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Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
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This probabilistic forecast is issued by the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center.
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Experimental Short Range Forecast Uncertainty (AHPS) - External Links: Product Description Document | Customer Survey
About this graph
Forecasts for the Goose Creek near Leesburg are issued routinely year-round.
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Zoom Level:14
Flood Categories (in feet)
Major Flood Stage: 18
Moderate Flood Stage: 15
Flood Stage: 12
Action Stage: 10
Low Stage (in feet): -9999

Historic Crests
(1) 30.59 ft on 06/22/1972
(2) 29.00 ft on 06/01/1889
(3) 26.86 ft on 08/26/1937
(4) 25.74 ft on 10/09/1976
(5) 23.32 ft on 09/23/2003
Show More Historic Crests

(P): Preliminary values subject to further review.

Recent Crests
(1) 14.17 ft on 03/22/2019
(2) 14.75 ft on 12/16/2018
(3) 12.60 ft on 09/28/2018
(4) 12.15 ft on 09/30/2015
(5) 15.58 ft on 05/16/2014
Show More Recent Crests

(P): Preliminary values subject to further review.

Low Water Records
Currently none available.
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Gauge LocationGauge Map Marker
Disclaimer
Latitude/Longitude Disclaimer: The gauge location shown in the above map is the approximate location based on the latitude/longitude coordinates provided to the NWS by the gauge owner.
Flood Impacts & Photos Collapse
If you notice any errors in the below information, please contact our Webmaster
23 Highway 15, Evergreen Mills Road, and Lime Kiln Road are all flooded. Tributary flooding strands residents near Oatlands Mill.
20 Highway 15 is flooded south of Leesburg.
18 Water threatens several homes south of Leesburg. Highway 15 will likely have to be closed.
16 Water reaches Highway 15 near the intersection with Oatlands Mill Road.
15 Water approaches a home near Highway 15 south of Leesburg.
14 Water approaches low spots along State Route 733, Lime Kiln Road. Water is in the backyards of homes near Highway 15, and reaches the underside of two low bridges over the creek at Crooked Bridge Lane.
13 Water reaches backyards near Highway 15 south of Leesburg. A low spot on State Route 650, Oatlands Road, is flooded.
12 The creek overflows its banks near Oatlands, south of Leesburg. Backwater flooding begins to affect a low spot on State Route 650, Oatlands Road.
11 The creek reaches bankfull. Some minor overbank flooding is occurring between Middleburg and Oatlands.
10 Water begins to overflow the banks near Evergreen Mill into nearby fields.

Other Real-time and/or Archive Data Sources:

Additional Information Collapse
Potential River Levels - Used to
Potential River Levels
Used to Estimate the Chance of Flooding and the Range of Possible River Levels
3 Day (SREF) 7 Day (NAEFS) 7 Day (GEFS)
SREF Ensemble NAEFS Ensemble  GEFS Ensemble 

Note: Use the official hydrograph at the top of this web page for river levels within the next 48 hours.

See the Product Description Document link for more details on the interpretation of the 3,7 day graphics. 

Click individual graphics to enlarge.

Collaborative Agencies Collapse
The National Weather Service prepares its forecasts and other services in collaboration with agencies like the US Geological Survey, US Bureau of Reclamation, US Army Corps of Engineers, Natural Resource Conservation Service, National Park Service, ALERT Users Group, Bureau of Indian Affairs, and many state and local emergency managers across the country. For details, please click here.
NWS Information
National Weather Service
(Baltimore/Washington) Sterling Weather Forecast Office
43858 Weather Service Rd.
Sterling, VA 20166
(703) 996-2200
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Page last modified: 5-Mar-2019 11:43 PM
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