Hydrologic Outlook
Issued by NWS Eastern North Dakota/Grand Forks, ND
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000 FGUS73 KFGF 012026 ESFFGF MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024- 026>030-038-039-049-052>054-032030- Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 326 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2019 ...LATE WEEK WARM UP WILL ACCELERATE SNOWMELT AND INCREASE RUNOFF ACROSS THE BASIN... The slow melt will continue through the first half of this week as temperatures rise above freezing during the day but drop below the freezing mark again overnight. A warming trend is on tap for late this week and throughout the weekend which will accelerate snowmelt and increase runoff throughout the entire basin. Overall flood risk... Peak river levels due to snowmelt have likely occurred on the Red River at Wahpeton/Breckenridge. Preliminarily, this crest occurred early Monday morning around the 75% value of the March 15th probabilistic guidance. Barring any significant precipitation in the coming weeks, the remainder of the Red River basin will also likely see peak river levels in the 75% to 90% range of the probabilistic guidance issued March 15th. However, these peak river levels will still be contingent upon future precipitation. If significant precipitation happens to occur (especially concurrent with peak snowmelt rises), river levels will be prone to reaching higher levels, likely above the 50% stage levels of the March 15th guidance. Lastly, ice remains in the river channel for many locations that are currently flowing. Ice jams have already occurred in several locations with high probability of additional jams as the spring melt continues. Any forecasts/guidance will likely not take into account the full extent of possible ice impacts. Current conditions... Cooler conditions across the region this past weekend allowed the slow and gentle melt/thaw cycle to continue. Southern basin (roughly Fargo southward): The Red River at Wahpeton/Breckenridge has likely seen its spring peak (due to snowmelt) with water slowly making its way downstream to the Hickson and Fargo/Moorhead areas as the week goes on. As for the tributaries, the Buffalo and South Branch Buffalo rivers continue to see moderate flooding with minor flooding due to ice jams occurring on the Maple River in ND and the Wild Rice River in MN. Overland flooding continues across the farther southern valley and into west central Minnesota where numerous road closures remain in place. Further west into southeastern North Dakota, there has been some movement on local rivers and streams but plenty of snow and ice cover remains. Northern basin (roughly Fargo northward): North of Fargo, some rivers and streams have slowly begun responding due to snowmelt but movement thus far has been limited. Future conditions... A favorable temperature pattern for a continued slow melt will persist through midweek (highs above freezing during the day but dipping back below freezing at night). This will change by late in the week and continue throughout the upcoming weekend as much warmer air filters into the region. Beginning Thursday, a warming trend will take hold of the region with above normal temperatures expected. This will allow temperatures to remain above the freezing mark continuously throughout the daytime and nighttime hours. This will result in a bigger snowmelt and runoff push basin-wide. As for precipitation, a few weak waves are expected to impact the region throughout the week but precipitation amounts will be minimal. Next update... The area is now experiencing a more widespread melt, resulting in the issuance of 7-day deterministic forecasts for the southern Red River, through Fargo/Moorhead, and adjacent tributaries. Additional 7-day forecasts will be issued for points downstream /north/ from Fargo throughout this week. Stay tuned to further updates and/or summaries as the spring flood progresses. Please see www.weather.gov/fgf and click on Rivers and Lakes or on the Flood Briefing Page for the latest information regarding the 2019 spring flooding. $$ Lee

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National Weather Service
Eastern North Dakota/Grand Forks Weather Forecast Office
4797 Technology Circle
Grand Forks, ND 58203
(701) 772-0720
Page last modified: 1-Apr-2019 8:26 PM
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