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Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
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This probabilistic forecast is issued by the Northeast River Forecast Center.
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Experimental Short Range Forecast Uncertainty (AHPS) - External Links: Product Description Document | Customer Survey
About this graph
Forecasts for the East Branch of the Ausable River at Au Sable Forks are issued routinely year-round.
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Downstream Gauge Downstream Locations
Zoom Level:14
Flood Categories (in feet)
Major Flood Stage: 11
Moderate Flood Stage: 9
Flood Stage: 7
Action Stage: 6
Low Stage (in feet): -9999

Historic Crests
(1) 18.51 ft on 08/29/2011
(2) 15.22 ft on 11/09/1996
(3) 13.96 ft on 02/23/1990
(4) 13.27 ft on 01/12/2018
(5) 12.91 ft on 09/22/1938
Show More Historic Crests

(P): Preliminary values subject to further review.

Recent Crests
(1) 8.73 ft on 12/25/2020
(2) 7.61 ft on 08/05/2020
(3) 7.63 ft on 04/14/2020
(4) 7.82 ft on 01/12/2020
(5) 11.27 ft on 11/01/2019
Show More Recent Crests

(P): Preliminary values subject to further review.

Low Water Records
Currently none available.
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Gauge LocationGauge Map Marker
Disclaimer
Latitude/Longitude Disclaimer: The gauge location shown in the above map is the approximate location based on the latitude/longitude coordinates provided to the NWS by the gauge owner.
Flood Impacts & Photos Collapse
If you notice any errors in the below information, please contact our Webmaster
18 Record flooding will occur throughout the Ausable valley with numerous homes and businesses flooded or becoming isolated by high water. Large sections of Routes 9N and 73 will flood and become impassable. Ausable Village may become isolated with large areas of the town flooded, such as Main Street, the Main Street bridge and the Jersey bridge. Safe access to many homes and businesses will be blocked by high water.
15 Severe flooding will be seen throughout much of the Ausable Valley from Keene to Jay, downstream through Ausable Village and Keeseville. Numerous sections of Routes 9n and 73 will flood with some homes and businesses becoming isolated by high water, similar to the flood of November 1996. In Ausable Village, Grove Road, School Street, Intervale Avenue, and homes in the Jersey area will flood. In Keeseville, the wastewater treatment plant and several homes and businesses along Route 9 will flood.
13 Major flooding will occur in many portions of the Ausable Valley. In Ausable Village, homes in the Jersey area and other lowland areas will likely flood. Several feet of water will cover Intervale Avenue, and portions of Grove Road and School Street may experience high water. Sections of Routes 9N and 73 will flood. In Keeseville, the wastewater treatment plant, as well as homes and businesses along Route 9 will likely flood. This stage is equivalent to the FEMA 1 Percent Annual Chance Flood.
11 Major flooding will likely occur in portions of the Ausable River valley. In Ausable Village, homes in the Jersey area including Intervale Avenue will flood. Water will cover Route 9N near Stickney Bridge including Clark Lane and Carey Road. Water will approach Route 9N near Stone House Road. In Keeseville, the wastewater treatment plant and businesses along Route 9 may flood. In Keene, water will cover Hulls Falls Road, Routes 73 and 9N near Marcy field. The Keene business district may also flood.
10 Parkland and adjacent parking lots will flood in Ausable Forks. In Jay, portions of Route 9N near Stickney Bridge will flood. Water will back up onto Clark Lane and Carey Road. Downstream in Keeseville, water will approach businesses along north Ausable Street, as well as the Keeseville wastewater treatment plant. Upstream in Keene, water will cover Hulls Falls Road and Routes 73 and 9N near Marcy Field.
9 In Jay, water will approach Route 9N in the Stickney Bridge area. In Keene, water will cover Hulls Falls Road, and Routes 73 and 9N near Marcy Field.
8 In Jay, water will cover Route 9N near Trumbulls Corner. Minor flooding can occur in Keene. Water begins to overflow onto Hulls Falls Road, Route 73, and Route 9N near Marcy Field. High water will impact interests at Alice Falls near Keeseville.
7 Minor flooding can occur in Keene. Water begins to overflow onto Hulls Falls Road, Route 73, and Route 9N near Marcy Field. High water will impact interests at Alice Falls near Keeseville.
Photos
(1) Looking downstream toward Ausable village

Other Real-time and/or Archive Data Sources:

Additional Information Collapse
Potential River Levels - Used to
Potential River Levels
Used to Estimate the Chance of Flooding and the Range of Possible River Levels
10 Day (HEFS) 7 Day (NAEFS) 7 Day (GEFS)
HEFS Ensemble NAEFS Ensemble GEFS Ensemble

Note: Use the official hydrograph at the top of this web page for river levels within the next 48 hours.

See the Product Description Document link for more details on the interpretation of the 3,7 day graphics.

Click individual graphics to enlarge.

Near real-time webcam view of the East Branch of the Ausable at ASFN6
Collaborative Agencies Collapse
The National Weather Service prepares its forecasts and other services in collaboration with agencies like the US Geological Survey, US Bureau of Reclamation, US Army Corps of Engineers, Natural Resource Conservation Service, National Park Service, ALERT Users Group, Bureau of Indian Affairs, and many state and local emergency managers across the country. For details, please click here.
NWS Information
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South Burlington, VT 05403
(802) 862-2475
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Page last modified: 2-Nov-2020 7:30 PM
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