Hydrologic Outlook
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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000 FGUS73 KICT 091513 ESFICT KSC001-009-015-017-019-035-049-053-073-077-079-095-099-105-113-115- 125-133-155-159-167-169-173-191-205-207-232100- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Wichita KS 912 AM CST Thu March 9 2023 ...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 3... This outlook applies to the Wichita Hydrologic Service area (HSA) which includes the Arkansas River...Smoky Hill River...Verdigris River and Neosho River and their tributaries in central...south central and southeast Kansas. ...The chances for river flooding over central and south central Kansas will generally be below normal this Spring. There is a normal to slightly below normal chance of flooding for basins in southeast Kansas... Outlooks are routinely issued in February and March to give advanced notice of possible flooding. They are based on soil moisture, snowpack magnitude and streamflow at the time the outlook is issued. The vast majority of flood events in the Wichita Service Area result from short periods of higher intensity precipitation or longer periods of excessive precipitation. This outlook is valid from March 9th through March 23rd, 2023. The outlook is based on current climatological conditions. However, heavy rainfall at any time can lead to flooding even when the snowmelt flood potential is low. Convection, not snowmelt is often the primary driver of spring flooding in the service area. Recent Conditions: No snowpack is present across the service area at this time. Seasonal snowfall amounts have been below normal. Snowfall deficits were mainly between 2 to 5 inches with a few areas near 10 inches below normal. This winter season frozen soils were minimal in occurrence and in depth. As we jump into climatological spring, the chances of incurring frozen soils begins to decrease. However, it is still probable but would be short-lived. Over the last 3 months, precipitation was below normal to near normal across central and south central Kansas. This area received 50 to 100 percent of its normal precipitation. Southeast Kansas has received more moisture then the rest of the HSA during this period. Southeast Kansas received 75 to 125 percent of its normal moisture. Precipitation varied across the HSA during these last two weeks. Near normal to below normal precipitation occurred over large areas of the HSA. Percent of normal values ranged greatly from 25 percent of normal to near normal values. Some areas in central and south central Kansas received slightly above normal precipitation to 150 percent of normal. Mean temperature during the last 2 weeks were slightly above normal across central Kansas and going southeastward the departure from normal temperatures increased to 3 to 5 degress above normal. Soils have been dry across the western two-thirds of the HSA. CPC indicates soil moisture is below normal and ranked between the 10th to 30th percentile across central and south central Kansas. Over southeast Kansas, percentiles were near normal in the 30th to 70th precentile. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor issued 9th of March 2023, continues to show exceptional drought (D4) and extreme drought (D3) holding strong over most of southern Kansas. Severe drought (D2) and moderate drought (D1) is present in southeast Kansas and expands northwestward across parts of south central and central Kansas. There was a slight improvement in drought conditions in a small area over south central Kansas. Moderate and severe drought improved by a category in that area. Otherwise, a small percent of the HSA has abnormally dry conditions. (http://www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu) The U.S. Geological Survey 28-day average streamflow conditions map shows most basins are experiencing below normal to much below normal flows across the HSA. However, normal flow conditions are present at a few rivers and creeks across the service area. (http://waterwatch.usgs.gov) The U.S. Corps of Engineers data indicate reservoirs currently have most of their flood-control storage available for runoff from heavy rainfall events. Future Conditions: The U.S. Seasonal Drought outlook valid through the end of May 2023, indicates an improvement in drought conditions. Expect drought to remain but improve by at least 1 category. Drought removal is expected along the outer fringes of the drought area by the end of the period. There will be periodic chances of precipitation over the next 7 days. Forecasted amounts are between 0.10 to 0.50 inches. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Outlook for the 3 month period March-April-May, shows equal chances of above normal, normal, or below normal temperatures and precipitation across Kansas. The 8-14 day Outlook for the period March 15th through the 21st... (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) CPC shows a lean toward below normal temperatures as well as slight chances for above normal precipitation across the service area. In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/09/2023 - 06/05/2023 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Arkansas River Great Bend 12.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Hutchinson 8.0 13.0 19.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Haven 10.0 11.0 12.0 : 7 12 6 8 5 5 Derby 12.0 15.0 16.2 : 5 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 Mulvane 16.5 19.0 21.0 : 6 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 Oxford 17.0 20.0 23.0 : 15 17 5 7 <5 <5 Arkansas City 11.0 17.0 21.0 : 24 29 <5 5 <5 <5 :Walnut Creek Albert 24.0 25.0 25.7 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cow Creek Lyons 18.0 22.0 24.7 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 Hutchinson 9.5 10.5 12.5 : 33 20 20 7 <5 <5 :Little Arkansas River Alta Mills 22.0 25.0 27.0 : 15 19 10 12 <5 <5 Halstead 25.0 27.0 29.0 : 13 14 6 9 <5 <5 Sedgwick 22.0 25.0 26.0 : 10 13 5 7 <5 <5 :Cowskin Creek Wichita At 119th 18.0 22.0 24.0 : 8 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Ninnescah South Fork Murdock 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 11 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Ninnescah River Peck 17.0 21.0 26.0 : 6 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 Belle Plaine 23.0 24.5 26.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Slate Creek Wellington 19.0 22.0 23.5 : 49 39 27 14 6 <5 :Whitewater River Towanda 22.0 25.0 28.0 : 14 15 8 10 <5 <5 Augusta 21.0 25.0 30.0 : 8 14 5 6 <5 <5 :West Branch Walnut River El Dorado 21.0 22.0 24.0 : 12 14 10 12 9 8 :Walnut River El Dorado 19.0 23.0 25.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Augusta 23.0 28.0 36.0 : 10 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 Winfield 18.0 22.0 29.0 : 21 25 13 17 5 6 Arkansas City 18.0 22.0 28.0 : 11 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Chikaskia River Corbin 10.0 19.0 28.0 : 27 39 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Fall River Fredonia 17.0 27.0 36.0 : 26 36 8 9 <5 <5 :Verdigris River Altoona 19.0 21.0 26.0 : 21 23 6 7 <5 <5 Independence 30.0 47.6 53.0 : 32 37 <5 <5 <5 <5 Coffeyville 18.0 23.0 26.5 : 17 27 5 7 <5 <5 :Cottonwood River Florence 22.0 27.0 32.0 : 16 25 <5 <5 <5 <5 Cottonwood Falls 9.0 11.0 18.0 : 28 29 18 19 <5 <5 Plymouth 32.0 34.0 37.0 : 25 27 10 9 <5 <5 :Neosho River Iola 15.0 21.0 27.0 : 38 36 <5 9 <5 <5 Chanute 23.0 28.5 35.0 : 39 46 17 22 <5 5 Erie 29.0 32.0 36.0 : 36 40 23 30 12 17 Parsons 21.0 23.0 32.0 : 49 54 34 45 <5 <5 Oswego 17.0 20.0 25.0 : 49 50 32 35 7 9 :Salt Creek Barnard 21.0 23.3 24.9 : 9 24 7 18 <5 <5 :Saline River Lincoln 30.0 36.0 38.5 : 10 22 <5 9 <5 <5 :Smoky Hill River Lindsborg 21.0 29.0 33.9 : 17 35 8 7 <5 <5 Mentor 20.0 24.0 28.0 : 13 33 11 15 <5 <5 :Mulberry Creek Salina 24.0 26.0 27.4 : 26 36 17 33 5 6 :Smoky Hill River New Cambria 27.0 30.0 33.1 : 21 34 17 26 6 9 Russell 18.0 20.0 38.0 : <5 9 <5 5 <5 <5 Ellsworth 20.0 24.0 27.0 : 6 9 <5 6 <5 <5 :Saline River Russell 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 6 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/07/2023 - 06/05/2023 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Arkansas River Great Bend 0.7 0.9 1.2 2.0 3.6 6.5 6.9 Hutchinson 1.0 1.0 1.8 2.5 3.3 4.5 7.3 Haven 2.0 2.4 3.5 4.5 5.9 8.4 12.1 Derby 1.6 2.4 3.2 4.4 7.2 11.3 12.0 Mulvane 6.1 6.6 7.3 8.9 11.9 16.0 16.7 Oxford 8.1 9.0 9.8 11.5 13.9 19.0 20.1 Arkansas City 3.8 4.8 5.8 7.4 10.8 14.5 16.0 :Walnut Creek Albert 3.4 3.4 5.2 9.0 13.1 17.8 21.2 :Cow Creek Lyons 4.1 4.1 6.2 9.2 12.5 17.0 17.6 Hutchinson 1.7 1.8 5.2 8.1 10.3 11.0 11.6 :Little Arkansas River Alta Mills 0.1 3.9 6.5 11.6 16.9 25.2 26.0 Halstead 6.4 8.4 10.3 14.3 18.9 26.7 27.2 Sedgwick 4.7 5.5 7.2 10.6 14.6 22.4 25.3 :Cowskin Creek Wichita At 119th 7.3 7.4 10.1 12.5 14.4 17.7 18.8 :Ninnescah South Fork Murdock 3.8 4.1 4.5 5.2 6.1 8.2 9.6 :Ninnescah River Peck 3.0 4.0 4.9 6.4 9.2 15.9 17.5 Belle Plaine 9.5 10.7 11.8 13.6 16.1 20.5 22.6 :Slate Creek Wellington 4.4 6.4 8.1 19.0 22.3 22.9 23.7 :Whitewater River Towanda 3.6 5.2 6.7 10.4 15.3 24.6 26.0 Augusta 5.5 6.1 7.0 8.8 11.1 18.8 25.3 :West Branch Walnut River El Dorado 7.1 7.7 8.0 10.4 15.4 22.1 42.0 :Walnut River El Dorado 2.8 3.3 3.6 6.7 10.9 12.5 16.6 Augusta 6.6 7.0 7.6 12.1 18.0 23.3 25.6 Winfield 3.3 3.7 5.8 10.5 16.1 24.1 29.5 Arkansas City 4.6 5.4 7.7 10.5 14.0 18.5 19.7 :Chikaskia River Corbin 2.1 3.6 5.3 7.6 10.3 13.1 14.5 :Fall River Fredonia 5.0 6.7 8.8 13.3 17.2 26.0 30.0 :Verdigris River Altoona 6.5 7.5 9.7 13.8 18.5 20.3 21.4 Independence 9.4 10.9 15.9 24.0 32.7 37.8 41.0 Coffeyville 2.8 3.3 5.0 9.8 16.4 19.5 23.6 :Cottonwood River Florence 3.1 3.2 4.0 6.6 18.3 24.5 26.1 Cottonwood Falls 1.2 2.3 3.4 5.2 9.6 12.9 13.9 Plymouth 4.0 8.2 12.5 21.5 32.4 34.0 34.4 :Neosho River Iola 8.8 9.1 10.2 13.4 16.7 18.6 19.5 Chanute 11.8 13.3 17.0 20.9 25.9 31.0 34.7 Erie 16.0 17.7 22.4 26.1 31.3 36.8 41.5 Parsons 11.8 13.2 18.3 20.9 24.2 27.1 28.7 Oswego 9.7 10.3 12.7 16.8 21.4 24.1 26.0 :Salt Creek Barnard 4.5 4.5 5.1 7.9 11.0 19.6 24.1 :Saline River Lincoln 11.0 11.0 11.6 13.5 23.0 30.3 34.3 :Smoky Hill River Lindsborg 6.5 6.5 7.3 8.1 13.3 27.7 30.1 Mentor 3.9 4.0 4.7 5.4 11.1 26.1 27.4 :Mulberry Creek Salina 3.9 3.9 4.7 8.2 24.1 26.4 27.3 :Smoky Hill River New Cambria 9.5 11.2 15.8 21.2 24.6 32.1 33.8 Russell 3.5 3.5 4.1 6.3 9.6 12.5 16.0 Ellsworth 1.6 1.6 2.9 6.4 9.0 17.5 22.2 :Saline River Russell 4.6 4.6 4.6 6.6 8.7 15.3 18.2 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Based upon the above information, there is a generally below normal risk of flooding across most of the HSA this spring except southeast Kansas will see a normal to slightly below normal risk. A substantial part of this assessment is factoring in the below normal soil moisture and the current intensity of drought conditions. Any flooding that does occur this Spring will be largely dependent on the intensity and placement of additional precipitation and thunderstorms. This will be the last Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook this year. $$ Salazar

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National Weather Service
Wichita Weather Forecast Office
2142 South Tyler Road
Wichita, KS 67209
(316) 942-3102
Page last modified: 9-Mar-2023 3:13 PM
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