Hydrologic Outlook
Issued by NWS Eastern North Dakota/Grand Forks, ND
1 of 5 available versions  First Hydrologic Outlook Previous Hydrologic Outlook  Print this page Close this Window

NOTE: This product is more than 24 hours old.
000 FGUS73 KFGF 272149 CCA ESFFGF NDC005-027-071-281200- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Eastern North Dakota/Grand Forks ND 448 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019 ...DEVILS LAKE OUTLOOK FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL... Devils and Stump Lakes Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook The National Weather Service provides long-range probabilistic hydrologic outlooks for Devils and Stump lakes between January and September. They will not be provided between October and December. Depending on the season, the high or low water probabilities may be omitted due to their applicability to the hydrologic situation. .OUTLOOK SUMMARY... Generally normal precipitation has occurred across the basin since the last outlook with the snowmelt crest already having been reached. Therfore, no appreciable rise is expected throughout the summer under normal weather conditions. However, numerous extreme precipitation events over the course of the remainder of the summer could cause additional rises. The first non-exceedance probabilities of the season are included in this outlook. There is a 95 percent chance of lake levels dropping to 1448.5 feet with a small chance (5 percent) of dropping as low as 1447.1 feet. The most likely scenario (50 percent chance) predicts lake levels dropping to 1447.5 feet. Climate projections for the remainder of the summer and into the fall indicate generally equal chances for above and below normal precipitation. However, indications may be beginning to lean towards slightly wetter conditions for the second half of the summer. .Chances of Devils and Stump Lakes Rising Above Given Lake Levels... The probability of exceeding a given lake level is the percentage of maximum lake level rises that are above that level for all the years that were run through the model using the precipitation and temperatures for those years during the valid period of the outlook. Interpretation Aid: There is a 50 percent chance that Devils Lake will rise above 1449.2 feet during the valid period and only a 5 percent chance that it will rise above 1449.6 feet. Probabilities for Exceeding Listed Lake Levels FROM JUNE 24, 2019 TO SEPTEMBER 30, 2019 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ Devils Lake..... CREEL BAY 1449.2 1449.2 1449.2 1449.2 1449.3 1449.3 1449.6 Stump Lake..... EAST STUMP LAKE 1449.2 1449.2 1449.2 1449.2 1449.3 1449.3 1449.6 .Current and Previous Record High Lake Levels... * The current height of Devils Lake at Creel Bay is 1449.11 feet * The current height of Stump Lake near Lakota is 1449.04 feet * The most recent USGS provisional record daily average height for Devils Lake at the Creel Bay gage: ...1454.30 feet on June 27 of 2011 * Previous records: ...1452.05 feet on June 27 of 2010 ...1450.93 feet on June 27 of 2009 ...1449.20 feet on May 9 of 2006 ...1449.18 feet on June 17 of 2004 ...1449.17 feet on August 2 of 2005 .Chances of Devils and Stump Lakes Falling Below Given Lake Levels... The probability of not exceeding a given lake level is the percentage of lake level falls that are below that level for all the years that were run through the model using the precipitation and temperatures for those years during the valid period of the outlook. Interpretation Aid: There is a 50 percent chance that Devils Lake will fall below 1447.5 feet during the valid period and only a 5 percent chance that it will fall below 1447.1 feet. Probabilities for Non-Exceeding Listed Lake Levels FROM SEPTEMBER 01, 2019 TO NOVEMBER 30, 2019 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ Devils Lake..... CREEL BAY 1448.5 1448.2 1447.7 1447.5 1447.4 1447.3 1447.1 Stump Lake..... EAST STUMP LAKE 1448.5 1448.2 1447.7 1447.5 1447.4 1447.3 1447.1 The non-exceedance value for a listed percentage is the value where that percentage of all model cases run were below that lake level for the specified valid period of the outlook. .OUTLOOK SCHEDULE... - Between January and May, only the high water exceedances will be provided with valid periods ending at the end of September. - Special Spring Flood and Water Management Outlooks will be issued in late February and early March. - For June and July, both high-water and low-water exceedances will be provided. - For August and September, only the low-water exceedances will be provided with valid periods ending at the end of November. - No probability of exceedance/non-exceedance information will be given from October through December, since lake freeze-up levels will be given in the fall outlooks previously issued. .ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... The long-range probabilistic outlook is based on high and low lake levels that were calculated for the valid period using multiple scenarios of temperature and precipitation from 1949 to 2012 and current conditions of the lake, snowcover (in winter), and soil moisture. By providing the complete range of lake level probabilities, the amount of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic outlooks are part of NOAA`s National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS). A YouTube video on "How to Interpret River Outlook Products" is at: www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSoEgvsnpv4 This outlook is also presented as probability graphs of lake height for the full period as well as weekly probabilities. The outlook graphics and explanations that help in interpreting these outlooks are available on the NWS Grand Forks AHPS web page at: water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?/wfo=fgf Wind and wave forecasts for Devils and Stump lakes are available for a 7-day period when the lakes are sufficiently ice-free at: www.weather.gov/fgf/lake_info If you have any questions, contact the NWS at 701-772-0720. You can follow us on Facebook at www.facebook.com/NWSGrandForks and on Twitter at @NWSGrandForks. $$ weather.gov/fgf NNNN

Close this window


The National Weather Service prepares its forecasts and other services in collaboration with agencies like the US Geological Survey, US Bureau of Reclamation, US Army Corps of Engineers, Natural Resource Conservation Service, National Park Service, ALERT Users Group, Bureau of Indian Affairs, and many state and local emergency managers across the country. For details, please click here.

National Weather Service
Eastern North Dakota/Grand Forks Weather Forecast Office
4797 Technology Circle
Grand Forks, ND 58203
(701) 772-0720
Page last modified: 27-Jun-2019 9:49 PM
Disclaimer
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities