Hydrologic Outlook

Hydrologic Outlook
INC005-011-013-015-021-023-027-031-035-045-055-057-059-063-065-
067-071-079-081-083-093-095-097-101-105-107-109-119-121-133-135-
139-145-153-157-159-165-167-171-232200-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
453 PM EST Thu Feb 21 2019

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCE OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL AND MUCH OF
SOUTHERN INDIANA...

.Discussion...

The late winter flood potential outlook for much of the White and
Wabash River basins in central and southern Indiana is above
normal. An above normal flood potential outlook means that
significant rainfall is expected in the near future which could lead
to extensive flooding across central and southern Indiana.

As of February 21st, stream levels in central and southern Indiana
were above normal for this time of year. Flooding was ongoing
along the lower stretches of the White and Wabash basins with
waters expected to stay above flood stage through early March.

Much of central and southern Indiana experienced extensive flooding
earlier this month with widespread minor flooding and scattered
moderate flooding. With soils very saturated, any rainfall will lead
to higher than normal runoff. Soil moisture is expected to remain
above normal through much of Spring which could lead to more
frequent floods than normal.

Heavy rain is expected this weekend across with the heaviest rain
falling across southern Indiana.  This will lead to another round of
flooding in locations that flooding has ended and prolong ongoing
flooding.

The 6 to 10 day outlook from February 26th to March 2nd
And the 8 to 14 day outlook from February 28th through March
6th indicates near to below average precipitation and below
average temperatures across Indiana.

Anyone with interests in flood prone areas should remain alert to
changing weather conditions. Flood conditions can develop quickly
during early march. Many of the significant floods to strike
Indiana have occurred during March.

Additional statements will be issued as changing weather and river
conditions warrant. The next flood outlook will be issued March
6th.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available for
precipitation and temperatures forecasts and current soil moisture
data at www.cpc.noaa.gov/products. Current snowpack data are
available at www.nohrsc.nws.gov/nsa. Current streamflow data are
available at water.usgs.gov/watchwatch. Visit out home page at
weather.gov/ind for more weather and water information.



.Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook by Flood Category...


In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS), or normal,
 probabilities of exceeding minor, moderate, and major flood stages
 are listed for the valid time period.

  - CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
    based on current conditions.

  - HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
    based on historical, or normal, conditions.

  - When the value of CS is greater than HS, the probability of
    exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS
    is less than HS, the probability of exceeding that level is lower
    than normal.

...Table 1 Probabilities for Minor, Moderate, and Major Flooding...
               Valid Period: 02/25/2019 - 05/26/2019

                   Current and Historical Chances of
             Exceeding Flood Categories as a Percentage (%)

                     Categorical    :
                 Flood Stages (ft)  :  Minor   Moderate    Major
Location       Minor    Mod   Major :  CS HS    CS HS      CS HS
--------       ------ ------ ------ : --- ---  --- ---    --- ---
Big Blue River
Shelbyville    13.0   15.0   18.0     29   29   18  18    <5   <5

Driftwood River
Edinburgh 2 SW 11.0   14.0   17.0     59   70   18   21   <5   <5

Flatrock River
Columbus       11.0   15.0   17.0     48   46    8   <5   <5   <5

Muscatatuck River
Vernon          17.0   27.0   32.0    21   21   <5   <5   <5   <5

East Fork White River
Columbus        9.0   14.0   16.0     34   35    5   <5   <5   <5
Rivervale      20.0   30.0   35.0     75   73   15   15   <5   <5
Bedford        20.0   27.0   32.0     60   59   18   17   <5   <5
Seymour        12.0   17.0   19.0     90   93   29   27   <5   <5
Shoals         20.0   25.0   30.0     35   36   19   18    7    6
Williams        8.0   14.0   19.0     65   66   20   18   <5   <5

Eagle Creek
Zionsville      9.0   11.0   15.0     17   17    8    7   <5   <5

Eel River
Bowling Green  15.0   20.0   23.0     61   62   20   25   <5   <5

White River
Anderson       10.0   15.0   18.0     45   24    6    5   <5   <5
Eagle Valley  603.0  607.0  610.0     53   56    7    6   <5   <5
Centerton      12.0   16.0   19.0     51   54    8    7   <5   <5
Elliston       18.0   25.0   29.0    >95   92   26   23   <5   <5
Edwardsport    15.0   22.0   25.0    >95   95   25   22   <5   <5
Hazleton       16.0   24.0   28.0    >95   93   32   29   10    7
Indianapolis   16.0   20.0   22.0     <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Muncie          9.0   12.0   15.0      9    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
Noblesville    14.0   19.0   21.0     40   40    6   <5   <5   <5
Nora           11.0   16.0   19.0     40   42    7    6   <5   <5
Newberry       13.0   19.0   24.0     76   80   24   34   <5   <5
Petersburg     16.0   23.5   26.0    >95   93   33   26   14    7
Ravenswood      6.0   10.0   12.0     55   49    8    6   <5   <5
Spencer        14.0   20.0   24.0     90   87   18   18   <5   <5

Sugar Creek
Crawfordsville  8.0   10.0   14.0     18   20    9   11   <5   <5

Tippecanoe River
Delphi          8.0   12.0   15.0     53   43   <5    6   <5   <5

Wildcat Creek
Lafayette      10.0   15.0   19.5     63   63   13   16   <5    7

Wabash River
Covington      16.0   24.0   28.0    >95   91   21   20   <5   <5
Hutsonville    16.0   24.0   28.0    >95  >95   18   18   <5   <5
Lafayette      11.0   18.0   26.0    >95   93   33   31   <5   <5
Mount Carmel   19.0   25.0   32.0     89   86   45   40   <5   <5
Montezuma      14.0   24.0   30.0    >95  >95   28   24   <5   <5
Riverton       15.0   22.0   26.0    >95  >95   32   27   <5   <5
Terre Haute    16.5   24.5   30.0     80   91   75   52   <5   <5
Vincennes      16.0   22.0   28.0     88   80   26   24   <5   <5

LEGEND:
    CS  =  Conditional Simulation (Outlook for current conditions)
    HS  =  Historical  Simulation ( "       "  normal  conditions)
    ft  =  Feet                   (above gage zero datum)



.Probabilities for Rising Above Listed River Stages...

...Table 2--Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook by River Stage...

               Valid Period:   02/26/2019 - 05/26/2019
               Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations

               95%    90%   75%    50%    25%    10%   5%
               ---    ---   ---    ---    ---    ---   ---
Big Blue River
Shelbyville    7.7   8.7    9.9   11.5   13.3   17.2   17.6

Driftwood River
Edinburgh      7.0   8.3   10.1   11.5   13.2   15.0   15.1

Flatrock River
Columbus       7.2   7.9    9.4   10.8   13.1   14.7   15.5

Muscatatuck River
Deputy        10.1  11.8   16.3   21.4   24.6   28.0   28.8

East Fork White River
Columbus       2.6   3.2    5.2    7.4    9.9   13.3   14.0
Rivervale     14.6  17.8   20.1   23.3   27.2   31.4   34.2
Bedford       13.6  16.4   18.5   21.0   24.7   29.7   31.3
Seymour        9.9  12.1   14.2   16.1   17.2   18.3   18.7
Shoals         8.7  11.2   13.1   16.1   22.7   28.3   31.4
Williams       5.5   6.7    7.5    8.8   12.3   17.1   18.2

Tippecanoe River
Delphi         5.4   6.0    6.7    8.2    9.5   11.0   11.7

Wabash River
Covington     16.0  17.3   19.9   21.2   23.5   25.1   26.1
Hutsonville   16.8  18.9   20.6   21.6   23.5   24.6   25.9
Lafayette     11.3  12.1   14.8   16.4   18.7   20.2   22.0
Mt. Carmel    16.9  18.7   22.1   24.4   27.3   29.4   31.5
Montezuma     14.8  17.0   20.0   21.7   24.3   25.4   26.5
Riverton      15.5  17.6   19.3   20.5   22.6   24.0   25.5
Terre Haute   16.7  18.6   21.1   22.3   24.6   25.6   26.1
Vincennes     12.7  15.7   17.8   19.7   22.0   24.1   26.0

Wildcat Creek
Lafayette     7.1    7.8    9.2   10.9   12.7   15.6   18.3

Eagle Creek
Zionsville    2.7    3.2    3.9    4.6    7.3   10.4   11.6

Eel River
Bowling Green11.8   12.6   14.0   15.8   19.5   21.2   21.7

White River
Anderson      7.3    8.2    9.0    9.8   10.8   12.1   16.0
Eagle Valley600.2  600.5  601.7  603.2  605.1  606.4  607.6
Centerton     8.0    8.5   10.1   12.1   14.4   15.7   16.4
Elliston     18.4   19.0   20.3   22.6   25.1   26.7   27.2
Edwardsport  15.5   16.2   18.0   19.5   22.0   23.9   24.4
Hazleton     16.9   17.9   20.3   22.1   24.7   27.9   29.1
Indianapolis  7.8    8.4    9.7   10.9   12.2   14.6   15.2
Muncie        5.9    6.5    6.8    7.2    7.8    8.5   10.1
Noblesville   8.9    9.5   11.5   12.9   15.7   17.9   19.3
Nora          6.9    7.2    9.0   10.2   12.3   15.3   16.4
Newberry     10.7   11.5   13.2   15.8   18.8   21.8   22.4
Petersburg   16.3   17.2   19.5   21.6   24.3   26.6   27.5
Ravenswood    3.5    3.8    5.3    6.2    7.5    9.7   10.5
Spencer      13.1   14.1   15.9   17.3   19.0   21.1   22.5

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.


$$