| Hydrologic Outlook |
| Issued by NWS Eastern North Dakota/Grand Forks, ND |
000
FGUS73 KFGF 251711
ESFFGF
MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-069-077-087-089-107-111-113-
119-125-135-159-167-NDC003-005-017-019-027-035-039-063-
067-071-073-077-081-091-095-097-099-281200-
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Eastern North Dakota/Grand Forks ND
1210 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019
...RED RIVER BASIN OUTLOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL...
This outlook covers the Red River of the North
and its Minnesota and North Dakota tributaries.
.DISCUSSION...
This outlook period begins May 6, 2019 and runs through July 28, 2019
rather than beginning on April 29, 2019 as normally scheduled. This
was done to help mitigate the effects of ongoing moderate to major
flooding across the basin on the outlook process.
However, some effects of the ongoing flooding can still be seen in
this probabilistic outlook issuance. The effects are generally seen
at the lower end of the distribution (higher probabilities) and are
more pronounced at locations that are currently in flood as of
issuance date. Therefore, use the higher probability information with
caution for locations that are seeing these effects (i.e., locations
that see a flat line in the conditional simulation at higher
probabilities).
Overall, this 90-day outlook calls for near normal to slightly above
normal chances for flooding across the majority of the basin as
compared to historical normals. The only exception is along the
Pembina River where probabilities are slightly below the historical
normals.
Climate projections indicate equal chances for above and below normal
precipitation (i.e., no strong signal either way) throughout the
months of May, June, and July. Temperatures for the month of May are
projected to be above normal and return to more normal values for
June and July.
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks now use 64 years (1949-2012)
of past weather, temperature, and precipitation for the
ensemble predictive hydrographs used in calculating the
probabilities of exceeding a river level for the valid period
of the outlook.
Outlook Schedule - The National Weather Service in Grand Forks,
North Dakota will be providing the Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Services (AHPS) Long-Range Probabilistic Hydrologic
Outlooks for the Red River of the North and its Minnesota and
North Dakota tributaries according to the following schedule:
- Near the end of the month throughout the year, except for...
- The Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlooks that will be
issued at least twice a month during the spring snowmelt
season beginning in mid-to-late February or early March.
The following message has three river data sections:
- The first (Table 1) gives the current and normal/historical
chances of river locations reaching their minor, moderate,
and major flood categories.
- The second (Table 2) gives the current chances of river
locations rising above the river stages listed.
- The third (Table 3) gives the current chances of river
locations falling below the river stages listed.
.Red River Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook by Flood Category...
Valid from May 06, 2019 to July 28, 2019.
In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS), or normal,
probabilities of exceeding minor, moderate, and major flood
stages are listed for the valid time period.
- CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
- HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical, or normal, conditions.
- When the value of CS is greater than HS, the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS
is less than HS, the probability of exceeding that level is
lower than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for Minor, Moderate, and Major Flooding...
Valid Period: 05/06/2019 - 07/28/2019
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (ft) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ------ ------ ------ : --- --- --- --- --- ---
Red River of the North.....
WAHPETON 11.0 13.0 15.0 : 69 53 40 26 13 7
HICKSON 30.0 34.0 38.0 : 28 15 8 6 <5 <5
FARGO 18.0 25.0 30.0 : >95 68 35 20 15 15
HALSTAD 26.0 32.0 37.5 : 23 15 12 7 6 <5
GRAND FORKS 28.0 40.0 46.0 : 55 35 15 11 <5 <5
OSLO 26.0 30.0 36.0 : >95 44 56 32 13 7
DRAYTON 32.0 38.0 42.0 : >95 27 17 16 <5 5
PEMBINA 39.0 44.0 49.0 : >95 32 >95 24 9 11
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (ft) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ------ ------ ------ : --- --- --- --- --- ---
Minnesota Tributaries.....
SABIN 13.0 15.0 19.0 : 41 25 8 <5 <5 <5
HAWLEY 8.0 9.0 11.0 : 19 15 14 10 <5 <5
DILWORTH 13.0 20.0 26.0 : 59 38 15 7 <5 <5
TWIN VALLEY 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 19 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
HENDRUM 20.0 28.0 32.0 : 45 28 17 10 <5 <5
SHELLY 14.0 20.0 23.0 : 18 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
CLIMAX 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 14 7 6 <5 <5 <5
HIGH LANDING 12.0 12.5 13.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
CROOKSTON 15.0 23.0 25.0 : 37 28 <5 <5 <5 <5
ABOVE WARREN 67.0 71.0 75.0 : 12 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
ALVARADO 106.0 108.0 110.0 : 12 10 9 7 <5 <5
HALLOCK 802.0 806.0 810.0 : 28 31 13 13 <5 <5
ROSEAU 16.0 18.0 19.0 : 6 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
Note: The Roseau numbers consider the flow thru its diversion
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (ft) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ------ ------ ------ : --- --- --- --- --- ---
North Dakota Tributaries.....
ABERCROMBIE 10.0 12.0 18.0 : 28 22 19 17 10 6
VALLEY CITY 15.0 16.0 17.0 : 11 <5 6 <5 <5 <5
LISBON 15.0 17.0 19.0 : 11 5 7 <5 <5 <5
KINDRED 16.0 19.0 20.5 : 16 16 12 7 7 <5
WEST FARGO DVRSN 18.0 20.0 21.0 : 13 11 9 7 8 6
HARWOOD 84.0 86.0 91.0 : 24 16 21 12 9 <5
ENDERLIN 9.5 12.0 14.0 : 18 12 8 5 <5 <5
MAPLETON 18.0 21.0 23.0 : 40 20 21 8 <5 <5
HILLSBORO 10.0 13.0 16.0 : 10 6 5 <5 <5 <5
MINTO 6.0 8.0 11.0 : 8 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
GRAFTON 12.0 13.5 14.5 : 6 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
WALHALLA 11.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 12 <5 <5 <5 <5
NECHE 18.0 19.0 20.5 : <5 20 <5 18 <5 6
LEGEND:
CS = Conditional Simulation (outlook for current conditions)
HS = Historical Simulation ( " " normal conditions)
ft = feet (above gage zero datum)
.Probabilities for Rising Above Listed River Stages...
from 05/06/2019 to 07/28/2019
In Table 2 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (ft) for the
valid time period at the locations listed.
Interpretation Aid: The flood stage for Wahpeton on the Red
River of the North is 11 feet. There is a 50 percent chance
that it will rise above 12.2 feet and only a 10 percent chance
that it will rise above 15.1 feet.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 05/06/2019 - 07/28/2019
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Red River of the North.....
WAHPETON 10.0 10.1 10.8 12.2 14.0 15.1 17.1
HICKSON 20.3 20.3 20.5 23.9 30.7 33.4 35.3
FARGO 20.7 20.7 20.7 21.7 27.4 33.4 34.6
HALSTAD 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.8 25.6 34.2 37.6
GRAND FORKS 27.4 27.4 27.4 28.5 35.3 43.1 45.1
OSLO 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.1 33.7 36.5 37.1
DRAYTON 35.7 35.7 35.7 35.7 36.7 40.5 41.1
PEMBINA 47.0 47.0 47.0 47.0 47.1 48.4 49.4
Minnesota Tribs: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
South Fork Buffalo River.....
SABIN 7.6 7.6 9.4 12.3 13.7 14.4 15.5
Buffalo River.....
HAWLEY 5.2 5.2 5.5 6.4 7.4 9.7 10.5
DILWORTH 8.1 8.1 8.9 14.2 17.5 20.8 22.2
Wild Rice River.....
TWIN VALLEY 4.5 4.5 4.8 6.2 8.2 11.2 11.9
HENDRUM 16.4 16.4 16.4 19.1 23.8 30.9 31.8
Marsh River.....
SHELLY 6.1 6.1 6.1 9.0 12.9 15.9 16.9
Sand Hill River.....
CLIMAX 6.2 6.7 7.8 10.6 14.9 22.3 25.5
Red Lake River.....
HIGH LANDING 6.1 6.1 6.4 7.3 8.9 9.5 9.9
CROOKSTON 10.5 10.5 10.8 13.5 16.9 20.5 21.7
Snake River.....
ABOVE WARREN 62.5 62.5 62.6 63.4 64.9 68.0 69.6
ALVARADO 99.5 99.5 99.5 100.7 104.4 107.5 109.3
Two Rivers River.....
HALLOCK 796.3 796.3 797.0 799.4 802.7 807.4 808.7
Roseau River..... considering the flow thru the Roseau diversion
ROSEAU 6.6 6.6 6.8 8.3 10.6 15.3 16.2
North Dakota Tribs: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Wild Rice River.....
ABERCROMBIE 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 10.2 18.2 20.6
Sheyenne River.....
VALLEY CITY 5.5 5.5 5.8 7.3 11.4 15.4 16.4
LISBON 4.6 4.6 4.6 6.8 11.1 15.3 18.5
KINDRED 7.2 7.2 7.2 9.4 13.3 20.0 20.7
WEST FARGO DVRSN 10.9 10.9 10.9 11.0 13.6 19.7 21.3
HARWOOD 77.2 77.2 77.2 77.3 82.9 91.0 91.6
Maple River.....
ENDERLIN 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 7.6 11.7 12.6
MAPLETON 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.2 20.8 22.2 22.6
Goose River.....
HILLSBORO 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.2 6.2 10.1 13.2
Forest River.....
MINTO 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.3 3.7 5.5 6.4
Park River.....
GRAFTON 7.6 7.6 7.6 8.0 9.2 10.6 12.3
Pembina River.....
WALHALLA 3.6 3.6 3.6 4.0 5.8 7.6 9.4
NECHE 5.7 5.7 5.8 6.2 10.0 14.2 16.8
.Probabilities for Falling Below Listed River Stages...
from 05/06/2019 to 07/28/2019
In Table 3 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (ft) for
the valid time period at the locations listed.
Interpretation Aid: The flood stage for Wahpeton on the Red
River of the North is 11 feet. There is a 50 percent chance
that it will fall below 7.9 feet and only a 10 percent chance
that it will fall below 7.4 feet.
...Table 3--Non-Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Not Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 05/06/2019 - 07/28/2019
LOCATION 95% 50% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Red River of the North.....
WAHPETON 9.0 8.9 8.7 7.9 7.7 7.4 7.2
HICKSON 15.8 15.5 15.2 14.0 13.6 13.4 13.2
FARGO 16.8 16.6 16.5 16.2 16.1 16.0 15.9
HALSTAD 11.4 11.2 10.1 9.0 8.4 8.1 7.9
GRAND FORKS 19.1 18.8 18.3 17.9 17.5 17.3 17.2
OSLO 14.9 13.9 12.8 11.5 10.5 10.1 9.9
DRAYTON 17.0 16.3 15.6 14.5 14.0 13.7 13.6
PEMBINA 21.9 21.4 19.4 17.3 16.0 14.9 14.7
Minnesota Tribs: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
South Fork Buffalo River.....
SABIN 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4
Buffalo River.....
HAWLEY 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7
DILWORTH 5.2 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.4
Wild Rice River.....
TWIN VALLEY 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6
HENDRUM 8.4 7.4 6.6 5.5 4.7 4.5 4.3
Marsh River.....
SHELLY 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2
Sand Hill River.....
CLIMAX 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0
Red Lake River.....
HIGH LANDING 6.2 5.7 5.2 4.6 4.2 3.8 3.5
CROOKSTON 7.7 7.6 6.8 6.3 6.0 5.6 5.4
Snake River.....
ABOVE WARREN 61.8 61.7 61.6 61.4 61.3 61.3 61.3
ALVARADO 97.9 97.8 97.4 97.1 96.9 96.8 96.8
Two Rivers River.....
HALLOCK 794.7 794.3 793.9 793.7 793.4 793.2 793.1
Roseau River..... considering the flow thru the Roseau diversion
ROSEAU 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.4
North Dakota Tribs: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Wild Rice River.....
ABERCROMBIE 1.8 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7
Sheyenne River.....
VALLEY CITY 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0
LISBON 3.8 3.6 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8
KINDRED 4.3 4.0 3.5 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0
WEST FARGO DVRSN 8.2 8.2 7.9 7.3 7.0 6.8 6.8
HARWOOD 73.1 71.6 69.9 69.5 69.3 68.9 68.9
Maple River.....
ENDERLIN 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
MAPLETON 12.4 9.1 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.7 8.7
Goose River.....
HILLSBORO 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0
Forest River.....
MINTO 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
Park River.....
GRAFTON 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2
Pembina River.....
WALHALLA 2.8 2.6 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6
NECHE 4.0 3.6 2.7 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.9
.THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS...
This long-range probabilistic outlook is based on a series of peak
river levels or crests taken from the forecast hydrograph results
of the NWS Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS). The model
is run for multiple scenarios starting at current river, snow, and
soil conditions using over 60 years of past precipitation and
temperature conditions that were experienced for those past years
during the timeframe of the outlook period. These crests can then
be ranked from lowest to highest and assigned an exceedance
probability. For example, for a series of 50 years, the lowest
ranked crest has 49 crests above it. Since 95 percent of the
crests are above it, it is assigned a 95 percent probability
of exceedance (POE).
A YouTube video on "How to Interpret River Outlook Products" is at:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSoEgvsnpv4
The probabilities can be used for risk management by using them as
an indication of the range of crests that may be expected during
the valid period of the outlook.
By providing a range of peak river level probabilities, the NWS is
contributing to the area`s Impact-Based Decision Support Services
that help with long-range flood planning and response readiness.
This outlook is a part of NOAA`S National Weather Service`s
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS).
This outlook was produced using precipitation and temperatures
for the years 1949 through 2012.
.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES...
This outlook is also presented as graphs of the probability of stage
exceedance for the full period and for weekly intervals during the
period. These graphs, together with explanations that help in
interpreting them, are available from the NWS Grand Forks AHPS web
page at:
www.weather.gov/grandforks or weather.gov/fgf
then click on "Rivers and Lakes" above the map.
Current river conditions for all river forecast points in the Red
River of the North and Devils/Stump Lake basins are available on
our web site. Also, 7-day deterministic forecasts will be issued
at least once a day when river forecast locations will be at or
above flood during that period.
Refer to the separate Devils Lake Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
for Devils and Stump Lakes probability of exceedance levels and
low-water non-exceedance levels.
If you have any questions, contact the NWS at 701-772-0720.
You can follow us on Facebook at www.facebook.com/NWSGrandForks
and on Twitter at @NWSGrandForks.
$$
weather.gov/fgf
NNNN
The National Weather Service prepares its forecasts and other services in collaboration with agencies like the US Geological Survey, US Bureau of Reclamation, US Army Corps of Engineers, Natural Resource Conservation Service, National Park Service, ALERT Users Group, Bureau of Indian Affairs, and many state and local emergency managers across the country. For details, please click here.
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