Skip Navigation Link  
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
Image background of Navigation bar Left
Navigation Bar End Cap


This probabilistic forecast is issued by the Southeast River Forecast Center.
tab left off Hydrograph tab right off tab left off River at a Glance tab right off tab left off Download tab right off tab left off Inundation
tab right off tab left on tab right on
About this graph
Forecasts for the N.E. Cape Fear River near Burgaw are issued as needed during times of high water, but are not routinely available.
Return to Area Map

Upstream Gauge - near Chinquapin Upstream Gauge
Zoom Level:14
Flood Categories (in feet)
Major Flood Stage: 16
Moderate Flood Stage: 12
Flood Stage: 10
Action Stage: 7
Low Stage (in feet): -9999

Historic Crests
(1) 25.57 ft on 09/19/2018
(2) 22.48 ft on 09/19/1999
(3) 17.81 ft on 10/13/2016
(4) 16.64 ft on 09/05/2006
(5) 15.37 ft on 11/26/2006
Show More Historic Crests

(P): Preliminary values subject to further review.

Recent Crests
(1) 10.87 ft on 02/12/2020
(2) 11.02 ft on 12/19/2018
(3) 6.70 ft on 11/19/2018
(4) 25.57 ft on 09/19/2018
(5) 8.07 ft on 01/17/2018
Show More Recent Crests

(P): Preliminary values subject to further review.

Low Water Records
(1) -0.50 ft on 12/17/2007
(2) -0.18 ft on 01/02/2002
(3) -0.17 ft on 05/13/2010
(4) -0.05 ft on 07/23/2010
(5) -0.02 ft on 04/26/2001
Show More Low Water Records
KML Image
Gauge LocationGauge Map Marker
Latitude/Longitude Disclaimer: The gauge location shown in the above map is the approximate location based on the latitude/longitude coordinates provided to the NWS by the gauge owner.
Flood Impacts & Photos Collapse
If you notice any errors in the below information, please contact our Webmaster
22.4 12 miles of Highway 53 are underwater,in some cases 7 feet deep, between the Northeast Cape Fear bridge and Maple Hill. All homes including 60 in River Bend, 20 to 25 in River Birch and 12 in the Alligator Lake subdivision are flooded. 20 to 30 homes in Holly Shelter estates are underwater. In the Sandy Bend subdivision, off Shaw Highway, 40 to 50 homes, which is half of the homes in the subdivision sustain flooding. Portions of Croomsbridge, Island Creek and White Stocking Roads are underwater.
16.5 White Stocking Road is closed and floodwaters begin to get into the homes in this area. Highway 53 is closed adjacent to the river. Stag Park Road has water 2 feet deep on it and becomes impassable.
16 Water begins to get into homes, including those that are elevated, in the River Birch and River Bend subdivisions. Floodwaters also get into homes on Croomsbridge Road.
15.25 The approaches to the bridge at Lanes Ferry on Highway 210 may be flooded. Much of White Stocking Road is closed. At the wildlife ramp on Shaw Highway, ramp is underwater and parking lot is half full of water.
14 Floodwaters cause portions of Shaw Highway to be closed between Carl Meeks Road and Lillington Lane. White Stocking Road is also closed from Chorley Road to Mack Williams Lane. Flooding worsens on Highways 210 and 53 but roads remain open.
13.5 Floodwaters begin to affect Highway 53, Highway 210, White Stocking Road, Shaw Highway and Holly Shelter Road. Roads are passable but have water on them.
12.5 Floodwaters cause roads to become impassable in the River Bend, River Birch and Alligator Lake subdivisions off Highway 53. These areas become isolated due to the floodwaters and some evacuations may be needed. In the Holly Shelter Estates subdivision, half of the area has water on the roads due to floodwaters. Approximately 12 homes on Old Maple Hill Road off Shaw Highway become isolated.
12 Flooding worsens in the River Bend, River Birch and Alligator Lake subdivisions off Highway 53 on the east bank of the river. Floodwaters continue to rise on Croomsbridge Road and Old Maple Hill Road. Holly Shelter Estates and the Sandy Bend subdivision begin to be affected.
11.5 Floodwaters begin to affect roads in Alligator Lake subdivision. Flooding worsens in the River Bend and River Birch subdivisions and along Croomsbridge Road and Old Maple Hill Road.
11 Floodwaters continue to rise and affect roads in the River Bend and River Birch subdivisions off Highway 53 along the east bank of the river. Portions of Croomsbridge Road and Old Maple Hill Road become impassable.
10.5 Flood waters cause minor flooding of Croomsbridge Road and Old Maple Hill Road. Some roads in River Bend and River Birch subdivsions become impassable.
10 Minor flooding of roads in the River Bend and River Birch subdivisions. Flooding of Croomsbridge Road begins west of the bridge over the river.
8 Water affects the lowest portions of River Bend Road and River Birch Road.

Other Real-time and/or Archive Data Sources:

Additional Information Collapse
Potential River Levels - Used to
Potential River Levels
Used to Estimate the Chance of Flooding and the Range of Possible River Levels
10 Day (HEFS) 7 Day (NAEFS) 7 Day (GEFS)
HEFS Ensemble NAEFS Ensemble GEFS Ensemble

Note: The official hydrograph at the top of this web page was made by a river forecaster using past rainfall and forecast rainfall for the next 48 hours. The Potential River Level graphics are computer generated and most useful for rain expected beyond 48 hours.

Click individual graphics to enlarge.

Collaborative Agencies Collapse
The National Weather Service prepares its forecasts and other services in collaboration with agencies like the US Geological Survey, US Bureau of Reclamation, US Army Corps of Engineers, Natural Resource Conservation Service, National Park Service, ALERT Users Group, Bureau of Indian Affairs, and many state and local emergency managers across the country. For details, please click here.
NWS Information
National Weather Service
Wilmington Weather Forecast Office
2015 Gardner Drive
Wilmington, NC 28405
(910) 762-4289
Ask Questions/Webmaster
Page last modified: 2-Nov-2020 7:30 PM
Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities