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This probabilistic forecast is issued by the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center.
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Experimental Short Range Forecast Uncertainty (AHPS) - External Links: Product Description Document | Customer Survey
About this graph
Forecasts for the South Fork Shenandoah River near Lynnwood are issued routinely year-round.
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Downstream Gauge Downstream Gauge - at Luray
Zoom Level:14
Flood Categories (in feet)
Major Flood Stage: 20
Moderate Flood Stage: 17
Flood Stage: 16
Action Stage: 14
Low Stage (in feet): -9999

Historic Crests
(1) 30.84 ft on 09/07/1996
(2) 29.46 ft on 11/05/1985
(3) 27.20 ft on 10/15/1942
(4) 26.57 ft on 03/18/1936
(5) 24.88 ft on 01/19/1996
Show More Historic Crests

(P): Preliminary values subject to further review.

Recent Crests
(1) 20.16 ft on 09/18/2018
(2) 19.93 ft on 04/17/2011
(3) 19.09 ft on 01/25/2010
(4) 22.38 ft on 09/19/2003 (P)
(5) 17.49 ft on 02/18/1998
Show More Recent Crests

(P): Preliminary values subject to further review.

Low Water Records
(1) 1.60 ft on 09/20/1932
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Gauge LocationGauge Map Marker
Disclaimer
Latitude/Longitude Disclaimer: The gauge location shown in the above map is the approximate location based on the latitude/longitude coordinates provided to the NWS by the gauge owner.
Flood Impacts & Photos Collapse
If you notice any errors in the below information, please contact our Webmaster
25 Water reaches homes in Elkton off Old Spottswood Trail. Water also approaches the Island Ford Road bridge near Berrytown. Numerous other structures and roads are inundated by this major flood.
22 Numerous homes are flooded between Lynnwood and Elkton, including in Berrytown. Numerous roads along and crossing the river are also flooded. Water is also approaching railroad tracks south of Elkton.
20 Several homes and other buildings between Lynnwood and Elkton are flooded. Significant agricultural flooding is occurring on both sides of the river.
17 Farmland on both banks of the river begin to flood between Lynnwood and Port Republic. Water covers Flank Circle in Lynnwood and approaches homes in that area. Portions of Power Dam Road and Captain Yancey Road between Lynnwood and Berrytown are also flooded.
16 Lowlands near the river, and low spots of Power Dam Road, begin to flood.
14 Water begins to overflow the banks but little impact is observed.

Other Real-time and/or Archive Data Sources:

Additional Information Collapse
Potential River Levels - Used to
Potential River Levels
Used to Estimate the Chance of Flooding and the Range of Possible River Levels
3 Day (SREF) 7 Day (NAEFS) 7 Day (GEFS)
SREF Ensemble NAEFS Ensemble  GEFS Ensemble 

Note: Use the official hydrograph at the top of this web page for river levels within the next 48 hours.

See the Product Description Document link for more details on the interpretation of the 3,7 day graphics. 

Click individual graphics to enlarge.

Collaborative Agencies Collapse
The National Weather Service prepares its forecasts and other services in collaboration with agencies like the US Geological Survey, US Bureau of Reclamation, US Army Corps of Engineers, Natural Resource Conservation Service, National Park Service, ALERT Users Group, Bureau of Indian Affairs, and many state and local emergency managers across the country. For details, please click here.
NWS Information
National Weather Service
(Baltimore/Washington) Sterling Weather Forecast Office
43858 Weather Service Rd.
Sterling, VA 20166
(703) 996-2200
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Page last modified: 6-Nov-2019 2:41 PM
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