Hydrologic Outlook
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
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312 FGUS73 KFSD 221338 ESFFSD SDC005-011-027-035-061-067-079-083-087-099-101-111-125-127-135- MNC033-063-081-083-101-105-117-133-NEC043-051- IAC021-035-041-059-093-119-141-143-149-167-193-211800- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 834 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018 In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/24/2018 - 06/22/2018 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Floyd River Sheldon 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 56 37 33 22 <5 <5 Alton 12.0 16.0 18.0 : 74 30 25 14 5 <5 Le Mars 20.0 21.0 24.0 : 18 14 11 12 <5 <5 :West Branch Floyd River Struble 14.0 15.0 16.0 : 15 13 8 9 <5 <5 :Floyd River Merrill 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 11 13 9 8 8 <5 James 26.0 30.0 34.0 : 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Little Sioux River Above Spencer 10.0 13.0 15.0 : 70 64 32 22 <5 6 At Spencer 10.0 14.0 16.0 : >98 72 30 20 <5 <5 :Ocheyedan River Spencer 8.0 9.5 10.5 : 80 41 39 27 12 7 :Little Sioux River Linn Grove 18.0 19.5 21.0 : >98 72 53 49 24 20 Cherokee 17.0 21.0 24.0 : 66 60 17 16 <5 <5 Correctionville 19.0 21.0 23.0 : 21 19 15 18 11 17 :West Fork Ditch Hornick 20.0 22.0 27.0 : 35 38 25 23 <5 8 :Perry Creek Sioux City 24.0 26.0 28.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Big Sioux River Brookings 9.0 10.5 12.0 : >98 66 >98 55 42 34 Dell Rapids 12.0 14.0 15.0 : >98 54 45 39 22 31 Sioux Falls I-90 12.0 14.0 16.0 : >98 60 45 39 20 17 :Skunk Creek Sioux Falls 11.5 15.0 17.0 : <5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Big Sioux River Sioux Falls N Cliff 16.0 18.0 31.0 : 53 44 36 40 <5 <5 :Split Rock Creek Corson 8.5 11.0 14.0 : 33 30 21 16 12 11 :Rock River Luverne 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 20 13 10 7 <5 <5 Rock Rapids 13.0 16.0 19.0 : 64 46 24 16 13 9 Rock Valley 16.0 17.0 19.0 : 23 18 16 13 5 6 :Big Sioux River Hawarden 19.0 24.0 27.0 : >98 69 38 39 14 15 Akron 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 83 67 64 53 35 40 Sioux City 32.0 38.0 41.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :James River Huron 11.0 13.0 15.0 : 42 44 32 36 22 30 Forestburg 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 44 49 36 38 26 30 Mitchell 17.0 20.0 22.0 : 59 55 38 43 26 34 :Firesteel Creek Mount Vernon 8.0 13.0 15.0 : 44 40 9 10 6 8 :James River Scotland 13.0 14.0 16.0 : 50 54 43 43 30 34 Yankton 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 35 37 29 34 22 28 :West Fork Vermillion River Parker 9.0 10.0 11.0 : 12 14 10 12 7 8 :East Fork Vermillion River Parker 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 19 29 11 16 <5 <5 :Vermillion River Davis 11.0 13.0 15.0 : 31 51 18 30 5 11 Wakonda 14.0 15.5 17.0 : 28 48 21 41 17 37 Vermillion 21.0 22.0 30.0 : 12 28 12 23 <5 <5 :Redwood River Marshall 14.0 15.0 16.5 : 32 19 27 15 12 11 :West Fork Des Moines River Jackson 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 7 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/24/2018 - 06/22/2018 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Floyd River Sheldon 8.4 9.1 10.4 12.1 14.4 15.4 15.6 Alton 9.7 9.9 11.8 13.2 16.0 17.3 17.9 Le Mars 13.9 14.6 16.1 17.1 19.7 21.4 22.7 :West Branch Floyd River Struble 6.3 7.1 7.7 9.3 10.6 14.7 15.3 :Floyd River Merrill 3.4 3.9 5.2 6.4 8.7 13.2 16.5 James 11.9 12.4 13.6 14.8 17.0 23.1 26.1 :Little Sioux River Above Spencer 8.1 8.6 9.4 10.9 13.3 14.1 14.4 At Spencer 10.8 10.8 11.8 12.8 14.2 15.0 15.2 :Ocheyedan River Spencer 7.7 7.7 8.4 9.2 9.8 10.7 11.1 :Little Sioux River Linn Grove 18.1 18.1 18.9 19.5 20.9 21.9 22.6 Cherokee 14.0 14.2 16.5 18.5 20.4 21.7 22.2 Correctionville 11.0 11.5 13.8 16.4 18.8 21.3 23.2 :West Fork Ditch Hornick 10.1 10.7 12.8 17.3 21.9 24.6 26.3 :Perry Creek Sioux City 7.8 8.0 8.3 8.9 9.5 11.2 16.4 :Big Sioux River Brookings 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.8 12.5 13.3 13.4 Dell Rapids 12.1 12.1 12.2 13.6 14.8 16.2 17.2 Sioux Falls I-90 12.3 12.3 12.4 13.6 15.0 16.9 17.9 :Skunk Creek Sioux Falls 5.8 5.8 6.1 6.9 8.2 10.4 11.2 :Big Sioux River Sioux Falls N Cliff 13.3 13.3 13.5 16.2 20.8 23.9 26.2 :Split Rock Creek Corson 5.7 5.7 6.0 7.4 10.3 15.5 17.8 :Rock River Luverne 5.7 5.7 6.2 7.3 9.1 12.0 13.1 Rock Rapids 11.3 11.3 11.8 14.0 15.7 21.0 23.8 Rock Valley 10.2 10.2 11.6 13.9 15.5 18.2 18.9 :Big Sioux River Hawarden 19.7 19.7 21.5 23.2 24.8 28.0 29.3 Akron 15.8 15.8 17.4 18.6 20.9 22.9 23.6 Sioux City 17.6 17.6 19.2 20.6 24.9 30.6 34.4 :James River Huron 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.7 14.7 19.9 21.5 Forestburg 8.6 8.9 9.3 11.6 16.2 19.1 21.2 Mitchell 15.6 15.6 15.6 18.0 22.2 25.0 26.6 :Firesteel Creek Mount Vernon 4.0 4.0 4.9 7.7 9.5 12.0 15.5 :James River Scotland 9.4 9.4 9.4 12.9 16.4 19.2 20.2 Yankton 6.4 6.4 6.4 8.2 14.8 20.1 22.0 :West Fork Vermillion River Parker 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.5 5.4 10.0 11.4 :East Fork Vermillion River Parker 6.2 6.2 6.2 7.8 11.1 14.1 14.9 :Vermillion River Davis 6.3 6.3 6.3 9.4 11.7 14.7 15.0 Wakonda 6.9 6.9 6.9 11.9 14.7 17.5 17.6 Vermillion 6.4 6.4 6.4 11.0 13.3 24.6 25.7 :Redwood River Marshall 11.2 11.3 11.8 13.3 15.4 17.8 24.2 :West Fork Des Moines River Jackson 10.1 10.2 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.9 12.5 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/24/2018 - 06/22/2018 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Floyd River Sheldon 4.9 4.7 4.3 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 Alton 6.7 6.6 6.3 6.2 5.9 5.8 5.8 Le Mars 11.8 11.0 10.1 9.7 9.1 8.8 8.5 :West Branch Floyd River Struble 4.8 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 :Floyd River Merrill 1.7 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 James 10.4 10.2 10.0 9.8 9.6 9.5 9.4 :Little Sioux River Above Spencer 6.8 6.4 6.2 5.7 5.4 5.2 5.2 At Spencer 8.2 8.0 7.3 6.4 5.8 5.2 5.1 :Ocheyedan River Spencer 4.2 3.9 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.6 :Little Sioux River Linn Grove 17.0 16.8 16.6 16.3 16.1 16.0 16.0 Cherokee 11.3 10.8 10.2 9.0 8.4 7.9 7.9 Correctionville 9.1 8.5 7.9 6.8 6.2 5.9 5.8 :West Fork Ditch Hornick 7.3 7.0 6.8 6.5 6.2 6.2 6.0 :Perry Creek Sioux City 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.7 6.5 6.4 :Big Sioux River Brookings 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1 Dell Rapids 5.8 5.5 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.5 Sioux Falls I-90 8.8 8.7 8.5 8.4 8.2 8.2 8.2 :Skunk Creek Sioux Falls 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 :Big Sioux River Sioux Falls N Cliff 6.6 6.4 6.2 5.8 5.5 5.1 4.7 :Split Rock Creek Corson 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.1 :Rock River Luverne 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 Rock Rapids 8.3 8.2 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.6 7.5 Rock Valley 5.5 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.3 4.2 :Big Sioux River Hawarden 14.5 14.3 14.0 13.2 12.7 12.4 12.2 Akron 8.7 8.3 7.8 6.6 5.9 5.6 5.3 Sioux City 12.7 12.3 11.8 10.8 9.9 9.5 9.4 :James River Huron 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 Forestburg 7.5 7.3 7.2 6.9 6.5 6.4 6.4 Mitchell 14.8 14.5 13.8 13.2 12.6 12.5 12.4 :Firesteel Creek Mount Vernon 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 :James River Scotland 7.8 7.0 6.4 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.5 Yankton 5.4 4.9 4.0 3.5 3.1 3.0 2.9 :West Fork Vermillion River Parker 2.5 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 :East Fork Vermillion River Parker 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 :Vermillion River Davis 3.5 3.4 2.8 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 Wakonda 4.6 4.4 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.2 Vermillion 3.5 3.2 2.5 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.7 :Redwood River Marshall 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.5 7.3 7.3 7.3 :West Fork Des Moines River Jackson 8.9 8.9 8.6 8.2 7.9 7.8 7.7 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Visit our web site weather.gov/fsd for more weather and water information. The next outlook will be issued around April 26. $$ MG

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National Weather Service
Sioux Falls Weather Forecast Office
26 Weather Lane
Sioux Falls, SD 57104-0198
(605) 330-4247
Page last modified: 22-Mar-2018 1:38 PM
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