National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

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This probabilistic forecast is issued by the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center.

	Hydrograph			River at a Glance			Download			Probability Information Weekly Chance of Exceeding Levels Chance of Exceeding Levels During Entire Period Short-term Probabilistic Guidance (Experimental)

About this graph

Forecasts for the Rappahannock River above Fredericksburg are issued routinely year-round.

Return to Area Map

Upstream Gauge

Zoom Level:14

Flood Categories (in feet)

Major Flood Stage:	23
Moderate Flood Stage:	16
Flood Stage:	13
Action Stage:	10
Low Stage (in feet):	-9999

Historic Crests
(1) 25.90 ft on 10/16/1942
(2) 25.14 ft on 04/26/1937
(3) 22.56 ft on 06/22/1972
(4) 17.97 ft on 09/07/1996
(5) 17.55 ft on 06/23/2018
Show More Historic Crests

(P): Preliminary values subject to further review.

Recent Crests
(1) 13.04 ft on 01/10/2024 (P)
(2) 17.55 ft on 06/23/2018
(3) 13.32 ft on 05/17/2014
(4) 15.43 ft on 05/01/2014
(5) 11.27 ft on 04/18/2011
Show More Recent Crests

(P): Preliminary values subject to further review.

Low Water Records
Currently none available.

	Gauge Location	Disclaimer
Latitude/Longitude Disclaimer: The gauge location shown in the above map is the approximate location based on the latitude/longitude coordinates provided to the NWS by the gauge owner.

Flood Impacts & Photos

If you notice any errors in the below information, please contact our Webmaster
23	Water covers significant sections of River Road. Multiple structures upstream of Fredericksburg area also affected. Downstream, significant flooding is likely in the city of Fredericksburg.
20	Water is above the top of the first floor at a riverside wedding venue upstream of Fredericksburg.
16	Water begins to cover River Road upstream of the city of Fredericksburg. Structures near the Motts Run boat landing are flooded.
13	Water covers the Riverside Trail off River Road upstream of Fredericksburg. Water also enters a building at a riverside wedding venue, and begins to cover the parking lot at the Motts Run boat landing.
12	Water begins to cover grassy areas near the mouth of Motts Run.
10	Water exceeds bankfull upstream of the tidal interface, but no property is affected.
3.2	The Friends of the Rappahannock recommend that river levels greater than this are unsafe to recreation.
Photos (1) View of Rappahannock River at gauge site

Other Real-time and/or Archive Data Sources:

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Data and Site Info for Fredericksburg

Additional Information

Potential River Levels - Used to

Potential River Levels Used to Estimate the Chance of Flooding and the Range of Possible River Levels
10 Day (HEFS)	7 Day (NAEFS)	7 Day (GEFS)

Note: Use the official hydrograph at the top of this web page for river levels within the next 72 hours.

Click individual graphics to enlarge.

Collaborative Agencies

The National Weather Service prepares its forecasts and other services in collaboration with agencies like the US Geological Survey, US Bureau of Reclamation, US Army Corps of Engineers, Natural Resource Conservation Service, National Park Service, ALERT Users Group, Bureau of Indian Affairs, and many state and local emergency managers across the country. For details, please click here.

NWS Information

National Weather Service
(Baltimore/Washington) Sterling Weather Forecast Office
43858 Weather Service Rd.
Sterling, VA 20166
(571) 888-3500
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Page last modified: 2-Nov-2020 7:30 PM

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