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Experimental National Water Center Products: The National Hydrologic Discussion, Area Hydrologic Discussion, and Flood Hazard Outlook, and real-time geospatial services depicting River Forecast Center and National Water Model forecasts, continue to be accessible via https://www.weather.gov/owp/operations, as described in the StoryMap here.

Weather Forecast Office Wilmington, NC

Southeast River Forecast Center

Hydrograph

River at a Glance

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Probability Information Weekly Chance of Exceeding Levels Chance of Exceeding Levels During Entire Period Short-term Probabilistic Guidance (Experimental)

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Printable Image About this graph Tabular Data (UTC) Tabular Data (EDT) Datum: Not Available Metadata

NOTE: River forecasts for this location take into account past precipitation and the precipitation amounts expected approximately 48 hours into the future from the forecast issuance time. NOTE: Forecasts for the Cape Fear River at Elizabethtown are issued routinely year-round.

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Upstream Gauge

Downstream Gauge

Flood Categories (in feet) Major Flood Stage: 42 Moderate Flood Stage: 35 Flood Stage: 25 Action Stage: 20 Low Stage (in feet): -9999 Historic Crests (1) 43.20 ft on 09/23/1945 (2) 42.51 ft on 09/21/2018 (3) 39.10 ft on 09/23/1928 (4) 38.90 ft on 10/06/1929 (5) 36.44 ft on 10/11/2016 Show More Historic Crests (P): Preliminary values subject to further review. Recent Crests (1) 42.51 ft on 09/21/2018 (2) 36.44 ft on 10/11/2016 (3) 25.10 ft on 12/29/2015 (4) 26.20 ft on 03/11/2014 (5) 25.30 ft on 07/15/2013 Show More Recent Crests (P): Preliminary values subject to further review. Low Water Records (1) 11.30 ft on 07/23/2002 (2) 11.90 ft on 11/14/2001

Zoom Level:16 Legend FEMA Layer Gauge Location Disclaimer Latitude/Longitude Disclaimer: The gauge location shown in the above map is the approximate location based on the latitude/longitude coordinates provided to the NWS by the gauge owner.

Flood Impacts & Photos

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47	Considerable flooding will occur along the entire length of the river as well as near the city of Elizabethtown. U.S. 701 may be flooded north of the bridge over the river. Approximately 500 structures will be isolated or flooded on both sides of the river from the White Oak area down to Barney Coe Road including buildings along area creeks. Travel along the length of the river will be difficult or impossible due to high water and road closures.
43	Considerable flooding like 1945 flood will occur along the entire length of the river as well as near the city of Elizabethtown. Water may isolate or get into a few residences along Turnbull Creek near U.S. 701. Overall, there will be several hundred residences that are isolated by flood waters on both sides of the river from the White Oak area down Barney Coe Road and many buildings will be flooded. Travel along the length of the river will be significantly hampered by high water and road closures.
42	Airport Road near White’s Creek may become impassable within 24 hours. Portions of Highway 53 between U.S. 701 and White Oak will be closed. Water may approach a few residences along Turnbull Creek near U.S. 701. There will be hundreds of residences that are isolated by flood waters on both sides of the river from the White Oak area down to Barney Coe Road and many buildings may be flooded. Travel along the length of the river will be hampered by high water and road closures. Similar to Florence 2018.
40	Flood waters may begin to affect Airport Road near White’s Creek within 24 hours. Portions of Highway 53 between U.S. 701 and White Oak may be closed. Overall, there may be hundreds of residences that are isolated by flood waters on both sides of the river from the White Oak area down Barney Coe Road. Many of the lowest buildings in this area may be flooded. Travel along the length of the river may be hampered by high water and road closures. Brown’s Creek Nature Park will be flooded.
38	Portions of NC Highway 53 between U.S. 701 and White Oak may become impassable, possibly isolating many residences in the area. Overall, there may be hundreds of residences that are isolated by flood waters on both sides of the river from the White Oak area down to Barney Coe Road. Many of the lowest buildings in this area may be flooded. Travel along the length of the river may be hampered by high water and road closures.
36	Flood waters may begin to affect portions of NC Highway 53 between U.S. 701 and White Oak. Owen Hill Road near Bakers Creek becomes impassable. Additional residences along Barney Coe Road may become isolated and the lowest may be flooded. Dozens of buildings may be isolated or flooded along the river both upstream and downstream of Elizabethtown but most of are in areas between Owen Hill Road and the river as well as NC Route 53 and the river west of U.S. route 701. Browns Creek Nature Park begins to flood.
35	Flood waters may begin to affect Owen Hill Road near Bakers Creek. Dozens of buildings may be isolated or flooded along the river both upstream and downstream of Elizabethtown. However, most of are in areas between Owen Hill Road and the river as well as NC Route 53 and the river west of U.S. route 701.
33	Flood waters may get near residences areas along Ellis Creek closer to NC Route 53. Flooding may get near additional residences along Barney Coe Road. Elsewhere along the river, flooding worsens both upstream and downstream of Elizabethtown. Dozens of buildings in the area may be isolated and some may experience flooding.
32	Flood waters may isolate a few residences off Beagle Run Lane and flooding may occur along Rob Smith Lane. A couple of buildings nearer the river off Barney Coe Road may become isolated by flood waters. Elsewhere along the river, flooding worsens both upstream and downstream of Elizabethtown.
30	Flood waters may isolate residences off Larrimore Lane and Riverview Drive as Larrimore Lane becomes impassable. Dozens of buildings nearer the river may become isolated within several miles of Elizabethtown. Flooding may also affect Beagle Run Lane. Flooding of farm fields near the river worsens as does lowland flooding.
28	Flooding of farmers fields adjacent to the river will worsen. Larrimore Lane may begin to flood.
27	Floodwaters will affect farmers' fields adjacent to the river requiring the movement of farm equipment to higher ground. The lower part of Cape Owen Manor Road may become impassable.
25	Flood waters will reach the top of the navigational lock. The river will spread farther into lowlands, affecting building access roads closer to the river. A few buildings closer to the river may be cutoff by the flood waters. The lower part of Cape Owen Manor Road may begin to flood.
24	The river will continue to spread farther into lowlands along the river and may begin to affect building access roads closer to the river.
23	The river will spread further into lowlands along the river.
20	The river will spread into lowlands along the river and will begin to flood lowlands in Tory Hole Park.

About This Location

Latitude: 34.626667° N, Longitude: 78.578333° W, Horizontal Datum: NAD83/WGS84 River Stage Reference Frame Gauge Height Flood Stage Uses NWS stage 0 ft 25 ft Interpreting hydrographs and NWS watch, warnings, and forecasts, and inundation maps Vertical Datum Elevation (gauge height = 0) Elevation (gauge height = flood stage) Elevation information source NAVD88 Not Available Not Available Survey grade GPS equipment, FEMA flood plain maps, newer USGS topographic maps NGVD 29 Not Available Not Available Older USGS topographic maps, NGVD29 benchmarks MSL Not Available Not Available Older USGS topographic maps, MSL benchmarks Other 9.55 ft 34.55 ft

Additional Information

Potential River Levels Used to Estimate the Chance of Flooding and the Range of Possible River Levels 10 Day (HEFS) 10 Day (NAEFS) 10 Day (GEFS) Note: The official hydrograph at the top of this web page was made by a river forecaster using past rainfall and forecast rainfall for the next 48 hours. The Potential River Level graphics are computer generated and most useful for rain expected beyond 48 hours. Click individual graphics to enlarge.

Resources

Hydrologic Resources Text Products Past Precipitation Forecast Precipitation River Forecast Centers River Stage Summary Cape Fear River Basin Multimedia - Includes Photos and Panoramics Pee Dee River Basin Multimedia Inundation Mapping Locations

Additional Resources Area Hydrographs NWS Precipitation and River Forecasting AHPS Iframes for Developers Mobile iNWS for emergency management Southeast River Forecast Center Snow Information Ensemble River Forecasts Hourly Precipitation

Collaborative Agencies The National Weather Service prepares its forecasts and other services in collaboration with agencies like the US Geological Survey, US Bureau of Reclamation, US Army Corps of Engineers, Natural Resource Conservation Service, National Park Service, ALERT Users Group, Bureau of Indian Affairs, and many state and local emergency managers across the country. For details, please click here. NWS Information National Weather Service Wilmington Weather Forecast Office 2015 Gardner Drive Wilmington, NC 28405 (910) 762-4289 Ask Questions/Webmaster Page last modified: 2-Nov-2020 7:30 PM Disclaimer Credits Glossary Privacy Policy About Us Career Opportunities