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This probabilistic forecast is issued by the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center.
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About this graph
Forecasts for the South Fork Shenandoah River at Luray are issued routinely year-round.
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Upstream Gauge - near Lynnwood Upstream Gauge Downstream Gauge Downstream Gauge - at Front Royal
Zoom Level:14
Flood Categories (in feet)
Major Flood Stage: 25
Moderate Flood Stage: 20
Flood Stage: 14
Action Stage: 13
Low Stage (in feet): 0

Historic Crests
(1) 26.95 ft on 09/07/1996
(2) 26.72 ft on 11/05/1985
(3) 25.70 ft on 10/16/1942
(4) 25.40 ft on 10/01/1896
(5) 23.60 ft on 03/18/1936
Show More Historic Crests

(P): Preliminary values subject to further review.

Recent Crests
(1) 11.92 ft on 05/18/2011
(2) 17.60 ft on 04/17/2011
(3) 11.53 ft on 03/11/2011
(4) 16.88 ft on 01/26/2010
(5) 12.88 ft on 11/17/2006
Show More Recent Crests

(P): Preliminary values subject to further review.

Low Water Records
Currently none available.
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Gauge LocationGauge Map Marker
Disclaimer
Latitude/Longitude Disclaimer: The gauge location shown in the above map is the approximate location based on the latitude/longitude coordinates provided to the NWS by the gauge owner.
Flood Impacts & Photos Collapse
If you notice any errors in the below information, please contact our Webmaster
25 Numerous homes, buildings, and roads are flooded along the river west and southwest of Luray, along with many acres of farmland.
20 Water approaches homes and buildings south of Luray. Backyards of homes at the lower end of Egypt Bend Estates are flooded, and much of Ganders Drive and Kaufmann Mill Road are flooded.
17 Water covers the entire parking area at the Bixlers Ferry boat launch.
16 Portions of Kaufmann Mill Road, Ganders Drive, and Egypt Bend Road begin to flood.
14 Water covers yards and fields near the river southwest of Luray.
13 Water reaches the top of the boat ramp under the Route 211 bridge.
11 Water reaches the top of the boat ramp at Bixlers Ferry.

Other Real-time and/or Archive Data Sources:

Additional Information Collapse
Potential River Levels - Used to
Potential River Levels
Used to Estimate the Chance of Flooding and the Range of Possible River Levels
3 Day (SREF) 7 Day (NAEFS) 7 Day (GEFS)
SREF Ensemble NAEFS Ensemble  GEFS Ensemble 

Note: Use the official hydrograph at the top of this web page for river levels within the next 48 hours.

See the Product Description Document link for more details on the interpretation of the 3,7 day graphics. 

Click individual graphics to enlarge.

Collaborative Agencies Collapse
The National Weather Service prepares its forecasts and other services in collaboration with agencies like the US Geological Survey, US Bureau of Reclamation, US Army Corps of Engineers, Natural Resource Conservation Service, National Park Service, ALERT Users Group, Bureau of Indian Affairs, and many state and local emergency managers across the country. For details, please click here.
NWS Information
National Weather Service
(Baltimore/Washington) Sterling Weather Forecast Office
43858 Weather Service Rd.
Sterling, VA 20166
(703) 996-2200
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Page last modified: 21-Dec-2016 10:38 PM
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