Hydrologic Outlook
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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000 FGUS73 KPAH 192115 ESFPAH ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181- 185-191-193-199-INC051-125-129-147-163-173-KYC007-033-035-039-047- 055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-149-157-177-219-221-225- 233-MOC017-023-031-035-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-051200- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 315 PM CST THU FEB 19 2015 ...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1... This outlook is for the NWS Paducah service area. It covers the time period for late February through late May. It includes the mid- Mississippi and lower Ohio Rivers and their tributaries for southwest Indiana, southern Illinois, west Kentucky and southeast Missouri. ...Flood Outlook Highlights... Flood potential is average to below average or normal to below normal for this time of year. Minor flooding is expected due to rain and snow melt. Flooding in this region occurs mainly due to conditions of ground moisture, river flows and expected precipitation. Ice jams are rarely a factor in flooding in this part of the country. ...Current Conditions... Snow...Frost and Soil Conditions...A winter storm system dumped 4 to 12 inches of snow on the region on President`s Day. The heaviest swath of snow cut straight across the mid-section stretching from Patterson to Cape Girardeau, Missouri to Paducah and Madisonville, Kentucky. This snow had a high liquid to snow ratio and snow water equivalent ranges only from 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch through the heaviest snow areas. Conditions aren`t much different in the upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys with snow water equivalents around one inch or less. Rainfall has been below normal this winter and most of Kentucky is depicted in moderate drought on the National Drought Monitor. Stream flow conditions are running below normal. The Ohio River at Cairo is only 62% of normal. Soil moisture is near or below normal and frost depths are 1 inch or less. ...Probabilistic Outlooks... In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 2/23/2015 - 5/24/2015 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Ohio River Evansville 42.0 48.0 52.0 : 26 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Golconda 40.0 50.0 55.0 : 40 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 Mount Vernon 35.0 45.0 52.0 : 67 <5 7 <5 <5 <5 Newburgh Dam 38.0 48.0 56.0 : 82 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Owensboro 40.0 45.0 49.0 : 31 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 Shawneetown 33.0 43.0 53.0 : 86 <5 33 <5 <5 <5 J.T. Myers Dam 37.0 50.0 60.0 : 75 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 :Wabash River New Harmony 15.0 20.0 23.0 : 81 <5 22 <5 <5 <5 :Green River Calhoun 23.0 26.0 32.0 : 37 <5 25 <5 6 <5 Paradise 380.0 386.0 400.0 : 66 <5 33 <5 19 <5 :Little Wabash River Carmi 27.0 32.0 35.0 : 65 <5 36 <5 19 <5 :Patoka River Princeton 18.0 20.0 22.0 : 52 <5 36 <5 22 <5 :Skillet Fork River Wayne City 15.0 17.0 20.0 : 44 <5 36 <5 23 <5 :Big Muddy River Plumfield 20.0 25.0 34.0 : 40 35 12 7 <5 <5 Murphysboro 22.0 28.0 36.0 : 66 69 26 30 9 7 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 2/23/2015 - 5/24/2015 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Ohio River Evansville 29.2 33.3 35.0 39.4 42.2 43.2 45.7 Golconda 33.1 35.2 36.6 38.6 42.4 46.6 50.9 Mount Vernon 28.6 31.6 33.6 38.2 41.2 42.8 47.0 Newburgh Dam 31.2 36.5 39.4 42.3 44.1 45.4 48.0 Owensboro 28.4 32.6 35.1 37.9 40.8 42.8 46.0 Shawneetown 29.3 32.3 35.1 39.3 44.7 48.4 52.5 J.T. Myers Dam 31.8 34.7 37.0 40.5 44.2 47.6 51.4 :Wabash River New Harmony 11.6 13.4 16.2 17.6 19.8 20.8 21.6 :Green River Calhoun 14.2 14.8 16.5 19.8 26.1 30.5 32.6 Paradise 372.2 374.4 378.8 382.5 387.7 393.8 397.1 :Little Wabash River Carmi 18.6 21.6 25.4 29.5 34.2 36.3 37.5 :Patoka River Princeton 11.1 12.8 14.6 18.3 21.5 24.7 24.9 :Skillet Fork River Wayne City 8.0 9.3 10.6 13.6 19.9 21.8 24.1 :Big Muddy River Plumfield 16.0 16.6 17.7 19.2 21.3 25.5 31.0 Murphysboro 16.3 18.1 20.8 24.3 29.0 35.6 38.1 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 2/23/2015 - 5/24/2015 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Big Muddy River Plumfield 7.0 6.8 6.7 6.6 5.8 5.2 5.2 Murphysboro 6.5 6.2 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.0 4.9 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction service. ...Weather Outlooks... A complicated and diverse storm system will impact the region this weekend. At this time, precipitation will begin as light snow as early as Thursday night before changing over to a wintry mix early Friday. Snow and sleet will change over to freezing rain before changing over to all rain by Saturday morning. Heavy rain will be possible on Saturday with rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches expected. This will cause an immediate, and short term, flooding problem. At the onset of rain, snow-filled ditches and drainages will keep rainfall from draining off roads and other impervious surfaces. The 8 to 14 day outlook for February 26 through March 4 is for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. During this time, normal average temperatures are in the lower 40s and rainfall during this period is a little over three-quarters of an inch. The outlook for March is for slightly below normal to normal for temperatures and slightly above normal to normal for precipitation. Normal precipitation for March is between 4 and 4 1/2 inches. The seasonal outlook for March through May calls for normal temperatures and precipitation. ...Additional Information... This is the first of two Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlooks for the season. Visit our web site weather.gov/pah for more weather and water information. The next outlook will be issued March 5. $$ ML

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National Weather Service
Paducah Weather Forecast Office
8250 Highway 3520
West Paducah, KY 42086-6440
(270) 744-6440
Page last modified: 19-Feb-2015 9:15 PM
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