Skip Navigation Link  
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
Image background of Navigation bar Left
Navigation Bar End Cap


This probabilistic forecast is issued by the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center.
tab left off Hydrograph tab right off tab left off River at a Glance tab right off tab left off Download tab right off tab left on tab right on
About this graph
Forecasts for the Rappahannock River above Fredericksburg are issued routinely year-round.
Return to Area Map

Upstream Locations Upstream Gauge
Zoom Level:14
Flood Categories (in feet)
Major Flood Stage: 23
Moderate Flood Stage: 16
Flood Stage: 13
Action Stage: 10
Low Stage (in feet): -9999

Historic Crests
(1) 25.90 ft on 10/16/1942
(2) 25.14 ft on 04/26/1937
(3) 22.56 ft on 06/22/1972
(4) 17.97 ft on 09/07/1996
(5) 17.55 ft on 06/23/2018
Show More Historic Crests

(P): Preliminary values subject to further review.

Recent Crests
(1) 13.04 ft on 01/10/2024 (P)
(2) 17.55 ft on 06/23/2018
(3) 13.32 ft on 05/17/2014
(4) 15.43 ft on 05/01/2014
(5) 11.27 ft on 04/18/2011
Show More Recent Crests

(P): Preliminary values subject to further review.

Low Water Records
Currently none available.
KML Image
Gauge LocationGauge Map Marker
Latitude/Longitude Disclaimer: The gauge location shown in the above map is the approximate location based on the latitude/longitude coordinates provided to the NWS by the gauge owner.
Flood Impacts & Photos Collapse
If you notice any errors in the below information, please contact our Webmaster
23 Water covers significant sections of River Road. Multiple structures upstream of Fredericksburg area also affected. Downstream, significant flooding is likely in the city of Fredericksburg.
20 Water is above the top of the first floor at a riverside wedding venue upstream of Fredericksburg.
16 Water begins to cover River Road upstream of the city of Fredericksburg. Structures near the Motts Run boat landing are flooded.
13 Water covers the Riverside Trail off River Road upstream of Fredericksburg. Water also enters a building at a riverside wedding venue, and begins to cover the parking lot at the Motts Run boat landing.
12 Water begins to cover grassy areas near the mouth of Motts Run.
10 Water exceeds bankfull upstream of the tidal interface, but no property is affected.
3.2 The Friends of the Rappahannock recommend that river levels greater than this are unsafe to recreation.
(1) View of Rappahannock River at gauge site

Other Real-time and/or Archive Data Sources:

Additional Information Collapse
Potential River Levels - Used to
Potential River Levels
Used to Estimate the Chance of Flooding and the Range of Possible River Levels
10 Day (HEFS) 7 Day (NAEFS) 7 Day (GEFS)
HEFS Ensemble NAEFS Ensemble GEFS Ensemble

Note: Use the official hydrograph at the top of this web page for river levels within the next 72 hours.

Click individual graphics to enlarge.

Collaborative Agencies Collapse
The National Weather Service prepares its forecasts and other services in collaboration with agencies like the US Geological Survey, US Bureau of Reclamation, US Army Corps of Engineers, Natural Resource Conservation Service, National Park Service, ALERT Users Group, Bureau of Indian Affairs, and many state and local emergency managers across the country. For details, please click here.
NWS Information
National Weather Service
(Baltimore/Washington) Sterling Weather Forecast Office
43858 Weather Service Rd.
Sterling, VA 20166
(571) 888-3500
Ask Questions/Webmaster
Page last modified: 2-Nov-2020 7:30 PM
Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities