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This probabilistic forecast is issued by the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center.
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About this graph
Forecasts for the South Fork Shenandoah River at Front Royal are issued routinely year-round.
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Upstream Gauge - at Luray Upstream Gauge Downstream Gauge Downstream Gauge - at Millville
Zoom Level:14
Flood Categories (in feet)
Major Flood Stage: 18
Moderate Flood Stage: 14
Flood Stage: 12
Action Stage: 8
Low Stage (in feet): -9999

Historic Crests
(1) 34.80 ft on 10/16/1942
(2) 32.57 ft on 09/07/1996
(3) 32.43 ft on 11/06/1985
(4) 26.01 ft on 03/18/1936
(5) 25.20 ft on 01/20/1996
Show More Historic Crests

(P): Preliminary values subject to further review.

Recent Crests
(1) 8.06 ft on 03/02/2021
(2) 14.34 ft on 09/19/2018
(3) 16.52 ft on 06/04/2018
(4) 12.07 ft on 05/17/2014
(5) 11.19 ft on 05/18/2011
Show More Recent Crests

(P): Preliminary values subject to further review.

Low Water Records
(1) 0.60 ft on 01/30/1934
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Gauge LocationGauge Map Marker
Latitude/Longitude Disclaimer: The gauge location shown in the above map is the approximate location based on the latitude/longitude coordinates provided to the NWS by the gauge owner.
Flood Impacts & Photos Collapse
If you notice any errors in the below information, please contact our Webmaster
24 Catlett Mountain Road begins to flood.
22 Water approaches structures on Rivermont Acres Drive.
20 Backwater from the river reaches South River Road. Floodwaters cover the Indian Hollow Road bridge.
18 Significant portions of the railroad tracks running along the southwest side of Front Royal are flooded.
17 Backwater from the river reaches Rivermont Acres Drive. Water also approaches the Shenandoah Farms subdivision and covers a walking trail near the Front Royal boat ramp.
16 Floodwaters approach lower portions of Shenandoah Shores Estates.
14 Railroad tracks along the river south of Front Royal begin to flood. Water approaches structures in Riverton.
12 Backwater begins to creep up Luray Avenue toward the railroad trestle. A riverside parking area at the end of Luray Avenue is flooded.
10 Hay fields near the gauge begin to flood.
8 A boat ramp near the end of Luray Avenue south of Front Royal floods. A second boat ramp near Bentonville also floods.

Other Real-time and/or Archive Data Sources:

Additional Information Collapse
Potential River Levels - Used to
Potential River Levels
Used to Estimate the Chance of Flooding and the Range of Possible River Levels
10 Day (HEFS) 7 Day (NAEFS) 7 Day (GEFS)
HEFS Ensemble NAEFS Ensemble GEFS Ensemble

Note: Use the official hydrograph at the top of this web page for river levels within the next 72 hours.

Click individual graphics to enlarge.

Collaborative Agencies Collapse
The National Weather Service prepares its forecasts and other services in collaboration with agencies like the US Geological Survey, US Bureau of Reclamation, US Army Corps of Engineers, Natural Resource Conservation Service, National Park Service, ALERT Users Group, Bureau of Indian Affairs, and many state and local emergency managers across the country. For details, please click here.
NWS Information
National Weather Service
(Baltimore/Washington) Sterling Weather Forecast Office
43858 Weather Service Rd.
Sterling, VA 20166
(703) 996-2200
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Page last modified: 2-Nov-2020 7:30 PM
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