Web Portal Changes: The Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) hosted at https://water.weather.gov will be replaced by the National Water Prediction Service (NWPS), with a target of Spring 2024. Existing AHPS content and features will be preserved and expanded within NWPS. The NWS is now accepting feedback on NWPS. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/owp/operations for more information.

Experimental National Water Center Products: Flood Inundation Mapping services are now available for 10% of the U.S. population. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/owp/operations for more information. The National Hydrologic Discussion, Area Hydrologic Discussion, Flood Hazard Outlook, and real-time geospatial services depicting River Forecast Center and National Water Model forecasts, continue to be accessible via the URL above, as described in the StoryMap here.

DID YOU KNOW... Please try our new TEST hydrograph page link at: https://preview.water.noaa.gov/gauges/abcde - Just replace “abcde” with your local hydrograph five character ID found in the lower left corner of the hydrograph.  In late March of 2024, the base URL path will become water.noaa.gov.  Feedback can be provided HERE

Weather Forecast Office Buffalo, NY

Northeast River Forecast Center

Hydrograph

River at a Glance

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Probability Information Weekly Chance of Exceeding Levels Chance of Exceeding Levels During Entire Period Short-term Probabilistic Guidance (Experimental)

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Printable Image About this graph Tabular Data (UTC) Tabular Data (EST) Datum: NAVD88 Metadata

NOTE: Impact statements listed below may not be representative during times of ice jam flooding. NOTE: Gauge reading may be affected by ice. Forecast flows are unadjusted for ice. NOTE: Forecasts for the Black Creek at Churchville are issued routinely year-round.

Default Hydrograph Scale to Flood Categories   Return to Area Map

Flood Categories (in feet) Major Flood Stage: 8 Moderate Flood Stage: 7 Flood Stage: 6 Action Stage: 5 Low Stage (in feet): -9999 Historic Crests (1) 9.44 ft on 03/31/1960 (2) 9.19 ft on 01/09/1998 (3) 8.83 ft on 03/28/1950 (4) 8.52 ft on 03/30/1993 (5) 8.05 ft on 02/25/1985 Show More Historic Crests (P): Preliminary values subject to further review. Recent Crests (1) 6.85 ft on 02/24/2022 (2) 7.44 ft on 02/20/2022 (3) 6.38 ft on 05/07/2017 (4) 6.77 ft on 04/08/2017 (5) 7.99 ft on 12/23/2013 Show More Recent Crests (P): Preliminary values subject to further review. Low Water Records (1) 0.69 ft on 07/18/2016 (2) 0.72 ft on 07/23/2014 (3) 0.76 ft on 06/27/2016 (4) 0.93 ft on 09/15/1959 (5) 1.10 ft on 08/03/1999 Show More Low Water Records For more information on your flood risk go to www.floodsmart.gov. Show FEMA's National Flood Hazard Layers FEMA's National Flood Hazard Layers not showing? Why aren't the FEMA National Flood Hazard Layers showing on the ESRI Map? Possible reasons: There are no FEMA National Flood Hazard Layers for the location which you are viewing on ESRI Maps. The FEMA Web Mapping Service (WMS) is down. Note: Your zoom level may have changed. ESRI's zoom levels must be between 14 and 16 to show National Flood Hazard layers.

Zoom Level:16 Legend FEMA Layer Gauge Location Disclaimer Latitude/Longitude Disclaimer: The gauge location shown in the above map is the approximate location based on the latitude/longitude coordinates provided to the NWS by the gauge owner.

Flood Impacts & Photos

If you notice any errors in the below information, please contact our Webmaster
8	Major flood, extensive lowland flooding along entire reach of creek in Genesee and Monroe counties. Serious residential flooding Churchville, Chili, to the vicinity of the Rochester airport. Some backwater problems from the Genesee River east of Chili.
7	Moderate flood, widespread agricultural flooding along entire length of creek. Some residential flooding begins Churchville to Chili area. Possible road closures.
6	Flood stage, more widespread agricultural land flooding, some backyard and basement flooding Churchville to Chili but minimal damages.
5	Action stage, some localized overflow into agricultural lands near confluence with Genesee River.

About This Location

Latitude: 43.100556° N, Longitude: 77.882222° W, Horizontal Datum: NAD83/WGS84 River Stage Reference Frame Gauge Height Flood Stage Uses NWS stage 0 ft 6 ft Interpreting hydrographs and NWS watch, warnings, and forecasts, and inundation maps Vertical Datum Elevation (gauge height = 0) Elevation (gauge height = flood stage) Elevation information source NAVD88 551.30 ft 557.30 ft Survey grade GPS equipment, FEMA flood plain maps, newer USGS topographic maps NGVD 29 551.88 ft 557.88 ft Older USGS topographic maps, NGVD29 benchmarks MSL Not Available Not Available Older USGS topographic maps, MSL benchmarks Other Not Available Not Available   Current/Historical Observations: Corps of Engineers (COE) Info for Churchville U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Data and Site Info for Churchville

Additional Information

Potential River Levels Used to Estimate the Chance of Flooding and the Range of Possible River Levels 10 Day (HEFS) 7 Day (NAEFS) 7 Day (GEFS) Note: Use the official hydrograph at the top of this web page for river levels within the next 48 hours. See the Product Description Document link for more details on the interpretation of the 3,7 day graphics. Click individual graphics to enlarge. Observations Courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey.

Resources

Hydrologic Resources Text Products Past Precipitation Forecast Precipitation River Forecast Centers River Stage Summary Ohio Basin Water Resouces Outlook Inundation Mapping Locations

Additional Resources Area Hydrographs NWS Precipitation and River Forecasting AHPS Iframes for Developers Mobile iNWS for emergency management Northeast River Forecast Center Ohio River Forecast Center Snow Information Ensemble River Forecasts Hourly Precipitation

Collaborative Agencies The National Weather Service prepares its forecasts and other services in collaboration with agencies like the US Geological Survey, US Bureau of Reclamation, US Army Corps of Engineers, Natural Resource Conservation Service, National Park Service, ALERT Users Group, Bureau of Indian Affairs, and many state and local emergency managers across the country. For details, please click here. NWS Information National Weather Service Buffalo Weather Forecast Office 587 Aero Drive Buffalo, NY 14225-1405 (716) 565-0204 Ask Questions/Webmaster Page last modified: 2-Nov-2020 7:30 PM Disclaimer Credits Glossary Privacy Policy About Us Career Opportunities