Hydrologic Outlook
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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092 FGUS73 KPAH 161926 ESFPAH ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181- 185-191-193-199-INC051-125-129-147-163-173-KYC007-033-035-039-047- 055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-149-157-177-219-221-225- 233-MOC017-023-031-035-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-231200- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 125 PM CST THU FEB 16 2017 ...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1... This outlook is for the NWS Paducah service area. It covers the time period for late February through late May. It includes the mid- Mississippi and lower Ohio Rivers and their tributaries for southwest Indiana, southern Illinois, west Kentucky and southeast Missouri. ...Flood Outlook Highlights... Flood potential is below average or below normal for most of the smaller tributaries in southwest Missouri and southern Illinois for this time of year. There is an average or normal chance of minor flooding on the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers and other tributaries in southwest Indiana and west Kentucky. Flooding in this region occurs mainly due to conditions of ground moisture, river flows, and expected precipitation. Ice jams are rarely a factor in flooding for this part of the country. ...Current Conditions... Snow...Frost and Soil Conditions...Precipitation since December 1 has been below normal across the region. Consequently, area rivers are running below normal for this time of year. Storage capacity on area lakes is running 98 to 100 percent. Snowfall has been minimal this winter. While some areas received up to 2 inches of snow during the first week of January, most locations recorded less than 1/2 inch. Very little snow exists across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys except in the far northern reaches. Even then, only a few inches remains with a liquid water equivalent of around 1 inch. Warmer than normal temperatures and a lack of rain or snow this winter have lead to soil moisture levels below normal. No days with a frost depth have been recorded this winter. ...Probabilistic Outlooks... In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 02/22/2017 - 05/23/2017 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Green River Calhoun 23.0 26.0 32.0 : 51 46 27 32 <5 10 Paradise 380.0 386.0 400.0 : 68 72 34 40 <5 <5 :Little Wabash River Carmi 27.0 32.0 35.0 : 52 64 31 37 17 21 :Ohio River Evansville 42.0 48.0 52.0 : 26 37 <5 <5 <5 <5 Golconda 40.0 49.0 55.0 : 39 53 6 6 <5 <5 Mount Vernon 35.0 45.0 52.0 : 69 81 7 8 <5 <5 Newburgh Dam 38.0 48.0 56.0 : 79 89 5 5 <5 <5 Owensboro 40.0 44.0 49.0 : 33 50 7 8 <5 <5 Shawneetown 33.0 43.0 53.0 : 74 90 26 45 <5 <5 J.T. Myers Dam 37.0 49.0 60.0 : 70 83 7 7 <5 <5 :Patoka River Princeton 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 52 58 33 42 14 19 :Skillet Fork River Wayne City 15.0 17.0 20.0 : 43 43 36 36 25 25 :Wabash River New Harmony 15.0 20.0 23.0 : 83 84 24 24 <5 <5 :Black River Poplar Bluff 16.0 19.0 21.0 : 25 27 <20 <20 <20 <20 :Current River Doniphan 13.0 18.0 22.0 : <20 <20 <20 <20 <20 <20 Van Buren 20.0 23.0 27.0 : <20 <20 <20 <20 <20 <20 :St. Francis River Fisk 20.0 22.0 26.0 : 20 25 14 21 <20 <20 Patterson 16.0 25.0 32.0 : 48 50 <20 <20 <20 <20 :Big Muddy River Plumfield 20.0 27.0 34.0 : 33 51 14 16 <5 <5 Murphysboro 22.0 28.0 36.0 : 42 56 23 30 8 9 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 02/22/2017 - 05/23/2017 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Green River Calhoun 14.4 16.9 19.5 23.1 26.2 29.1 31.1 Paradise 371.0 373.3 378.7 383.2 387.7 392.3 394.7 :Little Wabash River Carmi 15.7 17.1 23.0 27.3 33.6 36.2 37.5 :Ohio River Evansville 28.9 31.2 35.3 40.0 42.1 43.2 45.9 Golconda 33.6 34.3 36.2 38.7 41.8 46.6 50.7 Mount Vernon 28.5 30.1 33.8 38.6 41.0 42.9 47.1 Newburgh Dam 31.6 35.3 39.0 42.3 44.1 45.4 48.1 Owensboro 28.9 31.8 35.0 38.1 41.0 42.9 46.1 Shawneetown 28.1 29.2 32.7 38.0 43.2 47.3 52.0 J.T. Myers Dam 31.4 32.6 36.2 40.4 44.1 47.3 51.2 :Patoka River Princeton 9.8 11.1 13.4 18.3 20.8 23.8 24.5 :Skillet Fork River Wayne City 8.2 9.3 10.9 13.0 19.9 22.6 25.7 :Wabash River New Harmony 11.8 13.7 16.5 17.9 19.9 21.2 22.4 :Black River Poplar Bluff 8.0 9.7 11.1 12.6 14.2 15.4 16.7 :Current River Doniphan 0.7 1.2 3.0 4.0 4.5 5.3 6.2 Van Buren 3.2 4.0 5.3 6.0 6.5 7.3 8.0 :St. Francis River Fisk 9.1 11.7 12.6 14.9 15.9 17.9 20.0 Patterson 10.9 12.5 14.5 15.9 16.8 18.1 20.7 :Big Muddy River Plumfield 13.1 14.5 16.8 18.9 22.2 25.9 33.8 Murphysboro 11.6 11.9 15.1 19.9 27.7 34.9 40.4 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 02/22/2017 - 05/23/2017 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Green River Calhoun 11.6 11.4 11.0 10.6 10.4 10.2 10.1 Paradise 366.3 366.0 365.4 364.9 364.7 364.5 364.4 :Little Wabash River Carmi 4.9 4.3 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.6 :Ohio River Evansville 17.7 16.2 15.6 14.9 14.4 14.1 13.9 Golconda 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 Mount Vernon 24.1 23.9 23.8 23.6 23.5 23.4 23.4 Newburgh Dam 18.9 17.1 16.1 15.3 14.6 14.0 13.8 Owensboro 19.3 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 Shawneetown 19.3 18.1 17.0 16.2 15.8 15.6 15.5 J.T. Myers Dam 20.4 18.7 16.9 15.5 14.9 14.4 13.8 :Patoka River Princeton 6.6 5.0 4.4 3.6 3.2 2.9 2.7 :Skillet Fork River Wayne City 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 :Wabash River New Harmony 5.3 4.9 4.0 3.3 2.7 2.2 2.0 :Big Muddy River Plumfield 5.9 5.5 5.4 5.2 4.8 4.6 4.4 Murphysboro 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction service. ...Weather Outlooks... Warmer weather will return by the weekend with high temperatures once again 20 to 25 degrees above normal. A couple of storm systems will move across the region but rain totals through the next week will be less than 1/2 inch in most locations. The 8 to 14 day outlook for February 23 through 29 calls for above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. During this time, normal average temperatures are in the lower 40s and rainfall during this period is around eight-tenths of an inch. The outlook for March is near normal precipitation. Normal precipitation is between four and five inches. The seasonal outlook for March through May calls for near normal precipitation as well. Visit our web site weather.gov/pah for more weather and water information. The next outlook will be issued on March 2, 2017. $$

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National Weather Service
Paducah Weather Forecast Office
8250 Highway 3520
West Paducah, KY 42086-6440
(270) 744-6440
Page last modified: 16-Feb-2017 7:26 PM
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