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Weather Forecast Office Burlington, VT

Northeast River Forecast Center

Special Weather Statement

Hydrograph

River at a Glance

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Probability Information Weekly Chance of Exceeding Levels Chance of Exceeding Levels During Entire Period Short-term Probabilistic Guidance (Experimental)

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Printable Image About this graph Tabular Data (UTC) Tabular Data (EDT) Datum: NAVD88 Metadata

NOTE: Gauge reading may be affected by ice. Forecast flows are unadjusted for ice. NOTE: Forecasts for the East Branch of the Ausable River at Au Sable Forks are issued routinely year-round. Vertical Datum updated from NGVD29 to NAVD88 by gauge owner.

Default Hydrograph Scale to Flood Categories   Return to Area Map

Downstream Gauge

Flood Categories (in feet) Major Flood Stage: 11 Moderate Flood Stage: 9 Flood Stage: 7 Action Stage: 6 Low Stage (in feet): -9999 Historic Crests (1) 18.51 ft on 08/29/2011 (2) 15.82 ft on 02/18/2022 (3) 15.22 ft on 11/09/1996 (4) 13.96 ft on 02/23/1990 (5) 13.27 ft on 01/12/2018 Show More Historic Crests (P): Preliminary values subject to further review. Recent Crests (1) 11.83 ft on 12/18/2023 (P) (2) 8.85 ft on 10/08/2023 (P) (3) 8.36 ft on 05/01/2023 (P) (4) 7.03 ft on 04/08/2022 (P) (5) 15.82 ft on 02/18/2022 Show More Recent Crests (P): Preliminary values subject to further review. Low Water Records Currently none available. For more information on your flood risk go to www.floodsmart.gov. Show FEMA's National Flood Hazard Layers FEMA's National Flood Hazard Layers not showing? Why aren't the FEMA National Flood Hazard Layers showing on the ESRI Map? Possible reasons: There are no FEMA National Flood Hazard Layers for the location which you are viewing on ESRI Maps. The FEMA Web Mapping Service (WMS) is down. Note: Your zoom level may have changed. ESRI's zoom levels must be between 14 and 16 to show National Flood Hazard layers.

Zoom Level:14 Legend FEMA Layer Gauge Location Disclaimer Latitude/Longitude Disclaimer: The gauge location shown in the above map is the approximate location based on the latitude/longitude coordinates provided to the NWS by the gauge owner.

Flood Impacts & Photos

If you notice any errors in the below information, please contact our Webmaster
18	Record flooding will occur throughout the Ausable valley with numerous homes and businesses flooded or becoming isolated by high water. Large sections of Routes 9N and 73 will flood and become impassable. Ausable Village may become isolated with large areas of the town flooded, such as Main Street, the Main Street bridge and the Jersey bridge. Safe access to many homes and businesses will be blocked by high water.
15	Severe flooding will be seen throughout much of the Ausable Valley from Keene to Jay, downstream through Ausable Village and Keeseville. Numerous sections of Routes 9n and 73 will flood with some homes and businesses becoming isolated by high water, similar to the flood of November 1996. In Ausable Village, Grove Road, School Street, Intervale Avenue, and homes in the Jersey area will flood. In Keeseville, the wastewater treatment plant and several homes and businesses along Route 9 will flood.
13	Major flooding will occur in many portions of the Ausable Valley. In Ausable Village, homes in the Jersey area and other lowland areas will likely flood. Several feet of water will cover Intervale Avenue, and portions of Grove Road and School Street may experience high water. Sections of Routes 9N and 73 will flood. In Keeseville, the wastewater treatment plant, as well as homes and businesses along Route 9 will likely flood. This stage is equivalent to the FEMA 1 Percent Annual Chance Flood.
11	Major flooding will likely occur in portions of the Ausable River valley. In Ausable Village, homes in the Jersey area including Intervale Avenue will flood. Water will cover Route 9N near Stickney Bridge including Clark Lane and Carey Road. Water will approach Route 9N near Stone House Road. In Keeseville, the wastewater treatment plant and businesses along Route 9 may flood. In Keene, water will cover Hulls Falls Road, Routes 73 and 9N near Marcy field. The Keene business district may also flood.
10	Parkland and adjacent parking lots will flood in Ausable Forks. In Jay, portions of Route 9N near Stickney Bridge will flood. Water will back up onto Clark Lane and Carey Road. Downstream in Keeseville, water will approach businesses along north Ausable Street, as well as the Keeseville wastewater treatment plant. Upstream in Keene, water will cover Hulls Falls Road and Routes 73 and 9N near Marcy Field.
9	In Jay, water will approach Route 9N in the Stickney Bridge area. In Keene, water will cover Hulls Falls Road, and Routes 73 and 9N near Marcy Field.
8	In Jay, water will cover Route 9N near Trumbulls Corner. Minor flooding can occur in Keene. Water begins to overflow onto Hulls Falls Road, Route 73, and Route 9N near Marcy Field. High water will impact interests at Alice Falls near Keeseville.
7	Minor flooding can occur in Keene. Water begins to overflow onto Hulls Falls Road, Route 73, and Route 9N near Marcy Field. High water will impact interests at Alice Falls near Keeseville.
Photos (1) Looking downstream toward Ausable village

About This Location

Latitude: 44.437500° N, Longitude: 73.681111° W, Horizontal Datum: NAD83/WGS84 River Stage Reference Frame Gauge Height Flood Stage Uses NWS stage 0 ft 7 ft Interpreting hydrographs and NWS watch, warnings, and forecasts, and inundation maps Vertical Datum Elevation (gauge height = 0) Elevation (gauge height = flood stage) Elevation information source NAVD88 544.9 ft 551.9 ft Survey grade GPS equipment, FEMA flood plain maps, newer USGS topographic maps NGVD 29 545.37 ft 552.37 ft Older USGS topographic maps, NGVD29 benchmarks MSL Not Available Not Available Older USGS topographic maps, MSL benchmarks Other Not Available Not Available   Current/Historical Observations: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Data and Site Info for Au Sable Forks

Additional Information

Potential River Levels Used to Estimate the Chance of Flooding and the Range of Possible River Levels 10 Day (HEFS) 7 Day (NAEFS) 7 Day (GEFS) Note: Use the official hydrograph at the top of this web page for river levels within the next 48 hours. See the Product Description Document link for more details on the interpretation of the 3,7 day graphics. Click individual graphics to enlarge. Near real-time webcam view of the East Branch of the Ausable at ASFN6

Resources

Hydrologic Resources Text Products Past Precipitation Forecast Precipitation River Forecast Centers River Stage Summary Area River Monitor Flood Damage Costs/Fatalities in the US Precipitation Frequency Information Inundation Mapping Locations Precipitation Frequencies for Northeast US

Additional Resources Area Hydrographs NWS Precipitation and River Forecasting AHPS Iframes for Developers Mobile iNWS for emergency management Monthly Hydrologic Conditions Report (NWS Form E-5) Northeast River Forecast Center Flash Flood Guidance Snow Information Flood Safety Ensemble River Forecasts Hourly Precipitation

Collaborative Agencies The National Weather Service prepares its forecasts and other services in collaboration with agencies like the US Geological Survey, US Bureau of Reclamation, US Army Corps of Engineers, Natural Resource Conservation Service, National Park Service, ALERT Users Group, Bureau of Indian Affairs, and many state and local emergency managers across the country. For details, please click here. NWS Information National Weather Service Burlington Weather Forecast Office 1200 Airport Drive South Burlington, VT 05403 (802) 862-2475 Ask Questions/Webmaster Page last modified: 2-Nov-2020 7:30 PM Disclaimer Credits Glossary Privacy Policy About Us Career Opportunities