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This probabilistic forecast is issued by the Southeast River Forecast Center.

	Hydrograph			River at a Glance			Download			Probability Information Weekly Chance of Exceeding Levels Chance of Exceeding Levels During Entire Period Short-term Probabilistic Guidance (Experimental)

About this graph

Forecasts for the Cape Fear River at Lock 1 are issued routinely year-round.

Return to Area Map

Upstream Gauge

Zoom Level:14

Flood Categories (in feet)

Major Flood Stage:	28
Moderate Flood Stage:	26
Flood Stage:	24
Action Stage:	22
Low Stage (in feet):	-9999

Historic Crests
(1) 30.68 ft on 09/21/2018
(2) 29.80 ft on 09/23/1945
(3) 28.58 ft on 10/13/2016
(4) 26.00 ft on 10/09/1964
(5) 24.92 ft on 03/03/1979
Show More Historic Crests

(P): Preliminary values subject to further review.

Recent Crests
(1) 23.27 ft on 02/12/2020
(2) 19.63 ft on 04/26/2019
(3) 20.18 ft on 04/12/2019
(4) 19.69 ft on 03/24/2019
(5) 20.37 ft on 03/07/2019
Show More Recent Crests

(P): Preliminary values subject to further review.

Low Water Records
(1) 13.97 ft on 08/10/2002
(2) 14.28 ft on 10/18/2007
(3) 14.45 ft on 09/12/2007
(4) 14.46 ft on 11/11/2006
(5) 14.52 ft on 08/16/2007
Show More Low Water Records

	Gauge Location	Disclaimer
Latitude/Longitude Disclaimer: The gauge location shown in the above map is the approximate location based on the latitude/longitude coordinates provided to the NWS by the gauge owner.

Flood Impacts & Photos

If you notice any errors in the below information, please contact our Webmaster
30	Flooding similar to Hurricane Florence in 2018. Highway 11 between the Cape Fear River and Natmore Road near Kelly will be flooded. The Canetuck area may be flooded. Several roads near Kelly and Canetuck may be flooded. The railroad between Navassa and Wilmington may flood as the crest works downstream and moderate or higher tidal flooding will occur at downtown Wilmington within a week of the crest at Lock 1.
28	Flooding similar to Hurricane Matthew in 2016. Highway 11 between the Cape Fear River and Natmore Road near Kelly will be flooded. The Canetuck area may be flooded especially if the Black River is also flooding. The railroad between Navassa and Wilmington may flood as the crest works downstream and moderate or higher tidal flooding will occur at downtown Wilmington within a week of the crest at Lock 1.
26	Highway 11 will begin to flood between the Cape Fear River and Natmore Road. Other roads near Kelly and Canetuck may flood. Moderate flooding of swamps and low lands. Flooding similar to that reached with the remnants of Hurricane Hilda in 1964.
24	24 Water will top the lock at Lock and Dam 1 near Kelly. Widespread lowland flooding will occur along the river. North Elwell Ferry Road will be flooded on both sites of the river near the ferry landing.
20	North Elwell Ferry Road will likely be flooded north of the river near the ferry landing. Lowland flooding along the river.
19	North Elwell Ferry Road will begin to flood north of the river near the ferry landing. Lowland flooding along the river.
Photos (1) USGS Gage at Cape Fear Lock 1

Other Real-time and/or Archive Data Sources:

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Data and Site Info for Lock 1

Additional Information

Potential River Levels - Used to

Potential River Levels Used to Estimate the Chance of Flooding and the Range of Possible River Levels
10 Day (HEFS)	10 Day (NAEFS)	10 Day (GEFS)

Note: The official hydrograph at the top of this web page was made by a river forecaster using past rainfall and forecast rainfall for the next 48 hours. The Potential River Level graphics are computer generated and most useful for rain expected beyond 48 hours.

Click individual graphics to enlarge.

Collaborative Agencies

The National Weather Service prepares its forecasts and other services in collaboration with agencies like the US Geological Survey, US Bureau of Reclamation, US Army Corps of Engineers, Natural Resource Conservation Service, National Park Service, ALERT Users Group, Bureau of Indian Affairs, and many state and local emergency managers across the country. For details, please click here.

NWS Information

National Weather Service
Wilmington Weather Forecast Office
2015 Gardner Drive
Wilmington, NC 28405
(910) 762-4289
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Page last modified: 2-Nov-2020 7:30 PM

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