Hydrologic Outlook
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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000 FGUS75 KBOU 271407 ESFBOU COC001-031-035-057-059-069-075-087-115-123-312359- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Denver CO 806 AM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024 In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stage are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is greater than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/30/2024 - 09/30/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :South Platte River South Platte 7.0 8.5 9.5 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Denver 11.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Henderson 11.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Fort Lupton 11.0 13.0 15.0 : 9 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Kersey 10.0 11.5 13.5 : 23 16 13 8 6 <5 Weldona 10.0 11.0 12.0 : 14 9 11 8 9 6 Fort Morgan 17.5 19.5 21.5 : 13 13 11 10 10 7 Balzac 10.0 11.0 12.5 : 13 12 12 11 11 9 Atwood 11.5 13.0 14.5 : 12 11 11 10 6 <5 Julesburg 10.0 11.0 12.5 : 11 10 6 <5 <5 <5 :Plum Creek Sedalia 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 11 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 :Bear Creek Morrison 9.0 10.0 10.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Sheridan 8.0 10.0 10.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Clear Creek Golden 8.5 9.5 10.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Derby 10.5 11.5 12.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :N Fk Big Thompson River Drake 5.5 6.0 7.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cache la Poudre River Fort Collins 9NW 7.5 9.0 10.5 : 12 10 6 6 <5 <5 Fort Collins 10.5 11.5 13.0 : 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Greeley 8.0 9.5 10.5 : 16 17 12 12 6 7 :North Platte River Northgate 8.0 9.5 11.0 : 7 13 <5 <5 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/30/2024 - 09/30/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :South Platte River South Platte 3.9 4.0 4.3 4.6 5.0 5.9 6.9 Denver 5.1 5.4 5.8 6.2 6.8 8.2 8.4 Henderson 5.8 6.1 6.6 7.2 7.9 9.0 9.5 Fort Lupton 5.9 6.1 6.9 8.1 9.2 10.8 12.1 Kersey 5.0 5.1 6.8 7.8 9.6 12.5 13.9 Weldona 4.2 4.2 5.7 6.6 8.3 11.5 14.4 Fort Morgan 11.3 11.3 12.4 13.5 16.0 21.2 23.8 Balzac 4.5 4.5 5.7 6.8 8.5 13.1 14.3 Atwood 5.3 5.3 6.5 7.7 9.2 13.7 14.9 Julesburg 6.8 6.8 7.5 8.1 8.6 10.5 11.2 :Plum Creek Sedalia 5.5 5.5 5.5 6.2 6.7 8.4 9.9 :Bear Creek Morrison 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.4 7.6 7.7 Sheridan 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.3 5.6 5.8 6.0 :Clear Creek Golden 5.1 5.3 5.8 6.0 6.5 7.1 7.3 Derby 5.1 5.3 5.5 6.3 6.8 7.5 7.8 :N Fk Big Thompson River Drake 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.7 :Cache la Poudre River Fort Collins 9NW 4.3 4.4 5.1 5.5 6.3 8.2 9.6 Fort Collins 2.6 2.8 4.1 4.9 6.1 9.2 10.7 Greeley 2.7 2.7 4.0 5.7 7.3 10.1 12.1 :North Platte River Northgate 4.5 4.9 5.7 6.4 7.0 7.8 8.4 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/30/2024 - 09/30/2024 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :South Platte River South Platte 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 Denver 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 Henderson 3.9 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 Fort Lupton 3.5 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 Kersey 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 Weldona 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 Fort Morgan 9.2 9.0 8.7 8.5 8.4 8.4 8.4 Balzac 2.6 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.6 Atwood 3.3 3.1 2.5 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.6 Julesburg 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 :Plum Creek Sedalia 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 :Bear Creek Morrison 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.5 Sheridan 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.0 2.0 :Clear Creek Golden 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 Derby 2.8 2.6 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 :N Fk Big Thompson River Drake 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 :Cache la Poudre River Fort Collins 9NW 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 Fort Collins 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Greeley 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 :North Platte River Northgate 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Visit our web site weather.gov/bou for more weather and water information. The next outlook will be issued by the end of April. $$

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