Hydrologic Outlook
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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000 FGUS73 KPAH 271819 ESFPAH ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181- 185-191-193-199-INC051-125-129-147-163-173-KYC007-033-035-039-047- 055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-149-157-177-219-221-225- 233-MOC017-023-031-035-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-021800- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 116 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015 In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 09/01/2015 - 11/30/2015 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Green River Calhoun 23.0 26.0 32.0 : 10 7 7 <5 <5 <5 Paradise 380.0 386.0 400.0 : 25 18 11 7 <5 <5 :Little Wabash River Carmi 27.0 32.0 35.0 : 15 13 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Ohio River Evansville 42.0 48.0 52.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Golconda 40.0 50.0 55.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Mount Vernon 35.0 45.0 52.0 : 6 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 Newburgh Dam 38.0 48.0 56.0 : 9 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 Owensboro 40.0 45.0 49.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Shawneetown 33.0 43.0 53.0 : 11 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 J.T. Myers Dam 37.0 50.0 60.0 : 7 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Patoka River Princeton 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 11 11 <5 6 <5 <5 :Skillet Fork River Wayne City 15.0 17.0 20.0 : 14 10 9 7 <5 <5 :Wabash River New Harmony 15.0 20.0 23.0 : 16 13 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Black River Poplar Bluff 16.0 19.0 21.0 : <20 <20 <20 <20 <20 <20 :Current River Doniphan 13.0 18.0 22.0 : <20 <20 <20 <20 <20 <20 Van Buren 20.0 23.0 27.0 : <20 <20 <20 <20 <20 <20 :St. Francis River Fisk 20.0 22.0 26.0 : <20 <20 <20 <20 <20 <20 Patterson 16.0 25.0 32.0 : 11 <20 <20 <20 <20 <20 :Big Muddy River Plumfield 20.0 25.0 34.0 : 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Murphysboro 22.0 28.0 36.0 : 12 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 09/01/2015 - 11/30/2015 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Green River Calhoun 11.9 12.1 12.9 14.4 16.8 23.0 27.5 Paradise 367.2 367.9 369.4 373.2 380.1 386.4 388.9 :Little Wabash River Carmi 3.7 7.6 10.9 14.9 22.6 29.4 32.0 :Ohio River Evansville 14.3 15.2 17.0 21.3 28.7 35.0 37.1 Golconda 29.6 29.6 29.7 30.7 32.7 35.8 37.1 Mount Vernon 23.5 23.7 24.0 25.0 28.4 33.6 35.5 Newburgh Dam 13.7 15.5 18.0 23.2 32.1 36.8 41.6 Owensboro 19.0 19.0 19.1 20.0 29.5 33.0 37.3 Shawneetown 15.9 16.6 18.5 22.8 27.4 33.4 36.3 J.T. Myers Dam 14.5 15.7 18.9 23.8 29.2 35.7 38.0 :Patoka River Princeton 6.1 6.6 8.2 9.8 15.8 18.1 18.6 :Skillet Fork River Wayne City 5.0 5.8 6.6 7.9 9.8 16.7 19.0 :Wabash River New Harmony 2.8 3.5 6.6 9.8 12.6 16.6 18.8 :Black River Poplar Bluff 1.8 2.1 3.4 5.2 6.5 7.8 8.7 :Current River Doniphan 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.2 2.1 4.0 Van Buren 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 4.2 4.9 6.5 :St. Francis River Fisk 1.2 1.2 2.0 3.6 4.3 4.9 7.2 Patterson 5.3 6.7 7.7 8.3 9.6 11.2 12.6 :Big Muddy River Plumfield 7.0 7.0 7.0 9.9 17.3 19.9 22.9 Murphysboro 3.3 3.3 4.7 9.8 17.4 23.8 27.8 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 09/01/2015 - 11/30/2015 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Green River Calhoun 10.6 10.5 10.3 10.3 10.2 10.2 10.1 Paradise 364.8 364.8 364.5 364.4 364.3 364.3 364.3 :Little Wabash River Carmi 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 :Ohio River Evansville 13.5 13.4 13.3 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.1 Golconda 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 Mount Vernon 23.3 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 Newburgh Dam 12.9 12.9 12.7 12.6 12.6 12.5 12.5 Owensboro 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 Shawneetown 15.3 15.3 15.2 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1 J.T. Myers Dam 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.4 12.3 12.3 12.3 :Patoka River Princeton 5.9 4.7 4.0 3.5 3.2 2.9 2.6 :Skillet Fork River Wayne City 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 :Wabash River New Harmony 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 :Big Muddy River Plumfield 5.3 4.8 4.3 4.0 3.6 3.5 3.3 Murphysboro 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction service. Visit our web site weather.gov/pah for more weather and water information. $$

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National Weather Service
Paducah Weather Forecast Office
8250 Highway 3520
West Paducah, KY 42086-6440
(270) 744-6440
Page last modified: 27-Aug-2015 6:19 PM
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