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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
735 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

This is the seventh Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook in a series
of routine Winter/Spring Flood Potential statements intended to
provide insight into the likelihood of river flooding (not flash
flooding) over the Lower Hudson River Valley, Northeast New Jersey,
Southern Connecticut, New York City and Long Island over the next
two weeks.

This outlook is based on current assessment of Hydro-Meteorological
factors which contribute to river flooding. These factors include
recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover and snow water
equivalent, river ice, stream flow and future weather conditions.
This outlook does not address the severity of any future river
flooding.

The latest climate prediction center 6 to 10 day outlook valid from
April 2nd through the 6th suggests near normal temperatures and above
normal precipitation across the Hydrologic Service Area.
The 8 to 14 day outlook valid from April 4th through
the 10th suggests near normal temperatures and near normal
precipitation across the Hydrologic Service Area.

Heavy rainfall is the primary factor which leads to river flooding.
It is important to note that heavy rainfall can rapidly cause river
flooding any time of the year, even when overall river flooding
potential is considered low or below normal.

Current flooding - None.

Precipitation - Precipitation departures from normal across the
Hydrologic Service Area for the last 60 days were anywhere between 2
to 6 inches above normal across the entire Hydrologic Service Area.

Snow Conditions – Below normal. There is currently no snow on the
ground across the Hydrologic Service Area.

River flows - Across the local Hydrologic Service Area, rivers and
streams are running normal to above normal. Real-Time Water data can
be found by visiting the USGS at www.usgs.gov/water.

Soil moisture – Above normal. Soil moisture and drought related data
and charts can be seen at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif and
www.drought.gov.

Reservoir conditions - Reservoir levels across the New York City
water supply system were 5 percent above normal. Reservoir levels
across the combined 13 Northeast New Jersey reservoirs were 10
percent above normal.

Summary - During the two-week outlook period ending on April 11th
expect temperatures be near normal. Precipitation will start above
normal during the first week then near normal during the second week
of this outlook period across the Hydrologic Service Area.

Flood potential outlook for the next two weeks ending on April 11th
will be normal.

For more information on the threat for river flooding please visit:
www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs

For complete weather information, visit our web site at:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=okx

You can follow us on Facebook at: www.facebook.com/NWSNewYorkNY

You can follow us on Twitter at: @NWSNewYorkNY

The next Spring Flood Potential Outlook will be issued by this
office in two weeks, on April 11, 2024.