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This probabilistic forecast is issued by the Southeast River Forecast Center.

	Hydrograph			River at a Glance			Download			Probability Information Weekly Chance of Exceeding Levels Not Available Short-term Probabilistic Guidance (Experimental) Chance of Exceeding Levels During Entire Period Not Available

For official forecast click here

Experimental Short Range Forecast Uncertainty (AHPS) - External Links: Product Description Document | Customer Survey

About this graph

Forecasts for the South Fork Black Creek near Penney Farms are issued as needed during times of high water, but are not routinely available.

More information on datums is available at www.ngs.noaa.gov/faq.shtml

Return to Area Map

Zoom Level:14

Flood Categories (in feet)

Major Flood Stage:	20
Moderate Flood Stage:	17.5
Flood Stage:	14.5
Action Stage:	10
Low Stage (in feet):	0.5

Historic Crests
(1) 29.36 ft on 09/11/2017
(2) 26.33 ft on 10/19/1944
(3) 25.21 ft on 05/21/1959
(4) 23.68 ft on 05/03/2013
(5) 22.71 ft on 02/03/1970
(6) 22.60 ft on 09/24/1947
(7) 22.57 ft on 04/27/1997
(8) 22.03 ft on 09/30/1969
(9) 21.65 ft on 10/21/1941
(10) 21.25 ft on 10/19/1950
Show More Historic Crests

(P): Preliminary values subject to further review.

Recent Crests
(1) 15.28 ft on 12/18/2023
(2) 15.88 ft on 03/12/2022
(3) 15.33 ft on 07/08/2021
(4) 14.69 ft on 05/31/2018
(5) 29.36 ft on 09/11/2017
(6) 14.85 ft on 06/28/2017
(7) 16.51 ft on 10/08/2016
(8) 14.99 ft on 09/01/2015
(9) 15.33 ft on 08/31/2015
(10) 16.29 ft on 07/13/2014
Show More Recent Crests

(P): Preliminary values subject to further review.

Low Water Records
(1) -0.07 ft on 05/30/2007
(2) -0.05 ft on 08/24/2007
(3) -0.03 ft on 06/11/2007
(4) -0.01 ft on 05/27/2012
(5) 0.01 ft on 06/23/2011
Show More Low Water Records

	Gauge Location	Disclaimer
Latitude/Longitude Disclaimer: The gauge location shown in the above map is the approximate location based on the latitude/longitude coordinates provided to the NWS by the gauge owner.

Flood Impacts & Photos

If you notice any errors in the below information, please contact our Webmaster
20	Significant flooding of homes and property along the entire South Fork Basin begin. This includes property along Creek Street, Black Creek Drive and Lightning Lane. Thunder Road and other main access roads along the creek become impassable. Evacuations in low lying areas are expected.
17.5	Flooding begins to impact numerous homes and structures along Creek Street, Black Creek Drive and Lightning Lane. Access to homes will be cut off by flood waters. Evacuations in low lying areas may be necessary.
16	Flooding of low lying structures along Creek Street begins. Creek Street and driveways leading to Black Creek Drive become impassable. Movement of property to higher ground is recommended.
14.5	Flooding begins to impact low lying driveways and access roads along Creek Street, Black Creek Drive and Lightning Lane. Docks and other low lying property along the creek begin to flood.
10	Should water levels continue rising, preparations to protect property should begin.

Other Real-time and/or Archive Data Sources:

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Data and Site Info for Penney Farms

Additional Information

Collaborative Agencies

The National Weather Service prepares its forecasts and other services in collaboration with agencies like the US Geological Survey, US Bureau of Reclamation, US Army Corps of Engineers, Natural Resource Conservation Service, National Park Service, ALERT Users Group, Bureau of Indian Affairs, and many state and local emergency managers across the country. For details, please click here.

NWS Information

National Weather Service
Jacksonville Weather Forecast Office
13701 Fang Drive
Jacksonville, FL 32218
(904) 741-4370
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Page last modified: 2-Nov-2020 7:30 PM

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