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This probabilistic forecast is issued by the Northeast River Forecast Center.
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Experimental Short Range Forecast Uncertainty (AHPS) - External Links: Product Description Document | Customer Survey
About this graph
Forecasts for the Ellicott Creek below Williamsville are issued routinely year-round.
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Zoom Level:16
Flood Categories (in feet)
Major Flood Stage: 12
Moderate Flood Stage: 10
Flood Stage: 8
Action Stage: 6
Low Stage (in feet): -9999

Historic Crests
(1) 11.59 ft on 03/31/1960
(2) 11.19 ft on 02/25/1985
(3) 10.35 ft on 12/29/2008
(4) 10.10 ft on 01/09/1998
(5) 9.94 ft on 01/25/1999
Show More Historic Crests

(P): Preliminary values subject to further review.

Recent Crests
(1) 8.36 ft on 02/19/2022
(2) 8.75 ft on 04/22/2017
(3) 9.07 ft on 11/26/2014
(4) 9.68 ft on 12/23/2013
(5) 8.04 ft on 03/09/2009
Show More Recent Crests

(P): Preliminary values subject to further review.

Low Water Records
(1) 0.73 ft on 07/27/1976
(2) 0.96 ft on 07/15/2011
(3) 0.98 ft on 05/19/2010
(4) 1.14 ft on 06/30/2012
(5) 1.15 ft on 02/26/2013
Show More Low Water Records
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Gauge LocationGauge Map Marker
Latitude/Longitude Disclaimer: The gauge location shown in the above map is the approximate location based on the latitude/longitude coordinates provided to the NWS by the gauge owner.
Flood Impacts & Photos Collapse
If you notice any errors in the below information, please contact our Webmaster
12 Major flood, widespread residential flooding. In Amherst, North Forest to Hopkins, Maple to French including Getzville. In Williamsville, Lehn Springs Drive. In Tonawanda, Ellicott Creek Road to Interstate 290, Colvin to Niagara Falls Blvd. In Cheektowaga and Lancaster, Aero Drive area, Bowmansville Fire Station area. UB bike path flooded.
10 Moderate flood, extensive flooding in Ellicott Creek Park and minor flooding in surrounding neighborhoods in Tonawanda. UB bike path flooded and closed. Aero Drive, Holtz to Transit Roads in Cheektowaga closed. Flooding around Bowmansville Fire Hall. Areas east of North Forest from Maple to French Roads subject to sewer backups.
8 Flood stage, some flooding begins along Aero Drive from Holtz to Transit Roads in Cheektowaga. Also some flooding along the flood control project area in Amherst such as the bike path and golf course. Minor flooding in Ellicott Creek Park. Little or no overall damage.
6 Action stage, high flows. No flooding.

Other Real-time and/or Archive Data Sources:

Additional Information Collapse
Potential River Levels
Used to Estimate the Chance of Flooding and the Range of Possible River Levels
10 Day (HEFS) 7 Day (NAEFS) 7 Day (GEFS)
HEFS Ensemble NAEFS Ensemble GEFS Ensemble

Note: Use the official hydrograph at the top of this web page for river levels within the next 48 hours.

See the Product Description Document link for more details on the interpretation of the 3,7 day graphics.

Click individual graphics to enlarge.

Observations courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey.
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The National Weather Service prepares its forecasts and other services in collaboration with agencies like the US Geological Survey, US Bureau of Reclamation, US Army Corps of Engineers, Natural Resource Conservation Service, National Park Service, ALERT Users Group, Bureau of Indian Affairs, and many state and local emergency managers across the country. For details, please click here.
NWS Information
National Weather Service
Buffalo Weather Forecast Office
587 Aero Drive
Buffalo, NY 14225-1405
(716) 565-0204
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Page last modified: 2-Nov-2020 7:30 PM
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