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FGUS73 KFGF 242026
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Eastern North Dakota/Grand Forks ND
0303 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018
...DEVILS LAKE OUTLOOK FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL...
Devils and Stump Lakes
Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook
After a spring snowmelt crest of roughly 1449.9 feet, any
additional lake level rises this summer will come from heavy rains.
Recent climate outlooks call for near normal precipitation throughout
The National Weather Service provides long-range probabilistic
hydrologic outlooks for Devils and Stump lakes between January
and September. They will not be provided between October and
December. Depending on the season, the high or low water
probabilities may be omitted due to their applicability to
the hydrologic situation.
.Chances of Devils and Stump Lakes Rising Above Given Lake Levels...
The probability of exceeding a given lake level is the percentage
of maximum lake level rises that are above that level for all the
years that were run through the model using the precipitation
and temperatures for those years during the valid period of the
Interpretation Aid: There is a 50 percent chance that Devils
Lake will rise above 1450.1 feet during the valid period and
only a 5 percent chance that it will rise above 1450.4 feet.
Probabilities for Exceeding Listed Lake Levels
FROM MAY 20, 2018 TO SEPTEMBER 30, 2018
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
CREEL BAY 1450.0 1450.0 1450.0 1450.1 1450.2 1450.3 1450.4
EAST STUMP LAKE 1450.0 1450.0 1450.0 1450.1 1450.2 1450.3 1450.4
.Current and Previous Record High Lake Levels...
* The current height of Devils Lake at Creel Bay is 1449.76 feet
* The current height of Stump Lake near Lakota is 1449.77 feet
* The most recent USGS provisional record daily average height
for Devils Lake at the Creel Bay gage:
...1454.30 feet on June 27 of 2011
* Previous records:
...1452.05 feet on June 27 of 2010
...1450.93 feet on June 27 of 2009
...1449.20 feet on May 9 of 2006
...1449.18 feet on June 17 of 2004
...1449.17 feet on August 2 of 2005
- Between January and May, only the high water exceedances will be
provided with valid periods ending at the end of September.
- Special Spring Flood and Water Management Outlooks will be issued
in late February and early March.
- For June and July, both high-water and low-water exceedances
will be provided.
- For August and September, only the low-water exceedances will be
provided with valid periods ending at the end of November.
- No probability of exceedance/non-exceedance information will be
given from October through December, since lake freeze-up
levels will be given in the fall outlooks previously issued.
The long-range probabilistic outlook is based on high and low lake
levels that were calculated for the valid period using multiple
scenarios of temperature and precipitation from 1949 to 2012 and
current conditions of the lake, snowcover (in winter), and soil
By providing the complete range of lake level probabilities, the
amount of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can
be determined. These probabilistic outlooks are part of NOAA`s
National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
A YouTube video on "How to Interpret River Outlook Products" is at:
This outlook is also presented as probability graphs of lake height
for the full period as well as weekly probabilities. The outlook
graphics and explanations that help in interpreting these outlooks
are available on the NWS Grand Forks AHPS web page at:
Wind and wave forecasts for Devils and Stump lakes are available for
a 7-day period when the lakes are sufficiently ice-free at:
If you have any questions, contact the NWS at 701-772-0720.
You can follow us on Facebook at www.facebook.com/NWSGrandForks
and on Twitter at @NWSGrandForks.
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