Hurricane Local Statement

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Local Statement Advisory Number 1
LAZ034>037-039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-180015-

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Local Statement Advisory Number 1
National Weather Service New Orleans LA  AL162019
1105 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

This product covers Southeast Louisiana and South Mississippi

Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 has developed in the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico.  The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or
subtropical storm later today or tonight.

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Lower Jefferson,
      Lower Plaquemines, and Lower St. Bernard

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lower Jefferson,
      Lower Plaquemines, and Lower St. Bernard

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 620 miles southwest of New Orleans LA or about 590 miles
      southwest of Grand Isle LA
    - 22.4N 95.7W
    - Storm Intensity 35 mph
    - Movement North or 355 degrees at 8 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

OVERVIEW...

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 22.4 North, longitude 95.7 West.  The system is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A turn toward the northeast
is expected this afternoon or tonight, and a northeastward motion
at a faster forward speed is expected on Friday and Saturday.  On
the forecast track, the system will approach the northern Gulf
coast Friday and Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or
subtropical storm later today or tonight, with slow strengthening
then expected through Friday night.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
extreme southeastern Louisiana and the coastal waters.
Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

Elsewhere across Southeast Louisiana and South Mississippi, little to
no impact is anticipated.

* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across coastal southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi.
Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

Elsewhere across Southeast Louisiana and South Mississippi, little to
no impact is anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time across southeast
Louisiana and south Mississippi.

* TORNADOES:
Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time across southeast
Louisiana and south Mississippi.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an
emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in
which you are staying and the name of the county or parish in which
it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay
attention for instructions from local authorities.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don`t drown!

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in New Orleans LA around 5 PM CDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

Coastal Flood Advisory

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1045 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

...COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

.A potential tropical cyclone will move through the coastal waters
over the next 48 hours. Strong onshore winds around the system
will cause some minor coastal flooding issues for the advised
area. Flooding of 1 to 3 feet are possible in the advised area.

LAZ040-050-058-060>064-067>070-072-MSZ080>082-172345-
/O.NEW.KLIX.CF.Y.0008.191017T1545Z-191019T1400Z/
St. Tammany-Livingston-St. John The Baptist-St. Charles-
Upper Jefferson-Orleans-Upper Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-
Lower Lafourche-Lower Jefferson-Lower Plaquemines-
Lower St. Bernard-Southern Tangipahoa-Hancock-Harrison-Jackson-
1045 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a Coastal
Flood Advisory, which is in effect until 9 AM CDT Saturday.

* COASTAL FLOODING...1 to 2 feet around Lake Pontchartrain and 1
  to 3 feet elsewhere

* TIMING...Early Friday morning through Saturday morning

* IMPACTS...Minor inundation of low lying areas around tidal
  lakes, bays, and the lower reaches of rivers and bayous. A few
  mainly secondary roadways could become covered in water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Coastal Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds and tides
will combine to generate flooding of low areas along the shore.

&&

$$