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This probabilistic forecast is issued by the Northeast River Forecast Center.
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About this graph
Forecasts for the Black Creek at Churchville are issued routinely year-round.
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Zoom Level:16
Flood Categories (in feet)
Major Flood Stage: 8
Moderate Flood Stage: 7
Flood Stage: 6
Action Stage: 5
Low Stage (in feet): -9999

Historic Crests
(1) 9.44 ft on 03/31/1960
(2) 9.19 ft on 01/09/1998
(3) 8.83 ft on 03/28/1950
(4) 8.52 ft on 03/30/1993
(5) 8.05 ft on 02/25/1985
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(P): Preliminary values subject to further review.

Recent Crests
(1) 6.20 ft on 01/27/2024
(2) 6.85 ft on 02/24/2022
(3) 7.44 ft on 02/20/2022
(4) 6.38 ft on 05/07/2017
(5) 6.77 ft on 04/08/2017
Show More Recent Crests

(P): Preliminary values subject to further review.

Low Water Records
(1) 0.69 ft on 07/18/2016
(2) 0.72 ft on 07/23/2014
(3) 0.76 ft on 06/27/2016
(4) 0.93 ft on 09/15/1959
(5) 1.10 ft on 08/03/1999
Show More Low Water Records
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Gauge LocationGauge Map Marker
Latitude/Longitude Disclaimer: The gauge location shown in the above map is the approximate location based on the latitude/longitude coordinates provided to the NWS by the gauge owner.
Flood Impacts & Photos Collapse
If you notice any errors in the below information, please contact our Webmaster
8 Major flood, extensive lowland flooding along entire reach of creek in Genesee and Monroe counties. Serious residential flooding Churchville, Chili, to the vicinity of the Rochester airport. Some backwater problems from the Genesee River east of Chili.
7 Moderate flood, widespread agricultural flooding along entire length of creek. Some residential flooding begins Churchville to Chili area. Possible road closures.
6 Flood stage, more widespread agricultural land flooding, some backyard and basement flooding Churchville to Chili but minimal damages.
5 Action stage, some localized overflow into agricultural lands near confluence with Genesee River.

Other Real-time and/or Archive Data Sources:

Additional Information Collapse
Potential River Levels
Used to Estimate the Chance of Flooding and the Range of Possible River Levels
10 Day (HEFS) 7 Day (NAEFS) 7 Day (GEFS)
HEFS Ensemble NAEFS Ensemble GEFS Ensemble

Note: Use the official hydrograph at the top of this web page for river levels within the next 48 hours.

See the Product Description Document link for more details on the interpretation of the 3,7 day graphics.

Click individual graphics to enlarge.

Observations Courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey.
Collaborative Agencies Collapse
The National Weather Service prepares its forecasts and other services in collaboration with agencies like the US Geological Survey, US Bureau of Reclamation, US Army Corps of Engineers, Natural Resource Conservation Service, National Park Service, ALERT Users Group, Bureau of Indian Affairs, and many state and local emergency managers across the country. For details, please click here.
NWS Information
National Weather Service
Buffalo Weather Forecast Office
587 Aero Drive
Buffalo, NY 14225-1405
(716) 565-0204
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Page last modified: 2-Nov-2020 7:30 PM
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