton 10.7 13.8 15.5 19.0 21.5 24.8 24.9 :Skillet Fork River Wayne City 7.7 8.7 10.5 13.6 19.8 21.8 24.1 :Black River Poplar Bluff 8.5 8.9 9.6 9.6 9.7 9.7 9.8 :Current River Doniphan 2.1 2.1 2.9 3.6 4.7 7.0 8.5 Van Buren 4.7 4.7 5.3 5.8 6.7 8.9 9.9 :St. Francis River Fisk 8.9 8.9 9.2 9.6 10.3 11.5 13.8 Patterson 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.7 15.3 16.4 20.0 :Big Muddy River Plumfield 13.6 16.1 17.4 18.5 20.9 25.3 32.2 Murphysboro 16.6 16.9 19.9 23.0 28.4 35.7 38.0 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 3/2/2015 - 5/31/2015 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Big Muddy River Plumfield 8.3 7.9 7.1 6.1 5.3 4.7 4.5 Murphysboro 11.5 9.7 8.1 6.0 5.1 4.8 4.7 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction service. ...Weather Outlooks... Cold and dry weather will settle in for a few days before a warming trend starts that will take us into mid-March. This warming should melt the ice and snow within the next week. Though not all sites will go above flood stage, this will cause a significant rise on the region`s rivers. The 8 to 14 day outlook for March 12 through 18 calls for above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. During this time, normal average temperatures are in the middle and upper 40s and rainfall during this time is near one inch. The outlooks for March is for below normal temperatures and normal rainfall. Normal precipitation for March is between 4 and 4 1/2 inches. The seasonal outlook for March through May calls for normal temperatures and precipitation. ...Additional Information... This is the last of two Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlooks for the season. If warranted, another outlook may be issued later in March. Visit our web site weather.gov/pah for more weather and water information. $$ ML

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National Weather Service
Paducah Weather Forecast Office
8250 Highway 3520
West Paducah, KY 42086-6440
(270) 744-6440
Page last modified: 5-Mar-2015 5:45 PM
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