Hydrologic Outlook
Issued by NWS Eastern North Dakota/Grand Forks, ND
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MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-069-077-087-089-107-111-113-
119-125-135-159-167-NDC003-005-017-019-027-035-039-063-
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Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Eastern North Dakota/Grand Forks ND
1210 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

...RED RIVER BASIN OUTLOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL...

         This outlook covers the Red River of the North
         and its Minnesota and North Dakota tributaries.

.DISCUSSION...

This outlook period begins May 6, 2019 and runs through July 28, 2019
rather than beginning on April 29, 2019 as normally scheduled. This
was done to help mitigate the effects of ongoing moderate to major
flooding across the basin on the outlook process.

However, some effects of the ongoing flooding can still be seen in
this probabilistic outlook issuance. The effects are generally seen
at the lower end of the distribution (higher probabilities) and are
more pronounced at locations that are currently in flood as of
issuance date. Therefore, use the higher probability information with
caution for locations that are seeing these effects (i.e., locations
that see a flat line in the conditional simulation at higher
probabilities).

Overall, this 90-day outlook calls for near normal to slightly above
normal chances for flooding across the majority of the basin as
compared to historical normals. The only exception is along the
Pembina River where probabilities are slightly below the historical
normals.

Climate projections indicate equal chances for above and below normal
precipitation (i.e., no strong signal either way) throughout the
months of May, June, and July. Temperatures for the month of May are
projected to be above normal and return to more normal values for
June and July.

  Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks now use 64 years (1949-2012)
    of past weather, temperature, and precipitation for the
    ensemble predictive hydrographs used in calculating the
    probabilities of exceeding a river level for the valid period
    of the outlook.

  Outlook Schedule - The National Weather Service in Grand Forks,
    North Dakota will be providing the Advanced Hydrologic
    Prediction Services (AHPS) Long-Range Probabilistic Hydrologic
    Outlooks for the Red River of the North and its Minnesota and
    North Dakota tributaries according to the following schedule:

    - Near the end of the month throughout the year, except for...

    - The Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlooks that will be
       issued at least twice a month during the spring snowmelt
        season beginning in mid-to-late February or early March.

  The following message has three river data sections:

    - The first (Table 1) gives the current and normal/historical
       chances of river locations reaching their minor, moderate,
        and major flood categories.

    - The second (Table 2) gives the current chances of river
       locations rising above the river stages listed.

    - The third (Table 3) gives the current chances of river
       locations falling below the river stages listed.

.Red River Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook by Flood Category...
              Valid from May 06, 2019 to July 28, 2019.

In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS), or normal,
  probabilities of exceeding minor, moderate, and major flood
  stages are listed for the valid time period.

  - CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
    based on current conditions.

  - HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
    based on historical, or normal, conditions.

  - When the value of CS is greater than HS, the probability of
    exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS
    is less than HS, the probability of exceeding that level is
    lower than normal.

...Table 1--Probabilities for Minor, Moderate, and Major Flooding...
               Valid Period:   05/06/2019 - 07/28/2019

                                         : Current and Historical
                                         :  Chances of Exceeding
                                         :    Flood Categories
                                         :   as a Percentage (%)
                         Categorical     :
                      Flood Stages (ft)  :  Minor   Moderate  Major
Location            Minor    Mod   Major :  CS HS    CS HS    CS HS
--------            ------ ------ ------ : --- ---  --- ---  --- ---
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON            11.0   13.0   15.0 :  69  53   40  26   13   7
  HICKSON             30.0   34.0   38.0 :  28  15    8   6   <5  <5
  FARGO               18.0   25.0   30.0 : >95  68   35  20   15  15
  HALSTAD             26.0   32.0   37.5 :  23  15   12   7    6  <5
  GRAND FORKS         28.0   40.0   46.0 :  55  35   15  11   <5  <5
  OSLO                26.0   30.0   36.0 : >95  44   56  32   13   7
  DRAYTON             32.0   38.0   42.0 : >95  27   17  16   <5   5
  PEMBINA             39.0   44.0   49.0 : >95  32  >95  24    9  11

                                         : Current and Historical
                                         :  Chances of Exceeding
                                         :    Flood Categories
                                         :   as a Percentage (%)
                         Categorical     :
                      Flood Stages (ft)  :  Minor   Moderate  Major
Location            Minor    Mod   Major :  CS HS    CS HS    CS HS
--------            ------ ------ ------ : --- ---  --- ---  --- ---
Minnesota Tributaries.....
  SABIN               13.0   15.0   19.0 :  41  25    8  <5   <5  <5
  HAWLEY               8.0    9.0   11.0 :  19  15   14  10   <5  <5
  DILWORTH            13.0   20.0   26.0 :  59  38   15   7   <5  <5
  TWIN VALLEY         10.0   12.0   14.0 :  19   8   <5  <5   <5  <5
  HENDRUM             20.0   28.0   32.0 :  45  28   17  10   <5  <5
  SHELLY              14.0   20.0   23.0 :  18   9   <5  <5   <5  <5
  CLIMAX              20.0   25.0   30.0 :  14   7    6  <5   <5  <5
  HIGH LANDING        12.0   12.5   13.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  CROOKSTON           15.0   23.0   25.0 :  37  28   <5  <5   <5  <5
  ABOVE WARREN        67.0   71.0   75.0 :  12   9   <5  <5   <5  <5
  ALVARADO           106.0  108.0  110.0 :  12  10    9   7   <5  <5
  HALLOCK            802.0  806.0  810.0 :  28  31   13  13   <5  <5
  ROSEAU              16.0   18.0   19.0 :   6   8   <5  <5   <5  <5
   Note: The Roseau numbers consider the flow thru its diversion

                                         : Current and Historical
                                         :  Chances of Exceeding
                                         :    Flood Categories
                                         :   as a Percentage (%)
                         Categorical     :
                      Flood Stages (ft)  :  Minor   Moderate  Major
Location            Minor    Mod   Major :  CS HS    CS HS    CS HS
--------            ------ ------ ------ : --- ---  --- ---  --- ---
North Dakota Tributaries.....
  ABERCROMBIE         10.0   12.0   18.0 :  28  22   19  17   10   6
  VALLEY CITY         15.0   16.0   17.0 :  11  <5    6  <5   <5  <5
  LISBON              15.0   17.0   19.0 :  11   5    7  <5   <5  <5
  KINDRED             16.0   19.0   20.5 :  16  16   12   7    7  <5
  WEST FARGO DVRSN    18.0   20.0   21.0 :  13  11    9   7    8   6
  HARWOOD             84.0   86.0   91.0 :  24  16   21  12    9  <5
  ENDERLIN             9.5   12.0   14.0 :  18  12    8   5   <5  <5
  MAPLETON            18.0   21.0   23.0 :  40  20   21   8   <5  <5
  HILLSBORO           10.0   13.0   16.0 :  10   6    5  <5   <5  <5
  MINTO                6.0    8.0   11.0 :   8   6   <5  <5   <5  <5
  GRAFTON             12.0   13.5   14.5 :   6   6   <5  <5   <5  <5
  WALHALLA            11.0   16.0   18.0 :  <5  12   <5  <5   <5  <5
  NECHE               18.0   19.0   20.5 :  <5  20   <5  18   <5   6

LEGEND:
    CS  =  Conditional Simulation (outlook for current conditions)
    HS  =  Historical  Simulation ( "       "  normal  conditions)
    ft  =  feet                   (above gage zero datum)

.Probabilities for Rising Above Listed River Stages...
                    from  05/06/2019 to 07/28/2019

In Table 2 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
  probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (ft) for the
    valid time period at the locations listed.

  Interpretation Aid: The flood stage for Wahpeton on the Red
   River of the North is 11 feet. There is a 50 percent chance
    that it will rise above 12.2 feet and only a 10 percent chance
     that it will rise above 15.1 feet.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                                 Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                   at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period:   05/06/2019 - 07/28/2019

LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON            10.0   10.1   10.8   12.2   14.0   15.1   17.1
  HICKSON             20.3   20.3   20.5   23.9   30.7   33.4   35.3
  FARGO               20.7   20.7   20.7   21.7   27.4   33.4   34.6
  HALSTAD             19.1   19.1   19.1   19.8   25.6   34.2   37.6
  GRAND FORKS         27.4   27.4   27.4   28.5   35.3   43.1   45.1
  OSLO                29.9   29.9   29.9   30.1   33.7   36.5   37.1
  DRAYTON             35.7   35.7   35.7   35.7   36.7   40.5   41.1
  PEMBINA             47.0   47.0   47.0   47.0   47.1   48.4   49.4

Minnesota Tribs:      95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
South Fork Buffalo River.....
  SABIN                7.6    7.6    9.4   12.3   13.7   14.4   15.5
Buffalo River.....
  HAWLEY               5.2    5.2    5.5    6.4    7.4    9.7   10.5
  DILWORTH             8.1    8.1    8.9   14.2   17.5   20.8   22.2
Wild Rice River.....
  TWIN VALLEY          4.5    4.5    4.8    6.2    8.2   11.2   11.9
  HENDRUM             16.4   16.4   16.4   19.1   23.8   30.9   31.8
Marsh River.....
  SHELLY               6.1    6.1    6.1    9.0   12.9   15.9   16.9
Sand Hill River.....
  CLIMAX               6.2    6.7    7.8   10.6   14.9   22.3   25.5
Red Lake River.....
  HIGH LANDING         6.1    6.1    6.4    7.3    8.9    9.5    9.9
  CROOKSTON           10.5   10.5   10.8   13.5   16.9   20.5   21.7
Snake River.....
  ABOVE WARREN        62.5   62.5   62.6   63.4   64.9   68.0   69.6
  ALVARADO            99.5   99.5   99.5  100.7  104.4  107.5  109.3
Two Rivers River.....
  HALLOCK            796.3  796.3  797.0  799.4  802.7  807.4  808.7
Roseau River..... considering the flow thru the Roseau diversion
  ROSEAU               6.6    6.6    6.8    8.3   10.6   15.3   16.2

North Dakota Tribs:   95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Wild Rice River.....
  ABERCROMBIE          5.7    5.7    5.7    5.7   10.2   18.2   20.6
Sheyenne River.....
  VALLEY CITY          5.5    5.5    5.8    7.3   11.4   15.4   16.4
  LISBON               4.6    4.6    4.6    6.8   11.1   15.3   18.5
  KINDRED              7.2    7.2    7.2    9.4   13.3   20.0   20.7
  WEST FARGO DVRSN    10.9   10.9   10.9   11.0   13.6   19.7   21.3
  HARWOOD             77.2   77.2   77.2   77.3   82.9   91.0   91.6
Maple River.....
  ENDERLIN             4.8    4.8    4.8    4.8    7.6   11.7   12.6
  MAPLETON            15.2   15.2   15.2   15.2   20.8   22.2   22.6
Goose River.....
  HILLSBORO            3.0    3.0    3.0    3.2    6.2   10.1   13.2
Forest River.....
  MINTO                2.0    2.0    2.0    2.3    3.7    5.5    6.4
Park River.....
  GRAFTON              7.6    7.6    7.6    8.0    9.2   10.6   12.3
Pembina River.....
  WALHALLA             3.6    3.6    3.6    4.0    5.8    7.6    9.4
  NECHE                5.7    5.7    5.8    6.2   10.0   14.2   16.8

.Probabilities for Falling Below Listed River Stages...
                    from  05/06/2019 to 07/28/2019

In Table 3 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
  probability of falling below the listed stage levels (ft) for
   the valid time period at the locations listed.

  Interpretation Aid: The flood stage for Wahpeton on the Red
   River of the North is 11 feet. There is a 50 percent chance
    that it will fall below 7.9 feet and only a 10 percent chance
     that it will fall below 7.4 feet.

...Table 3--Non-Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Not Exceeding Stages
                                   at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period:   05/06/2019 - 07/28/2019

LOCATION              95%    50%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON             9.0    8.9    8.7    7.9    7.7    7.4    7.2
  HICKSON             15.8   15.5   15.2   14.0   13.6   13.4   13.2
  FARGO               16.8   16.6   16.5   16.2   16.1   16.0   15.9
  HALSTAD             11.4   11.2   10.1    9.0    8.4    8.1    7.9
  GRAND FORKS         19.1   18.8   18.3   17.9   17.5   17.3   17.2
  OSLO                14.9   13.9   12.8   11.5   10.5   10.1    9.9
  DRAYTON             17.0   16.3   15.6   14.5   14.0   13.7   13.6
  PEMBINA             21.9   21.4   19.4   17.3   16.0   14.9   14.7

Minnesota Tribs:      95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
South Fork Buffalo River.....
  SABIN                6.2    6.0    5.8    5.6    5.5    5.4    5.4
Buffalo River.....
  HAWLEY               4.1    4.0    4.0    3.9    3.8    3.8    3.7
  DILWORTH             5.2    5.1    4.9    4.7    4.5    4.4    4.4
Wild Rice River.....
  TWIN VALLEY          3.2    3.0    2.9    2.8    2.7    2.7    2.6
  HENDRUM              8.4    7.4    6.6    5.5    4.7    4.5    4.3
Marsh River.....
  SHELLY               4.7    4.7    4.5    4.4    4.3    4.2    4.2
Sand Hill River.....
  CLIMAX               5.4    5.4    5.3    5.1    5.0    5.0    5.0
Red Lake River.....
  HIGH LANDING         6.2    5.7    5.2    4.6    4.2    3.8    3.5
  CROOKSTON            7.7    7.6    6.8    6.3    6.0    5.6    5.4
Snake River.....
  ABOVE WARREN        61.8   61.7   61.6   61.4   61.3   61.3   61.3
  ALVARADO            97.9   97.8   97.4   97.1   96.9   96.8   96.8
Two Rivers River.....
  HALLOCK            794.7  794.3  793.9  793.7  793.4  793.2  793.1
Roseau River..... considering the flow thru the Roseau diversion
  ROSEAU               6.0    5.9    5.8    5.7    5.7    5.5    5.4

North Dakota Tribs:   95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Wild Rice River.....
  ABERCROMBIE          1.8    1.3    1.0    0.8    0.7    0.7    0.7
Sheyenne River.....
  VALLEY CITY          4.8    4.7    4.4    4.2    4.1    4.0    4.0
  LISBON               3.8    3.6    3.2    3.0    2.9    2.8    2.8
  KINDRED              4.3    4.0    3.5    3.2    3.1    3.0    3.0
  WEST FARGO DVRSN     8.2    8.2    7.9    7.3    7.0    6.8    6.8
  HARWOOD             73.1   71.6   69.9   69.5   69.3   68.9   68.9
Maple River.....
  ENDERLIN             3.0    2.8    2.6    2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5
  MAPLETON            12.4    9.1    8.9    8.8    8.7    8.7    8.7
Goose River.....
  HILLSBORO            2.5    2.4    2.2    2.1    2.1    2.0    2.0
Forest River.....
  MINTO                1.8    1.8    1.8    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7
Park River.....
  GRAFTON              7.4    7.3    7.3    7.2    7.2    7.2    7.2
Pembina River.....
  WALHALLA             2.8    2.6    2.1    1.8    1.7    1.6    1.6
  NECHE                4.0    3.6    2.7    2.3    2.0    2.0    1.9

.THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS...

This long-range probabilistic outlook is based on a series of peak
 river levels or crests taken from the forecast hydrograph results
 of the NWS Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS). The model
 is run for multiple scenarios starting at current river, snow, and
 soil conditions using over 60 years of past precipitation and
 temperature conditions that were experienced for those past years
 during the timeframe of the outlook period. These crests can then
 be ranked from lowest to highest and assigned an exceedance
 probability. For example, for a series of 50 years, the lowest
 ranked crest has 49 crests above it. Since 95 percent of the
 crests are above it, it is assigned a 95 percent probability
 of exceedance (POE).

 A YouTube video on "How to Interpret River Outlook Products" is at:

         www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSoEgvsnpv4

The probabilities can be used for risk management by using them as
 an indication of the range of crests that may be expected during
 the valid period of the outlook.

By providing a range of peak river level probabilities, the NWS is
 contributing to the area`s Impact-Based Decision Support Services
 that help with long-range flood planning and response readiness.
 This outlook is a part of NOAA`S National Weather Service`s
 Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS).

This outlook was produced using precipitation and temperatures
 for the years 1949 through 2012.

.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES...

This outlook is also presented as graphs of the probability of stage
 exceedance for the full period and for weekly intervals during the
 period. These graphs, together with explanations that help in
 interpreting them, are available from the NWS Grand Forks AHPS web
 page at:

        www.weather.gov/grandforks or weather.gov/fgf

 then click on "Rivers and Lakes" above the map.

Current river conditions for all river forecast points in the Red
 River of the North and Devils/Stump Lake basins are available on
 our web site. Also, 7-day deterministic forecasts will be issued
 at least once a day when river forecast locations will be at or
 above flood during that period.

Refer to the separate Devils Lake Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
 for Devils and Stump Lakes probability of exceedance levels and
 low-water non-exceedance levels.

If you have any questions, contact the NWS at 701-772-0720.

You can follow us on Facebook at www.facebook.com/NWSGrandForks
 and on Twitter at @NWSGrandForks.

$$
     weather.gov/fgf
NNNN



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National Weather Service
Eastern North Dakota/Grand Forks Weather Forecast Office
4797 Technology Circle
Grand Forks, ND 58203
(701) 772-0720
Page last modified: 25-Apr-2019 5:11 PM
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