Web Portal Changes: The Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) hosted at https://water.weather.gov will be replaced by the National Water Prediction Service (NWPS), with a target of March 2024. Existing AHPS content and features will be preserved and expanded within NWPS.

Experimental National Water Center Products: Flood Inundation Mapping services are now available for 10% of the U.S. population. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/owp/operations for more information. The National Hydrologic Discussion, Area Hydrologic Discussion, Flood Hazard Outlook, and real-time geospatial services depicting River Forecast Center and National Water Model forecasts, continue to be accessible via the URL above, as described in the StoryMap here.

Weather Forecast Office Tulsa, OK

Arkansas Red-Basin River Forecast Center

Hydrograph

River at a Glance

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Probability Information Weekly Chance of Exceeding Levels Chance of Exceeding Levels During Entire Period Short-term Probabilistic Guidance (Experimental)

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Printable Image About this graph Tabular Data (UTC) Tabular Data (CDT) Datum: Not Available Metadata

NOTE: River forecasts for this location take into account past precipitation and the precipitation amounts expected approximately 24 hours into the future from the forecast issuance time. NOTE: Forecasts for the Neosho River near Commerce are issued routinely year-round.

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Upstream Gauge

Flood Categories (in feet) Major Flood Stage: 24 Moderate Flood Stage: 18 Flood Stage: 15 Action Stage: 14 Low Stage (in feet): -9999 Historic Crests (1) 34.03 ft on 07/16/1951 (2) 29.25 ft on 07/05/2007 (3) 26.23 ft on 10/06/1986 (4) 25.66 ft on 04/13/1994 (5) 25.53 ft on 05/24/2019 Show More Historic Crests (P): Preliminary values subject to further review. Recent Crests (1) 18.27 ft on 06/07/2022 (2) 19.65 ft on 06/03/2022 (3) 20.87 ft on 05/07/2022 (4) 14.23 ft on 03/24/2022 (5) 20.60 ft on 07/19/2021 (P) Show More Recent Crests (P): Preliminary values subject to further review. Low Water Records Currently none available. For more information on your flood risk go to www.floodsmart.gov. Show FEMA's National Flood Hazard Layers FEMA's National Flood Hazard Layers not showing? Why aren't the FEMA National Flood Hazard Layers showing on the ESRI Map? Possible reasons: There are no FEMA National Flood Hazard Layers for the location which you are viewing on ESRI Maps. The FEMA Web Mapping Service (WMS) is down. Note: Your zoom level may have changed. ESRI's zoom levels must be between 14 and 16 to show National Flood Hazard layers.

Zoom Level:14 Legend FEMA Layer Gauge Location Disclaimer Latitude/Longitude Disclaimer: The gauge location shown in the above map is the approximate location based on the latitude/longitude coordinates provided to the NWS by the gauge owner.

Flood Impacts & Photos

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32	near catastrophic flooding occurs along the Neosho River. Large portions of the City of Miami suffer damages from high water. Suburban homes and business south of Miami will be severely flooded. The record high stage is 34.03 feet on July 16, 1951. This is an extremely dangerous and life threatening situation.
30	devastating flooding occurs. Large portions of the City of Miami suffer major damages. Suburban homes and businesses south of Miami experience severe flooding. The record high crest for the Neosho River is 34.03 feet on July 16, 1951. This is an extremely dangerous and life threatening situation.
28	very widespread and damaging flooding occurs. Suburban homes and businesses in Miami could see water rise up to several feet above floor levels. This will be the second highest crest exceeding the stage reached on October 6, 1986, when the Neosho River crested at 26.23 feet. The record high is 34.03 feet on July 16, 1951. This is an extremely dangerous and life threatening situation.
26	widespread and damaging flooding occurs. Some residential evacuation may be necessary. Suburban homes and businesses south of Miami could see water rise above floor levels. This will compare with the stage on October 6, 1986 when the Neosho River crested at 26.23 feet. This is an extremely dangerous and life threatening situation.
24	widespread and severe flooding occurs. Highway 125 south of Miami will be closed. Suburban homes and businesses south of Miami may be flooded. This is a dangerous and life threatening situation.
23	widespread flooding occurs. Riverview Park and the Ottawa County Fairgrounds becomes inundated. State Highway 125 south of Miami will be closed.
22	widespread flooding occurs along the Neosho River. Riverview Park becomes inundated and access roads to the Ottawa County Fairgrounds will be closed.
21	moderate agricultural flooding occurs. Some roads within Riverview Park become flooded including State Highway 125 near the fairgrounds.
20	moderate agricultural flooding occurs. Riverview Park experiences moderate flooding. State Highway 125 near the fairgrounds will be closed.
19	low lying areas around Miami become cut off from easy access. Riverview Park experiences moderate flooding. State Highway 125 near the fairgrounds will be threatened.
18	moderate agricultural flooding occurs with Riverview Park experiencing minor to moderate flooding. Low lying places around Miami may be cut off from easy access.
17	minor agricultural flooding occurs. Riverview Park experiences minor flooding.
16	minor agricultural flooding occurs. Riverview Park experiences minor flooding.
15	minor lowland flooding occurs. Low lying areas in Riverview Park experience minor flooding.
14	low lying areas along the river in Riverview Park are threatened by high water and faster flows are expected. Use extra caution or avoid recreational activities near the river. Interests near the river should continue to monitor later forecasts.
Photos (1) upstream (2) downstream

About This Location

Latitude: 36.928611° N, Longitude: 94.957222° W, Horizontal Datum: NAD83/WGS84 River Stage Reference Frame Gauge Height Flood Stage Uses NWS stage 0 ft 15 ft Interpreting hydrographs and NWS watch, warnings, and forecasts, and inundation maps Vertical Datum Elevation (gauge height = 0) Elevation (gauge height = flood stage) Elevation information source NAVD88 749.10 ft 764.10 ft Survey grade GPS equipment, FEMA flood plain maps, newer USGS topographic maps NGVD 29 748.97 ft 763.97 ft Older USGS topographic maps, NGVD29 benchmarks MSL Not Available Not Available Older USGS topographic maps, MSL benchmarks Other Not Available Not Available   Current/Historical Observations: Corps of Engineers (COE) Info for Commerce U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Data and Site Info for Commerce

Additional Information

Provisional Inundation Mapping for the Neosho River near Commerce is available.

Resources

Hydrologic Resources Text Products Past Precipitation Forecast Precipitation River Forecast Centers River Stage Summary Inundation Mapping Locations Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas Hydrology

Additional Resources Area Hydrographs NWS Precipitation and River Forecasting AHPS Iframes for Developers Mobile iNWS for emergency management Snow Information

Collaborative Agencies The National Weather Service prepares its forecasts and other services in collaboration with agencies like the US Geological Survey, US Bureau of Reclamation, US Army Corps of Engineers, Natural Resource Conservation Service, National Park Service, ALERT Users Group, Bureau of Indian Affairs, and many state and local emergency managers across the country. For details, please click here. NWS Information National Weather Service Tulsa Weather Forecast Office 10159 E. 11th St. Suite 300 Tulsa, OK 74128 (918) 838-7838 Ask Questions/Webmaster Page last modified: 2-Nov-2020 7:29 PM Disclaimer Credits Glossary Privacy Policy About Us Career Opportunities