Hydrologic Outlook
Issued by NWS Eastern North Dakota/Grand Forks, ND
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000 FGUS73 KFGF 242026 ESFFGF NDC005-027-071-281200- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Eastern North Dakota/Grand Forks ND 0303 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018 ...DEVILS LAKE OUTLOOK FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL... Devils and Stump Lakes Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook .DISCUSSION... After a spring snowmelt crest of roughly 1449.9 feet, any additional lake level rises this summer will come from heavy rains. Recent climate outlooks call for near normal precipitation throughout the summer. The National Weather Service provides long-range probabilistic hydrologic outlooks for Devils and Stump lakes between January and September. They will not be provided between October and December. Depending on the season, the high or low water probabilities may be omitted due to their applicability to the hydrologic situation. .Chances of Devils and Stump Lakes Rising Above Given Lake Levels... The probability of exceeding a given lake level is the percentage of maximum lake level rises that are above that level for all the years that were run through the model using the precipitation and temperatures for those years during the valid period of the outlook. Interpretation Aid: There is a 50 percent chance that Devils Lake will rise above 1450.1 feet during the valid period and only a 5 percent chance that it will rise above 1450.4 feet. Probabilities for Exceeding Listed Lake Levels FROM MAY 20, 2018 TO SEPTEMBER 30, 2018 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ Devils Lake..... CREEL BAY 1450.0 1450.0 1450.0 1450.1 1450.2 1450.3 1450.4 Stump Lake..... EAST STUMP LAKE 1450.0 1450.0 1450.0 1450.1 1450.2 1450.3 1450.4 .Current and Previous Record High Lake Levels... * The current height of Devils Lake at Creel Bay is 1449.76 feet * The current height of Stump Lake near Lakota is 1449.77 feet * The most recent USGS provisional record daily average height for Devils Lake at the Creel Bay gage: ...1454.30 feet on June 27 of 2011 * Previous records: ...1452.05 feet on June 27 of 2010 ...1450.93 feet on June 27 of 2009 ...1449.20 feet on May 9 of 2006 ...1449.18 feet on June 17 of 2004 ...1449.17 feet on August 2 of 2005 .OUTLOOK SCHEDULE... - Between January and May, only the high water exceedances will be provided with valid periods ending at the end of September. - Special Spring Flood and Water Management Outlooks will be issued in late February and early March. - For June and July, both high-water and low-water exceedances will be provided. - For August and September, only the low-water exceedances will be provided with valid periods ending at the end of November. - No probability of exceedance/non-exceedance information will be given from October through December, since lake freeze-up levels will be given in the fall outlooks previously issued. .ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... The long-range probabilistic outlook is based on high and low lake levels that were calculated for the valid period using multiple scenarios of temperature and precipitation from 1949 to 2012 and current conditions of the lake, snowcover (in winter), and soil moisture. By providing the complete range of lake level probabilities, the amount of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic outlooks are part of NOAA`s National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS). A YouTube video on "How to Interpret River Outlook Products" is at: www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSoEgvsnpv4 This outlook is also presented as probability graphs of lake height for the full period as well as weekly probabilities. The outlook graphics and explanations that help in interpreting these outlooks are available on the NWS Grand Forks AHPS web page at: water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?/wfo=fgf Wind and wave forecasts for Devils and Stump lakes are available for a 7-day period when the lakes are sufficiently ice-free at: www.weather.gov/fgf/lake_info If you have any questions, contact the NWS at 701-772-0720. You can follow us on Facebook at www.facebook.com/NWSGrandForks and on Twitter at @NWSGrandForks. $$ weather.gov/fgf NNNN

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National Weather Service
Eastern North Dakota/Grand Forks Weather Forecast Office
4797 Technology Circle
Grand Forks, ND 58203
(701) 772-0720
Page last modified: 24-May-2018 8:26 PM
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